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Klawchat 2/8/18
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Keith Law
2:02
I've lived a thousand years and it never bothered me. Klawchat.
Bob W.
2:02
Curious: for your analyses, do you keep it simple with basic spreadsheet functionality only, or do you also use specialized analytical and statistical packages, as in B-school stats courses?
Keith Law
2:03
I don't use any specialized software; if I had access to Statcast or Trackman data, then I would need to because of the sheer quantity of data involved.
Bill G
2:03
Thanks as always for your excellent work on the prospects.  I am interested in your take on Jorge Lopez, who made your top 100 2 years ago and now has fallen completely off your lists.  Do you believe he has a future in MLB, in what role?  Thanks again!
Keith Law
2:04
Still think he's a big league starter, maybe more of a back-end guy than I once believed. He had family issues that probably contributed to his 2016 season - a sick kid, I think? - but also I hope the Brewers learned not to send pitching prospects to Colorado Springs. No good comes of pitching there.
Rob
2:04
A couple months back in a chat you said " I like music that’s interesting, that boasts something like strong melodies, intelligent lyrics, technical proficiency, new sounds or textures."   Have you ever done a deep dive on Regina Spektor?   She's got it all.  Her middle albums are especially spectacular.
Keith Law
2:04
Deep, no, mostly because I haven't loved enough of her singles for that. She does write great lyrics, though.
BE
2:04
Do you find the "you hate my team" comments more amusing or irritating? As a Tigers fan, its amazing how much negativity I read about you, even though you spent 5 pages of Smart Baseball supporting Tram and Lou.
Keith Law
2:07
Any fan, reader, or Twitter follower who accuses me of hating his favorite team is telling me one thing: He's dumb. (It's always men, BTW.) It's truly a lack of intelligence - there's no way I could do this job effectively if I carried actual biases against any organizations. And now, with nearly 12 years on the job, I have a sufficient body of work to point to positive and negative things I've said about every team. A bunch of Padre man-babies got all mad online because I said, repeatedly, that Trevor 28 WAR Hoffman was not worthy of being a Hall of Famer, and many accused me of anti-Padre bias, which 1) is silly as I've praised their farm system incessantly for two-plus years and 2) who the fuck would even bother to hate the Padres?
Ah, that felt good.
Thomas
2:07
Assuming he's their starting third baseman, what should Tigers fans realistically expect from Jeimer Candelario this season?
Keith Law
2:07
High average, mediocre OBP, more doubles than homers, below average defense. Dude can put the bat on the ball, though.
Greg
2:07
Hi Keith,
Would be interested what players you would have on top of a list of hitters with the highest ceiling at least 2 plus years away from the majors. Yasel Antuna? R Rojas? Gabriel Arias?
Thanks for your work, only reason I just renewed insider.
Keith Law
2:08
That list would be dominated by guys on my top 100, though. You're looking for deeper names than that, for which I'd suggest looking at the Sleeper I listed for each org. Those are usually players 2+ years away with big upsides; if I list someone closer, or with a more modest ceiling, it's because the org is devoid of the type of player I'd prefer.
Greg
2:08
Which player would you Wander to if you had a choice?
Keith Law
2:08
Greg, even if I Wander, I'm keeping you in sight.
Rocky Mountain High
2:08
Whom do you expect to give more of a push to Arrenaudo in the future, Welker or Vilade? Not saying they take the job from him, but the guy that gives management thought about the next Rockies 3B.
Keith Law
2:09
Vilade. He might be a stud. Team USA staff loved him as a player and a person. I have generally gotten negative enough reports on Welker's defense to think he at least has a chance to move off that position.
Scott
2:09
With the Mets making every possible roster move to banish the newly sculpted Dominic Smith to Vegas where he has already proven he can rake (and get himself out of shape), if you were running a rebuilding team would you be aggressive and make them an offer they can't refuse?
Keith Law
2:09
Yes. I think he's an obvious guy to target.
Dana
2:09
Would you hit Judge/Stanton/Sanchez 2-3-4 or break them up somehow with a lefty?
Keith Law
2:10
I think inserting a LHB for its own sake just ends up costing a better hitter at bats. If they were L-L-L, that would be a different story.
Kyle Tucker
2:10
Am I on the opening roster or do I come up in June?  What should Astro fans expect of me ?
Keith Law
2:10
I would be surprised if you were up before September.
Philadelphia resident
2:10
Can you explain why people ruin their cities when they win a championship ?
Keith Law
2:11
Or when they lose. That's the part I don't get - they were going to riot and burn the city down either way. Oh, excuse me, they were going to overzealously celebrate the city down. Only people of color riot.
Ben
2:11
Headed to Chicago in a couple weeks to see NGHFB.  Any must-hit spots for food that one person can get into on short notice?   Or any Chicago pizza recommendations?
Keith Law
2:12
New Girls Hit the Fuckin' Block? Monteverde is my favorite restaurant in Chicago. Publican & their lunch offshoot are great. Any Rick Bayliss place (Frontera is the flagship) will be excellent. They don't serve pizza in Chicago - they serve bread with stuff on it.
Archie
2:12
I get the frustration of agents, however, how many of them would buy a Camry today because that is all they could afford without going into debt, instead of waiting until next year when they can buy a Ferrari with cash?
Keith Law
2:12
You have kind of hinted at the principal-agent problem, though.
Chris
2:12
Can the Mets get anything for Nimmo or Cecchini?  I don't see how their values improve with glut of players in majors at their positions for Mets.
Keith Law
2:12
Maybe a comparable fringe big leaguer - trade one of them for a useful bullpen piece or fifth starter?
Logic
2:12
I think the sports media is missing the actual dynamics of this years free agent market.  If there is collusion, it's with the agents not the owners.  Agents, primarily Scott Boras have decided to let their players sit if they don't get their customary irrational owner driven contracts.  In addition, by doing this they can suggest collusion by owners due to the inactivity the agents are creating.  Quite smart.  Your thoughts
Keith Law
2:13
Disagree. Agents do talk - they're allowed to - but I don't think there's this grand conspiracy either.
Evan
2:13
What do you think of the Todd Frazier deal?
Keith Law
2:14
Yawn. Really didn't make much sense for the Mets, unless they just wanted to find another way to limit Dom's playing time. And I don't think Frazier's one-year walk-rate spike is sustainable.
Amy
2:14
If the redsox sign JDM, when Pedroia is out, would it make sense to play JDM is LF, Benintendi in right (or center), and Mookie at 2nd? Hanley DH.
Keith Law
2:15
I legit thought you were going to suggest playing JDM at second. I may need some caffeine. (Also, Brock Holt probably ends up on the field somewhere there.)
Aaron C.
2:15
With the release of PECOTA projections this week, I have a *general* question: How should fans view projections? "For entertainment purposes only" or is there some underlying value for fans and/or analysts such as yourself?
Keith Law
2:16
Projections come with error bars, and PECOTA has long been explicit about things like best- or worst-case scenarios - here's a stat line for this player that would be in the top 10% of outcomes for him, so it's not likely, but an analysis of his past performance, physical details, and whatever other inputs they use says this is possible.
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