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Klawchat 3/11/21
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Chip
1:27
Klaw (kaw!, kaw!), do you think Rutschman can hit in MLB this year?
Keith Law
1:28
It would depend on your standard. Hit enough to be an average regular? Yeah, I'll buy that. Hit enough to be a star in 2021? Seems optimistic.
Ben (MN)
1:28
In this era, I don't understand how teams can have an "edge" or be so much better than other teams in certain areas, other than in short stints. For instance, the Athletic had an article this week about whether some teams are better at increasing velocity than others. It now seems commonplace for teams to target staff from these smart organizations, and it would follow that those staff bring knowledge of that "edge" with them. When teams do find an edge, do they usually have some kind of internal strategy to keep that edge as long as possible?  Do teams just assume that edge is temporary and look for the next competitive advantage?
Keith Law
1:28
The last sentence is probably the most accurate but if teams really wanted to retain some of those edges for longer, they'd pay their staff more, rather than shedding staff as so many teams did last year under cover of the pandemic.
John
1:29
Thanks for the chat Keith! I have not heard much on Yadier Alvarez since the Dodgers DFA’d him last spring. Is he still with the club or have a future in the majors?
Keith Law
1:29
I may be way out of date but I thought he'd walked away. He has - had? - a ridiculously good arm, though.
Noah
1:29
Getting my second dose of the vaccine on Monday!  How do we convince the 30% or so anti-vax people to get it?  Herd immunity is usually cited as being achieved at around 90%.  You're good with the numbers and facts and whatnot.  If only 70% get vaccinated, will those that are vaccinated be safe?
Keith Law
1:31
If you're vaccinated, you'll be safe from severe illness leading to hospitalization and possibly death. That's a good outcome, but we aren't likely to reach enough people without mandates (school & workplace) to get rid of the virus as a regular feature of life. You can be vaccinated and still get a mild case. Also, it's not that 30% of the population is anti-vaccine; maybe 2-3% are truly anti-vaxxers, but the population as a whole has been fed so much disinformation, with Twitter, Facebook, and Youtube particularly culpable for letting it fester on their services, that people who get all their other shots (or get them for their kids) are now needlessly hesitant over this one.
Chip
1:31
Is Kenyon Yovan's bat impressive enough to make him a prospect at DH?
Keith Law
1:31
I don't think so - enough to be drafted, yes, but not enough to be, say, a top two rounds prospect.
Gums
1:32
Taillon seems to be the latest to switch to a shorter arm swing, a la Shane Bieber. Do you believe this lessens the injury risk for pitchers, and does it bode well for Leiter's future as he has a similar arm path?
Keith Law
1:32
I don't know about injury risk, but it has worked for many pitchers who had trouble repeating longer arm strokes, leading to worse command.
Adam D.
1:32
Do you believe the narrative that we have reached a "golden era" for prospects with more potentially high-end, young players in the minors than ever before? Or do you feel like the increased focus on prospects in general have just made a lot more of them known to fans in general, thus making it seem like there are more GUYS out there?
Keith Law
1:32
I think prospects are coming into pro ball bigger and stronger than they have at any point in history. That's probably a big reason.
Phil in the UK
1:32
True or False: Counting sacrifice flies against a hitter's on-base percentage is illogical, and the rule should be changed.
Keith Law
1:33
False. It's completely logical. A sac fly results in an out. It should count as an at bat too.
Arty
1:33
Derrick Goold ran an article about how Delvin Perez committed himself to adding muscle and he's supposed put on 20 pounds since 2019. I was a bit surprised he was invited to major league camp, but apparently reports on his progress are positive. From what you've seen of him, would getting stronger and adding weight help put him back into true prospect consideration?
Keith Law
1:34
He also has to hit. Yes, he's had trouble with impact because he's so small, but really he has to hit for us to have any discussion of his prospect status. Other than his draft spring, which ended with a positive test for a PED, he has never really hit well enough to project as an everyday player.
Noah
1:34
If the Mets don't sign Lindor to an extension ASAP, can we stop pretending like Steve Cohen has done anything fundamentally good or different than the Wilpons?  In fact, he might be actively worse.
Keith Law
1:34
I don't agree with that assessment.
John
1:34
Will voting rights actually be preserved prior to 2022?
Keith Law
1:35
God I hope so. It's going to take some actual courage on the part of some Senate Democrats and perhaps a Republican or two.
Ben
1:35
Where would the top three arms in this year's class (Leiter, Rocker, & Hill) rank among the last few pitching classes? Is this trio stronger than some of the last classes of top college arms?
Keith Law
1:38
I think they are - they're at least on par with recent years. Likely better than 2020, definitely better than 2019, 2018, 2017, and 2016.
ChrisP
1:39
Is Braves' Michael Harris a guy or a GUY?
Keith Law
1:39
More potential than GUY right now. Has to go out and hit. If he does that, he's a GUY because of his other tools.
Sean M.
1:39
Also, just bought Smart Baseball. Great stuff so far- was fun remembering that twelve months I wondered if Edgardo Alfonso and Rich Aurillia were studs.
Keith Law
1:40
Thank you. Alfonzo was a guy I wanted to be better - seemed like he was capable of so much more and then you looked at some slightly advanced stats and realized he just didn't produce.
Michael
1:40
Went down a rabbit hole of a GOP friend's FB page and she's trying to tell people the vaccine is dangerous, posting "articles" that link to supposed deaths after getting the vaccine or from the vaccine. Lots of people agreeing with her. Aside from deleting my FB account, do you have any advice for dealing with these types of people?
Keith Law
1:40
I would suggest at least an attempt to reason with her, for her own good and the good of your community, but with the expectation that it'll go nowhere.
Jason
1:40
Does the addition of JBJ make the Brewers a slight favorite in the NL Central? I’m still expecting a tight 3 team race.
Keith Law
1:41
It helps them, certainly - good to see someone else trying to improve besides the Cardinals. I'd like to see the Brewers flip Garcia for some pitching.
Alan & Lou - Detroit
1:41
Give me some good news on the Tigers as a Detroit sports fan. Any chance they don't finish in last like the Wings, Pistons, and Lions?
Keith Law
1:41
They're very likely to finish last, but you should get a lot of Mize, Manning, Skubal this year, and that's worth the price of admission.
Shane Bieber
1:41
Is skill or durability a bigger roadblock for Triston McKenzie becoming an ace?
Keith Law
1:41
Durability.
Concerned Fan
1:41
Keith, Yoan Moncada was visibly in pain last season as he played through complications from his COVID-19 experience. Now, he claims that he feels healthy and strong. But how can we be sure that he is not a victim of long-lasting COVID respiratory issues that will prevent him from being a high-level athlete ever again?
Keith Law
1:42
We can't, can we? I didn't realize he was struggling to that extent but he can't be the only one.
Andrew Vaughn
1:42
Given that Andrew Vaughn is slated to be the White Sox full-time DH this year, how do you think he'll adjust to MLB pitching? Love him as a prospect but worried that he'll be overmatched right away.
Keith Law
1:43
My one worry would be that he might be too passive early on, and have to adjust that. I don't think he's just up there to walk, but that's a big leap in ball/strike distinctions (and thus in required recognition) from college and a brief stint in A-ball to the majors with a year off in the middle.
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