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Klawchat 3/4/22
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Keith Law
1:48
Sure. Follow the money and see who funded those legislators.
John
1:48
You’ve often referred in passing to your belief that a drafted HS player should go ahead and sign, rather than going to college. I apologize if you’ve done this and I missed it, but can you elaborate? I suspect part of your opinion is based on MLB’s scholarship for players after they stop playing. But considering that scholarship is taxable income (still valuable, but effectively not a full scholarship), is there a certain level in the later rounds of the draft where the player should consider going to college instead?
Keith Law
1:49
It's a generalization, but yes, the scholarship plan is a big part of it, as is the need to capitalize right now in case your value as a player is peaking. The blanket assumption that all players will be better at 21 than they were at 18 is not accurate. Guys get hurt. Guys plateau, or regress. Guys get out of shape. They flunk out of school, or get in trouble. Sometimes you peak at 18. I'm not a Bruce Springsteen fan but isn't that the whole point of that insipid song?
Sage
1:50
Any interest in coming to Chicago's pizza fest?  
https://chicagopizzafestival.com/
Keith Law
1:50
Are they serving actual pizza, or just the thing they call "pizza" in chicago?
Daniel
1:50
Does Will Smith or Diego Cartaya have the versatility to play a different position? Seems that will have to come up soon
Keith Law
1:50
Cross that bridge when you get there - which I think is at least two years away.
TomBruno23
1:51
What are your thoughts, if any (I guess some if you post this Q) about Jeter leaving the Marlins?
Keith Law
1:51
I really don't know what the cause was, which leaves me feeling like there's little I can say of value here. I did point out that Jeter brought Gary Denbo and some other people over from the Yankees, and I don't know if their job status was tied to him at all.
Dr. Bob
1:52
It seems to me that the guys who might really benefit from the lockout are guys who were probably going to be called up this year but aren't yet on the 40-man roster. They'll get a normal ST and then play in AAA to show how they're advancing. Then when play starts, they'll be ready.
Keith Law
1:52
Quite possible, and then maybe they get a full year of service out of the shortened season?
Matt
1:52
Honest question, not intended to be confrontational. Is there any political issue that you lean right (or even moderate) on? You seem to take a very left, progressive position on every issue I've seen discussed.
Keith Law
1:56
I don't think that's accurate at all; I take pro-science, evidence-based positions. I believe in the separation of church and state, as the Establishment Clause of our Constitution guarantees. I believe that tax policies should be guided by evidence on what is likely to do the most economic good, and that using the tax code to guide behaviors is, at least, not always good policy, and often amounts to paternalism. (A tobacco tax to fund health care may make economic sense; a tobacco tax to deter people from smoking may not, and do I really care if you smoke yourself to death as long as I'm not trying to eat over here?) I think your inaccurate impression is a framing problem: When the "right" is this far from the center, rational, evidence-based ideas may seem "left."
David
1:56
For the reader who asked about New Orleans food, I can vouch for Cochon. I still remember the ribs, pickled watermelon and iced tea that I got there.
Keith Law
1:56
Glad to hear they're still going.
Mike P
1:56
Isn't it sad that we consider things like acknowledging the threat of climate change, making it easier rather than harder for people to vote and allowing women to control their own reproductive rights to be "liberal" or "progressive," and not mainstream?
Keith Law
1:57
Or accepting what scientists have known for a half a century, that gender and biological sex are not binary? Or that vaccines are safe and effective, which is backed by a hundred years of evidence?
Brian
1:57
We've officially hit the point where Tucker Carlson is demanding to see the LSAT's of the first ever African-American female Supreme Court nominee (which even potting aside the obvious and not subtle racism is stupid for about 10000 different reasons) because he can't possibly believe a black woman would be smart. But hey teaching CRT is still clearly the biggest issue in this country (eye roll)
Keith Law
1:58
I think 90% of the CRT "debate" was astroturfed bullshit designed to rally the right's base, but there's 10% "we don't want to teach kids how bad our history is" so they don't realize how racist that Carlson thing was.
stixx23
1:58
Following up on my Q about the first female player. Any thoughts on a more likely position? Reliever seems the easiest path (don't have to hit usually and could be a specialist - lefty, knuckler, etc.) especially since it would take an exceptional talent to overcome the "horror" of a "girl" replacing a position player on the roster.
Keith Law
1:58
Pitcher. Not sure whether the role matters necessarily and they'd never have to it. Why couldn't a woman develop the arm strength to throw 90-92 and get high spin rates on a breaking ball?
Insert Witty Name Here
1:58
no question I just find this funny: this guy at work agrees with every single principle that Bernie says, but still claims he’s a conservative.
Keith Law
1:58
That is funny.
Nick
1:59
Do you enjoy Brandywine coffee from Wilmington? They have it at my local shop in Detroit, and I find it to be quite delicious..
Keith Law
2:00
They sell it in Detroit? Crazy. We can walk to one of their shops (Brew Ha-ha) and I think as local coffee shops go they're solid. I do prefer the coffee from Re-Animator in Philly, as my nearby options go, though.
Paul
2:00
To respond to the earlier question about leaning right - eliminating tariffs (lower manufacturing costs) and having looser immigration policies (lower labor costs) have, from my understanding, been at least right wing from an economic perspective. (I may be wrong that those are two positions of yours, but I thought I read a previous chat where you were in support of eliminating tariffs.)                                  With today's republican party though - who the f- knows.
Keith Law
2:01
Agreed. I've always advocated for open immigration. Most economists will tell you tariffs are bad. I'd certainly oppose federal or state wage/price controls. I don't agree with the idea of government ownership of industry, which is, you know, what actual socialism is. (Ask anyone who throws that word around as a pejorative to define it. Fun will ensue.)
Mike P
2:01
Knowing how strongly you feel about climate change and fossil fuels' unmistakeable contribution to it, I'm surprised that you are OK with even a short-term nod to that industry on more investment. Don't mean to be rude or antagonistic, just a bit confused.
Keith Law
2:02
I'm a pragmatist. And if we do nothing, and then the GOP takes over again in 2024, the long-term damage to the planet may be irreversible. If passing an energy bill like that now creates some positive change, while also decreasing the changes of a right-wing autocracy coming, so much the better.
Jay's friend
2:03
Does Jay Allen have 30/30 .300/.400 CF potential? Possible top 20 end of year? What could stop him from reaching his ceiling?
Keith Law
2:04
I'll send you to my Reds top 20 for the answer to that. What could stop him = what could stop 95% of HS position player prospects: We have to see how he hits decent pro pitching.
Greg
2:04
If Jeter had played a different position (more adequately than SS I mean), would he have been a surefire Hall of Famer?
Keith Law
2:04
If he'd been an average defender at third base for 20 years? Probably.
2:05
Might actually improve his statistical case, at least.
Insert Witty Name Here
2:05
Any thoughts on the possibility that analytics are the root cause of the current labor strife? I know owners always repressed salaries, but once the really smart people got into the FO, the shift of player salaries for really skewed.  So basically this is all your fault? /s
Keith Law
2:05
I don't buy that argument at all. The owners were always going to find a way to win more while paying players less. Analytics were just another tool. If it wasn't that, it would have been something else.
Clay, Rutherford
2:05
What can MLB do differently to expand the game to Europe and develop more quality players? A handful of their teenagers get signed every year, though most are released before they even graduate from the complex leagues. I know Mike Piazza manages the Italian National Team; more involvement from MLB veterans seems like a good place to start.
Keith Law
2:08
I joked on Twitter a week ago that MLB players who are locked out should go play overseas to stay ready while also growing the game. Imagine if Xander Bogaerts and Didi Gregorius went to play in the Honkbal Hoofdklasse for a month - crowds would swell, it'd be front-page news, and even though everyone would know they were leaving in a few weeks, it would help expose the sport more in that country. (Gregorius was born there, and Bogaerts is a Dutch citizen as an Aruba native.) There are smaller leagues all over the world, some of which only play in the MLB offseason, but many of which play now. Send a few to Italy, a few to Germany, a few to Czechia, a few to China, and so on. It'd be a bit of a goodwill tour. I know the counterarguments - if a player gets hurt, then what happens - but from a top-down perspective, I think it would do so much good for the sport.
2:10
That's all for today. Thank you all again for reading. I'll have my first MLB draft content for 2022 up next week - I hope a top 30 ranking plus some notes on Jones and Johnson, if the weather is more favorable this time around. In the meantime, you can see all of my pro prospect rankings content here, on this handy index page. Stay safe everyone.
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