JotCast | Klawchat 3/26/21

Klawchat 3/26/21

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Keith Law

1:32

He can really run, and there's enough bat-to-ball there to make that play, so even if he's never actually good he should be an exciting player.

Danyul

1:33

Hi Keith - what role do you see garrett crochet playing for the sox this year

Keith Law

1:33

Reliever only, if he stays healthy.

Nick V

1:34

Has Groome's ceiling lowered significantly due to his injury induced absences? I understand his bust potential is through the roof right now, but has any reports on his stuff being surprisingly good/bad?

Keith Law

1:34

No, his ceiling hasn't lowered significantly. His curveball is more a 60 now than a 70, so it's a little lower, but that's the only real negative indicator right now.

Luke

1:35

Keith, loved the book. Can you speak to how the base rate affects the evaluation of Mississippi high schoolers (for example)? I understand how HS catchers and pitchers form a base rate, but for a geographic area what’s the commonality that should lump them into the same group? Level of competition?

Keith Law

1:36

Yes, level of competition. Applies to cold-weather kids too, although we've had more successes from high schools in the northeast than in Mississippi. There could be other variables involved as well - perhaps kids from the northeast are more likely to come from economically advantaged backgrounds that let them pay for outside coaching, or train at better facilities, or just get into more games.

Guest

1:36

Loved seeing the highlights of Rocker and Leiter recently. However, every time I see their pitch counts I think of you. Does their workload concern you at all?

Keith Law

1:36

It's at the upper end of what PitchSmart considers acceptable. I'd really like to see Vanderbilt stop pushing them so hard every week. There's just no good reason for it.

Santaspirt

1:37

What to make of DJ LeMahieu? Barely an average hitter by wRC+ in Colorado and then completely changes in NY

Keith Law

1:37

He's made substantial use of the ballpark in the Bronx. Look at his home runs and where they've landed.

Guest

1:37

I know it's just spring training, but the way Bell and Schwarber and Zimmerman (always a slow starter) have been swinging the bat in Florida has to bode well for the Nats' lineup depth, right? Not that they're all going to carry 1.100 OPS all year, but if they're hitting pretty well this year that could have a major impact on the NL East. It feels like Washington has the widest variance range between "pretty forgettable" (if the bats aren't there) and "95 wins" (if they all come up box cars).

Keith Law

1:38

Wrong. It's just spring training. All of those guys could suck this year (I'm not predicting that) and three good weeks in March doesn't change the probability of that happening.

Justin

1:38

Just watching some highlights, it seems like Rocker puts the ball where he wants it more often than Leiter does the same (granted, this is just a small sample in what Pitching Ninja provides on twitter), but I think Leiter is known as being the one more likely to have good command long term. What are some things that scouts look for to say that someone without good present command may have good command someday.

Keith Law

1:39

That's not accurate - Leiter does that at least as well as Rocker does. The biggest difference I hear from scouts on those two is that Leiter misses more bats with his fastball right now, while Rocker can show you a 70 slider (but hasn't done so every start).

Generic MLB Player

1:39

Just so you know, I am in the absolute best shape of my career!

Keith Law

1:39

Good to hear! I am not.

justin g

1:39

Fernando Tatis was terrible the end of last year. Is it possible that his initial numbers are a mirage?

Keith Law

1:40

You're asking if about 3 weeks in September tell us more than a year-plus of data that preceded it?

Jason (DC)

1:40

Keeper league fantasy baseball and looking to add a prospect bat. Who do you like most long-term out of Nolan Gorman, Jarren Duran, Brandon Marsh, or Heliot Ramos? Thank you.

Keith Law

1:40

I'd go Duran, Marsh, Ramos, Gorman, in that order.

Pramit

1:40

I know that you (and many) tend not to fall for the "he's in the best shape of his life" narrative that is created during the spring, but would you say Vlad's weight loss could result in him having a breakout this year?

Keith Law

1:41

His weight never affected him at the plate. It's how he swings. He's hitting the ball hard but not squaring it up enough, getting on top of it to put it on the ground. Fix that and go have a milkshake.

eric

1:41

got my second pfizer shot, no issues, and the piece of mind and hope it brings is amazing.

EVERYONE: IF YOU CAN GET VACCINATED, GET VACCINATED!

Keith Law

1:42

Absolutely. I'm hoping Delaware will open it up to my category on the 1st. We're so behind here.

Frank

1:42

Is there any chance Bobby Witt Jr makes the club for opening day? Considering they are not going to contend this year wouldnt the royals be crazy not to manipulate his service time?

Keith Law

1:43

Witt Jr has never played a pro game outside of the complexes. I think promoting him what was once considered six levels and now would be five in one fell swoop would be, to use the technical term, crazy-go-nuts.

Jack

1:44

Is there any chance MLB actually moves the all-star game from Atlanta?

Keith Law

1:44

I doubt it - I really doubt it - but shame on everyone involved with a conscience if they don't try.

Dave

1:44

Will Ryan McMahon ever happen?

Keith Law

1:44

I'm still in the yes camp. I know Sarah Langs of MLB.com called him a breakout candidate for 2021 too.

Eric

1:44

the apatow-type early-to-mid 2000s blockbuster comedies (40 yr old virgin, anchorman, old school, etc.) couldn't - and shouldn't - be made today. how does one reconcile laughing at and enjoying and quoting content that may have not struck one as super offensive 15-20 years ago, but now realizing how inappropriate and offensive it was to so many marginalized communities?

Keith Law

1:46

You have to draw that line for yourself. I believe works of art are largely products of their times. I happen to really like The Scarlet Pimpernel as a novel, but the anti-Semitic trope of the wandering Jew character would make it unpublishable today (for good reason), so it wouldn't appear on any of my future rankings of novels, and I wouldn't recommend that my kids read it. It popped up on a reading list for my daughter's school when she was in 8th grade and I suggested that they reconsider it. Yet I also can recognize that the adventure story within is one of the best I've read in literature.

Kevin

1:47

what are the odds we see either a work stoppage or a strike for the 22 season?

Keith Law

1:47

Better than even.

Cory

1:47

Would you say that Lawlar, Rocker, and Leiter are clearly separating themselves from the rest of the draft class in their own tier, or is that still too early to say?

Keith Law

1:48

Take Lawlar out of that ... he hasn't looked like a top 3 guy so far. I don't think 1-1 can be anyone but the two Vandy boys right now, but I also don't think there's an enormous gap between them and the next tier of college guys (Davis, del Castillo, Hoglund).

Mike

1:48

Banning the shift is ridiculous, right?

Keith Law

1:48

Yes.

Dan

1:50

Is it at least slightly concerning that someone as polished as Torkelson has struck out 13 times in 24 PA this spring?

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