JotCast | Klawchat 4/13/17

Klawchat 4/13/17

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Keith Law

2:18

I saw him when we covered their game at home vs Boston - he was in my O's top 20, pretty athletic, quick-twitch kid with power and some speed too. I know Buck loves him (he told us pregame, compared him to a pretty great historical player) but he wasn't young for the Sally League last year and needed to make a big jump. Double-A is perfect. I don't think he'll hit .500 all year though.

Tyrone

2:18

What do you make of Amir Garrett's good start to the season? Does his athleticism make up for lack of overpowering stuff?

Keith Law

2:19

I think it's two starts, I think you're underselling the stuff, but I think he's a hell of an athlete who will continue to improve even after he's been in the majors a year or two.

Sean

2:19

First, thank you for all of the work. I can't wait to read your book. Second, I am assuming you have seen Buxton this year. He looks awful at the plate. How do the Twins and Buxton fix this?

Keith Law

2:20

I said on BBTN that I think it's become mental. He's getting killed low and away, and I'm sure the Twins have told him to try to lay off those pitches, but apparently the fear of striking out has overtaken him. If he can't make that adjustment in the majors, he'll have to go back to triple-A to clear his head and work very specifically on that problem. A ton of his swings and misses were in that part of the zone, on all pitch types.5

Logan

2:20

Have you had a chance to see or hear anything about Austin Beck's rise on the draft boards?

Keith Law

2:20

I saw him and included him in my last draft blog post. I have heard him in the top 5 (Padres, Rays) but I don't think he's that kind of prospect. Too much effort in his game.

Phil

2:21

Keith, I've read some good things about Columbia RHP Colin Holderman. He had a great first outing. Any thoughts on him? Is he potentially the next "Warthen surprise"?

Keith Law

2:21

I think he had a great first outing. That's it. He's not a better prospect than he was a week ago, when he was a fringe guy starting a little lower than he should given his age.

Charlie

2:22

Look forward to reading Smart Baseball. Exit Velo getting a lot of recognition on broadcasts this season. If you were to rank its importance as against other hitting metrics, where does it fit?

Keith Law

2:24

It's a different kind of metric - its use is entirely predictive. It doesn't tell us whether the ball put in play was successful at all. But in combination with other batted-ball data it might give us insight on what a hitter is likely to do, or merely capable of doing, going forward.

Important Question

2:24

RE: Giolito. Mainly, his velo has just totally fallen. That's why we should be a bit nervous.

Keith Law

2:24

He was throwing two-seamers at 90-91 his first start. That's about right for him. So, fake news, maybe?

Drew

2:24

Is Hunter Greene a generational talent or a good player who throws really hard.

Keith Law

2:24

He's a lot more than a guy who "throws really hard."

Matt

2:24

What do you think of Matt Adams in left field and MIKE Matheny in general...

Keith Law

2:25

Matt Adams shouldn't be allowed off the infield dirt, for the safety of himself and everyone around him.

Jay

2:25

Jake Junis made his debut last night for KC. Is his upside as a starter, or do you see his future in the pen?

Keith Law

2:25

If he's a starter it's near replacement level.

Jimmy

2:25

Is Reynaldo Lopez still a reliever for you or has his SSS this year (including spring training) given him more of a chance to stick as a starter?

Keith Law

2:26

Yes, it's a small sample, but he's walked nearly a man an inning so far. How would that change my opinion?

Dave H

2:26

Thoughts on the Mariners moving Joe Decarlo to catcher?

Keith Law

2:26

Irrelevant because he can't hit. He had a slow bat the day he was drafted.

Scott

2:26

Thoughts on Nicky Delmonico? Reports of scouts raving about his swing this spring. Anything there?

Keith Law

2:26

He's always had a good-looking swing; he has had trouble staying healthy, more than anything else.

Jay

2:26

Does Sandy Alcantara make jump to StL this summer?

Keith Law

2:26

Possible but I think very aggressive.

Valentine Michael Smith

2:26

It looks like Joey Gallo will be the Rangers' third baseman for at least the next month or so due to Beltre's calf injury. Gallo is slashing .192/.323/.500 so far -- is that around the range you think would be reasonable to expect him to put up going forward while Beltre is gone? And if he does, when Beltre returns, do you send him back to AAA, put him in LF, or put him at 1B?

Keith Law

2:27

I think he can hit more than that, of course. If he were hitting .240/.323/.500, would anyone blink? Is it just that the very first digit is a 1 that makes it bother us? It bothers me, even though I know all those walks and homers give him a lot of value.

Another Tim

2:27

Bryan Price has been mixing in a lot of multi-inning relief appearances, which has me excited. For a guy like Raisel Iglesias, what is the max number of innings he can throw with this usage pattern?

Keith Law

2:28

I think it depends on days off between outings. Iglesias is supposed to be unable to handle a starter's workload, and if that's true, then two innings one day should mean at least a full day of rest before he pitches again. I don't think 100 innings is out of the question for a pitcher used in a judicious fashion that gives him days off.

Scott

2:28

Have you read the Handmaid's Tale? Are you interested in the new TV series?

Keith Law

2:28

Just read it a year ago. It's superb. Not sure I can handle watching it - it's bad enough watching Texas and Arkansas and Iowa strip away women's rights in reality.

OklahomaBrave

2:29

*I know it's early but Demeritte cut his k% in the AFL and the trend seems to be contuing. Fair to be cautiously optimistic?

Keith Law

2:30

No, it's really not. 5 K in 26 PA is absolutely within the range of normal variation for a guy who might have a 'true' K rate of 30%. You need a much larger sample to draw any conclusions at all that he's different from last year (33% K rate).

Chris

2:30

Hi Keith, I'm the one who tweeted at you about Kap. Isn't this pretty much the single worst thing that could happen wrt the Yanks' youth movement? They have far fewer top end pitching prospects than positon players, and he seemed like the only one who might end up a true #1. Plus generally buying pitching is much more pricey than position players.

Keith Law

2:31

I'm not happy to see it, but guys do come back from TJ just fine. Buehler came back with velocity he had never shown before, since it turned out he'd been pitching hurt for some time. if Kap is one of the 10% or so who just don't recover, that's awful for everyone, but I still think he's going to end up a very good big league starter.

Noah

2:31

Do you think any college pitchers in this draft have ace potential?

Keith Law

2:31

Probably not. Seeing Faedo tonight and Wright tomorrow here in Nashville, but neither has had a great spring so far.

Joe

2:31

What surprised you most when it came to writing the book? What was hardest?

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