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Klawchat 3/21/18
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Keith Law
1:00
When expectations make no sense ... Klawchat.
Aaron Gershoff
1:00
Thank you for not sticking to baseball - one dimensional people suck. How many execs ask you for your advice on players? Obviously you have contacts all over baseball, just wondering if it goes both ways.
Keith Law
1:00
I talk to execs & scouts often about players and we share opinions in both directions. Whether that counts as 'advice' is kind of up to you. I'd rather not be any more specific.
Jeremy
1:00
Can you help sort out the Braves SP stable of SP Folty, Newcomb, Wisler, Gohara, Sims, Allard, Soroka, Wright & Touki? Thanks Klaw!
Keith Law
1:02
I have a feeling the natural attrition of starters will sort it out before I do. I think Wright is the top guy in that list, with the highest probability of remaining a starter, and Sims or Wisler at the bottom. Gohara, Soroka, and Allard are all on that starter/reliever bubble.
Sean
1:02
Keith, at this point how high can you see Connor Scott rising in the draft?  Is the top 10 possible, a la Austin Beck?
Keith Law
1:02
At this point, no. That's not to say it can't happen come June, but I haven't heard anything like that on Scott. By this time last year Beck was already getting that sort of hype.
Max
1:02
Hi Keith. Why Willy Adames is so high ranked in prospect lists? Is it the sum of the parts? Because I can't see a single tool that stands out.
Keith Law
1:03
Doesn't have to have a standout tool to be an above-average regular. He's also hit well for his age at every level, including AAA, and projects to play somewhere on the dirt.
Moe Mentum
1:03
Is there anything you *don't* like about being an Ivy League graduate? Maybe things like loftier expectations, presumed snobbishness, or something else that a prospective student might not consider?
Keith Law
1:04
My academic experience there wasn't great; classes are large, and you're taught more by grad students than by professors, so while I can say, for example, I took a class from Martin Feldstein (one-time head of the CEA under Reagan), it's not like I ever got with 100 meters of the guy. It's also probably not an ideal environment for a student with untreated anxiety, which I was. Being a graduate, however, is mostly upside. I get the occasional asshat who thinks any time I mention my alma mater I'm bragging, but that's the internet for you.
Patrick
1:05
Good afternoon Keith! Which spring training locale is better suited for you to scout, AZ or FLA?
Keith Law
1:05
Arizona all day every day. One hotel for the entire month. Florida for me is often a new hotel each night. And Arizona has better food, better weather, and better roads. This may flip when Arizona runs out of water in three to five years, though.
Sean
1:06
Keith,  Have we reached a point where the only way we'll see a HS RHP taken 1-1 is if that player agrees to discount his value significantly enough to mitigate his risk profile?
Keith Law
1:07
What you will need is a prep RHP who checks all the boxes but has little/no interest in college or a commitment to a strong program. The biggest obstacle for recent top prep right-handers has been perceived price tags.
Deke
1:07
Would you consider your minor league scouting of Eric Hosmer to be a hit or a miss? He is a bona fide major leaguer with legitimate skill, but this feels at least multiple steps below what you and others envisioned for him.
Keith Law
1:07
Probably neither; he's had stretches where he's played like everyone expected, and longer stretches where he hasn't.
George
1:07
Torres to AAA isn't completely unreasonable, right?
Keith Law
1:08
I thought all along this was the right move. I am less enamored with demoting Andujar in favor of major leaguers who are marginally better.
Camden
1:08
How would you describe MacKenzie Gore’s ceiling?
Keith Law
1:08
Number one starter.
EJ
1:08
Obviously the spring is a tiny sample size, but if you were the Angels would you start Ohtani in AAA or in the bigs?
Keith Law
1:09
Don't care about spring stats, as you know. If he's not able to figure out this delivery issue - I wrote he's not repeating it and getting to his release point - before Opening Day, I might leave him in extended spring training to get some one-on-one work in controlled situations. I think sending him to Salt Lake is kind of a bad idea all around, other than that the Buzz's ownership would be ecstatic.
ScottyD in Snowy Malvern, PA
1:09
The Blue Jays - Are they trying to contend in 2018 or just holding the fort until the new kids are ready in 2019 like Guerrero Jr., Bichette, Gurriel, Alford et al.?
Keith Law
1:10
I can't see them contending this year; they'd need exceptional health across the board plus several breakout years. I think they're holding the fort, as you say, for Vlad Jr. and Bichette. I don't think Gurriel belongs in that last sentence, though.
WhiteSoxAndy
1:10
Will Michael Kopech be up this year or will he spend the entire year in the minors?
Keith Law
1:10
My guess is he debuts after the All-Star Break.
Seth
1:11
I'm happy that Alex Cobb got market value, considering all the players who had to take much less than they deserve. But what in the world are the Orioles doing? Did they have their heads in a ditch and miss the memo on "collusion"?
Keith Law
1:11
I liked the deal. As long as he's healthy, that's a contract with trade value. He'll give them some innings they need - their rotation is bad, potentially awful - and there's still some performance upside here. I don't love them giving up a pick, but otherwise I think it's fair value for a good pitcher who should get better.
Andrew
1:11
Outside of Acuna, which of the Braves' prospects has impressed most in Spring Training?
Keith Law
1:12
I'll be in Atlanta camp Sunday and/or Monday.
Mike
1:12
How will Anthopolous impact Atlanta's draft tendencies, if at all? With Bridges still being there, will they still lean towards upside, high school players, or does Anthopolous have a different reputation?
Keith Law
1:13
That was Anthopoulos' preference in Toronto - they aimed high, went for the best player available, took some calculated gambles. I don't expect a huge shift; if there's a change, it might be that they're less likely to take someone like Kyle Muller, who was more stuff and size at age 18 than athleticism or potential upside in command/refinement.
Travis
1:13
What are your thoughts on Greyson Jenista?
Keith Law
1:14
Weather permitting I will see him in about ten days. I hear he and Bohm are potential end of the first round guys, maybe a little better as college bats always run up the board on draft day.
Greg
1:14
Any recent draft buzz inside the top 10? Guys moving up or down?
Keith Law
1:14
Too early for that.
Mr. Nerdstrom
1:14
If you had to guess, which of the 30 bench coaches in MLB is most likely to land a managing gig in the next couple of seasons?
Keith Law
1:14
I doubt I could name even 3 current bench coaches in the majors.
Greg
1:14
Thinking about Atlanta's international limitations, is there anywhere they can shift that money that would make sense and still benefit the organization?
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