JotCast | Klawchat 4/19/18

Klawchat 4/19/18

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Bored Lawyer, Esq.

1:19

At what point does a slow/bad start get concerning? If Lutz and Jhailyn Ortiz (for example) are still struggling to make contact in 25 games, is concern valid? 50 games?

Keith Law

1:20

Both play at 19 this year; Ortiz won't turn 20 until November. So I'd say no number of games will concern me with those two. And it is fucking FREEZING in the northeast and upper midwest.

Andrew

1:21

Buddy Reed is in fuego. Which of these three prospects ends up contributing the most for the Padres? Buddy Reed, Franchy Cordero, or Michael Gettys?

Keith Law

1:21

Buddy Reed is a 23-year-old in high-A in a great hitters' environment. Cordero is the only one of those three I'd call a prospect.

Frank

1:21

What's STL going to do with all the outfield surplus? Feels like Bader and Oneil deserve an everyday job somewhere. What do you think?

Keith Law

1:22

There has to be a trade at some point. They're going to have a need - rotation, I'd guess - and they have the parts to go get pretty much anyone.

Nate (in Seattle)

1:22

Klaw, thanks for the mlb draft primer. Wondering what you take on Corey Ray’s start. Is it SSS or living up to previous promise?

Keith Law

1:24

I know he's gone back to a small stride/tap to get his weight transferred again, so that's a big positive; I thought that was the #1 difference from college when I saw him last year. Curiosity in his stats: In the first four games of the season, all vs montgomery, he punched out 10 times and went 4 for 18. Since then in ten games, he's punched out just 5 times, and is hitting .410/.425/.667.

Rob

1:24

Kohl Stewart has put up K numbers in his first two starts that he hasn't shown in pro ball yet. Being left available for the Rule 5 and being passed over by everyone light a fire, or some sort of adjustment?

Keith Law

1:24

Or he faced an atrocious Birmingham lineup and struck out 9 guys in 5 innings because they're terrible.

1:25

I mean, here's the box score: http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?t=g_box&did=milb&gid=2018_04_... Courtney Hawkins and Keon Barnum each had the golden sombrero.

Dante

1:25

I've heard Nick Madrigal is being considered by the Phillies. Does he remind you at all of Scott Kingery based on his tools? Any word on his makeup?

Keith Law

1:26

Madrigal is in the mix for a bunch of teams up top - I don't think he'd get past the A's - and the Phillies are sort of on everyone except Swaggerty (can't do yet another CF, right?). Kingery is substantially stronger than Madrigal.

Chris

1:26

Would cutting Reyes and bringing up Cecchini or Guillorme be worse for their individual development? Or is there not much left to prove for those guys?

Keith Law

1:27

Cutting Reyes makes the team better AND opens a spot for someone younger. Guillorme would also give them an elite defender at short for when Rosario doesn't play.

Kevin

1:27

Thanks for the rankings, Keith. Curious if you heard what the White Sox are thinking at 4? Best player, arm, bat? What would you do if you were in their position with the stable of young arms and outfielders they already have in the minors?

Keith Law

1:28

Other than a few random connections - A's with Bart, Reds with Singer, Mariners with Xavier Edwards - there isn't much out there because no one really knows what teams up top, including Detroit, are doing, and because players/advisers mostly haven't put bonus expectations out there. I don't believe the White Sox would take a prep arm at 4, though. My answer for what I would do for every team is best player available, always and forever, amen.

Bucs666

1:28

Mr. Law, how signable is Kumar Rocker. I know that he is committed to Vanderbilt, but I was hoping that the Pirates would have a shot at him. Thank you.

Keith Law

1:28

I believe he is signable where he's going to be drafted.

Craig

1:29

Scouting question. Brent Suter has shown that he is at least a mediocre MLB pitcher and possibly more. He doesn't throw hard and none of his pitches are amazing, he just mixes and matches pretty effectively. He was a college senior draftee and I am pretty sure that guys like him are a dime/dozen and most top out around AA. When scouting a guy like him in college, is there anything you can look for to see a future major leaguer or is it just pretty much luck?

Keith Law

1:31

I don't think it's all luck, but he's a lefty throwing in the mid 80s with some deception and good control. Those guys are a dime a dozen, because they tend not to pitch very well in the majors (and I don't think Suter is anything more than an up-and-down guy).

Jed

1:31

Has the quality of this year's draft diminished in your mind after seeing most of the top guys fail to meet what was expected of them coming into the spring?

Keith Law

1:31

I think it is as deep as I thought in February, but the top ten is worse than I thought it would be.

Andy

1:31

I watched the Red Sox- Yankees fight. The commisioner should know that fighting on the field is a HUGE delay. If you want to speed up the game, suspend anyone who charges the mound 25 games. Managers who argue calls after replay? 10 game suspension. Those are pace of play things that I can get behind.

Keith Law

1:32

And the guys running in from the bullpen like the Kool-Aid guy? Come on. I agree - baseball fights are stupid, and when one happens at a game where I'm in the stands, that's generally when I pull a book out of my bag, because I'll probably get a chapter or so in before they're done.

Garrett

1:33

Keith you mentioned in a write up at the end of Spring Training that Austin Riley might have a grade higher of power than you previously thought. Have you seen/heard anything else to change your opinion on his other tools? I know you have had questions about his bat speed in the past

Keith Law

1:34

Still do. I doubt the .500 BABIP is going to last. He has really done a great job with his body, though - if he'd looked like this in high school, he probably would have slipped into the first round as a two-way guy who showed more athleticism. (Not relevant now, but I wonder if he would have been a better prospect on the mound too with this physique.) He deserves a lot of credit for transforming his body like he has.

Joe

1:34

Keith, I saw the Tampa Yankees in Fort Myers last week. Two guys caught my eye, Jonathan Loaisiga and Isiah Gilliam. You have written about Loaisia before, but what kind of prospect is Gilliam?

Keith Law

1:34

Tools guy who never hit, not really even in HS. 36% K rate so far this year.

Joe

1:34

Keith, could Nick Decker out of New Jersey be a day one pick?

Keith Law

1:34

I expect that he will.

Marc

1:35

Is Kopech ready for the show or do they need to give him a couple more months to refine command?

Keith Law

1:35

I may have answered this two weeks ago - I think his stuff is ready, and he'll miss a lot of bats, but walk more guys than you'd like, and that's part of his development.

Kevin

1:35

How far from the big leagues is Casey Mize?

Keith Law

1:35

If healthy, and we assume he doesn't pitch at all this summer, I'd say by the All-Star Break next year.

Scott

1:36

Mac Williamson changed his swing with the help of Justin Turner's swing coach. He hit well in spring training and is on fire in AAA so far. Do you think he can be a solid regular in the majors?

Keith Law

1:36

I think a fringe regular - bat speed has never been very good, always a power over hit type, with some athleticism and the ability to play that difficult RF in San Francisco.

Lilith

1:36

Are teams drafting in the top 5 going to be more cautious about drafting Madrigal because of his injury?

Keith Law

1:36

Doesn't sound like it. He may be moving up relative to other college bats because so many of them are underperforming while he's out.

Matt

1:37

How excited should Phillies fans be about the foursome of Sixto/JoJo/Ranger/Adonis? Because the names alone are enough to make me dizzy.

Connecting…

Bill G

2:36

Hi Keith. You passed along the article in the Athletic regarding Manfred's position on minor league pay. For those of us who do not subscribe to the Athletic, can you give us a synopsis of his position? I get the economics, I do not get the morality of the position.

Charley

2:42

If the entire MLB were forced to play out a Lord of the Flies situation (yes, I know, many flies), who would end up being Ralph? Piggy?

Tony

2:51

Hey Keith,

Brian J

2:53

Big 2, or SSS?

JeremyK

2:58

Hey Keith, Are there any real MLB prospects at Indiana U? Proud of my alma mater developing a solid baseball program.

Jason

2:59

I know it is early but has there been any player in the minors or majors early on that has really impressed you? Has anyone mentioned to you about anyone that has really stood out?

Fuzzy Dunlop

3:37

Who is the most likable player in the league right now and why is it Ozzie Albies?

Ricardo

3:43

Can Girardi help this young Reds team?

Ricardo

3:44

Any thoughts on teams keeping players in the minors to limit service time? Nick Senzel could help this struggling Reds team right?

Jim

3:44

Thanks for the draft rankings. If my count is correct 2 of the top 4 high school bats are from the Midwest. How rare is that and does it represent a weak draft class for prep bats?

4:01

Have you heard of Berrios doing anything differently this year?

Dave

4:05

Hi Keith,

4:06

With pace of play in mind, what's the chances that MLB ends up restricting the number of bullpen guys a team can have active? Really low? Any more likely that MLB makes rule on number of pitching changes allowed?

Andrew

4:11

Thoughts on Reggie Lawson's hot start in the CAL? What kind of ceiling does he have if everything clicks? I remember he was highly regarded in HS before getting hurt.

Andrew

4:12

I guess Luis Urias is human? I never thought I would see the day where he's hitting below .300 at any level

Brian

4:13

Keith, while I realize he has consistently been ranked in numerous top 100 lists, does Leody Taveras project to be an impact player or just a regular guy?

Bored Lawyer, Esq.

4:13

Was talking about this with a scout friend: is it possible to command super plus stuff (98-101 FB, high 80s offspeed)? Who would you say has elite command of top end stuff? Related question: is there a point at which control is enough and command doesn’t matter (Alroldis, Thor)?

Brian

4:13

Keith,

Brian

4:14

Keith, I am headed to Flagstaff and Sedona next week. Any restaurant recommendations?

Nelson

4:17

Do you bone, or do you debone a chicken/fish etc.

Rob

4:19

Has Berrios shown you anything different in his starts this year that backs up his relative dominance early on?

Rob

4:21

Safe to say you are on the Dozier side of buntgate?

Chris

4:23

How would you proceed with Mets rotation when Vargas is deemed ready? I'd take two of Matz, Harvey or Wheeler and have them swing start (4-5 IP) every fifth day. None of the three are ever able to keep pitch counts down so swing em!

Chris

4:26

I'm firmly in the play Nido every day camp. Nice glove, miiiiight hit a little, but why not give the guy a chance to win the job? Lobaton is a known backup.

Dana

4:27

I don't know if you heard, but Giancarlo Stanton is bad now, actually.

Claude Robichaux

4:29

Who is Ezequiel Duran and should I even care?

Bucs666

4:32

Mr. Law, how signable is Kumar Rocker? With

JIMBO

4:34

Keith - thanks for doing these chats. A question that has occurred to me every off season that I would like your take on: Don't high profile agents have (potential) conflicts of interest when they are representing different players? For instance, teams may only need one starting pitcher - or, regardless of positional need, has limited budgets. I understand players have a right to their own choice of representation - but how does the industry avoid such conflicts? Do they? Or am I overstating the (non) problem?

Chris

4:38

Are the Mets smoke and mirrors? Agreed (before you even say anything), they are not 76% winning percentage good but are they first place in the NL East good?

Chris

4:44

Hi Keith, Sam Hentges in CLE system looks to be having a bounceback year in HiA. Is he a potential breakout guy if he stays healthy?

Andy

4:52

A far more interesting (and less brain hurty) question, Betts or Harper? While Harper undoubtedly has higher upside, Betts is a better fielder and seems like he can stay healthy better.

Archie

4:52

Do you think Mac Williamson's remade swing makes him a viable big leaguer? If so, what do the Giants have to lose by giving him the at bats they are throwing away on Pence?

Tyler Y.

4:54

Any reason to suspect Matt Chapman's good start (lower K rate, higher walk rate) is the result of an adjustment/something sustainable? Or just SSS?

Scott

4:56

Why in the world would Assad use chemical weapons when he's so close to victory? Why would he give his enemies the perfect excuse to go in and drop bombs? Or are we supposed to believe he's just a "butcher" who doesn't operate logically and truly enjoys mass murder? It blows my mind people can believe such obvious regime change propaganda.

Marti

4:57

Why did Leonard Pozner drop his SLAPP suit against former State Trooper, Vice Principal, and School Safety Expert Wolfgang Halbig? This was his chance to expose this crazy conspiracy theorist! I know you'll probably go with an easy cop out about Pozner having to relive a tragedy and whatnot, but why even file the suit then? Seems rather fishy...

Mike F

4:58

Thoughts on Chris Stratton? SSS or a real chance to break out? Thanks for the chats and columns!

Tina

4:59

Hey Keith. Who've been some of the friendliest MLB players you've interacted with over the years? Least friendly?

Brett

4:59

Eloy Jimenez seems to have minor injuries at a decent clip. So far this year, he has had knee and pectoral issues. Last year, he had shoulder issues. At what point do you start worrying about durability with some players?

Jones

4:59

God, Matheny is the worst. I know he hasn't had a head coaching position since the Penn League, but what do I have to do to get Oquendo in there?

Tyler Y.

5:00

Any chance Jed Lowrie will have any value at the trade deadline or before? Seems like the A's have been trying to trade him for over a year.

Shuck Bowalter

5:01

ETA on a Gleyber promotion?

Brad

5:02

Apparently, Mookie Betts is the best player in baseball.

A big dumb idiot

5:02

While not likely it's certainly possible that Vlad and Bo are the top 2 prospects in baseball going into next season. Is there any precedence for one team having the top 2?

Jeremy

5:02

Jose Suarez has 27 K in 12 IP, 9 of those in his 3.2 IP debut at Double-A last night. Can he overcome his frame and turn into something useful?

5:02

Chris Stratton looked alright last night before Bochy left him in two batters too many. Can he be a solid rotation piece going forward?

Guest

5:02

If you were the Mets, would you trade for Realmuto this season. And if yes who would you give up

Lilith

5:03

What teams have been focusing more on Kelenic than others?

Jonathan

5:03

What's the value of Acuna being at AAA for the next few weeks to "small sample size" get hot? Wouldn't those at bats be just as valuable or more against MLB pitching?

Scott

5:03

Who is a better draft prospect: Bohm this year or Senzel when he was drafted?

Scott P.

5:03

Is it wrong to say Khalil Lee is 80% of Estevan Florial?

Kevin

5:03

What '80' tools are available in this year's draft?

Marissa

5:03

Who would you trade for Realmuto (if you would) if you were the Mets?

Greg

5:03

Better prospect in the Nationals system: Soto or Robles?

Andy

5:03

Joey Votto is tied with Eugenio Suarez for walks and has as many extra base hits as Luis Castillo. The 13 (?!) pitchers currently on the roster have a 4.34 ERA. It's mid April. What exactly were the Reds looking for? They weren't competing for the playoffs anyway.

John

5:03

Is Tyler O'Neill a regular in the longrun or just a 4th OF with power?

Jake

5:03

Thoughts on Shane Bieber?

Trudy

5:03

Do you think Mac williamson has the potential to be a 3 win player? His stints in the bigs have been underwhelming but he allegedly changed his swing and is now crushing AAA.

Jay

5:03

Thoughts on the Braves hot start? Are they a sustainable .500 team?

Terminator

5:03

In a recent Fangraphs article, a writer claimed that Jen Ramos had done research that shows that women should be playing professional baseball. They have yet to release that research but do you think it's possible that her research could be true? Thanks Keith.

Dave

5:03

How do you evaluate Jarred Kelenic for this years draft? Just go on what you saw from mostly last summer?

Shuck Bowalter

5:04

Do you think it's stupid that the Rays have their top talent in the upper minors, yet continue to play guys like Rob Refsnyder and Brandon Snyder?

Kwame

5:04

Mets just brought up Gerson Bautista, is he more than just a hard thrower?

Tim

5:04

The usual small sample size applies, but anything to be excited about with Daulton Varsho?

Brad

5:04

Who has the higher ceiling in the Brewers farm: Peralta or Burnes?

Derek

5:04

Who is the best historical comp for Heyward's regression? It's hard to find a decline like this in prime years with no known injury.

Joey

5:04

Keith can nimmo be a future all star? Seems to be at least average in every category. Great eye, speed, obp ... Him and conforto should be staple for mets going forward right ?

5:04

How do you feel about Ethan Hankins after this spring?

Mike (CT)

5:04

Admitted Mets homer here so trying to see the type of package to get Realmuto. Would Alonso, Nimmo and Kay be enough?

Scott

5:04

Stratton has been pretty good so far. Do you see him as a #3 starter going forward, or more of a back of the rotation type?

Jacob

5:05

Outside of Madrigal and Bohm, what infielder in the draft has the highest offensive floor and highest offensive ceiling?

Cash

5:05

What #s do you see for Miguel Andujar this year? Cheers

joe

5:05

Does bat size and dimensions matter at all when evaluating a player? For example, would a player who is using an undersized bat seem to have better bat speed? Could a bat that is too heavy lead to a longer swing? Bat dimensions don't seem to be covered much so maybe it doesn't really matter?

Mike

5:05

Which Cubs prospect or prospect(s) are you most excited to see this year? (Either in person or how they perform from a far).

Adam

5:05

AJ Preller’s done a great job of rebuilding the Padres farm system, but has he been competent enough constructing his major league rosters during the last few years for Padres fans to have faith in his leadership next time the team has a chance to be successful?

Jesse

5:05

Is the mets best plan to hold tight for plawecki to return? Give up a big haul for realmuto get a good to fringe catcher?

Soxtober2020

5:05

Winston-Salem seems to have a pretty stacked outfield, and they don't even have Robert yet. How many of these guys do you think turn into solid or better mlb players?

Adam

5:05

At what point is it decided that a player is a platoon-only fit? Should a guy like Hunter Renfroe, who is 26, still be given time to figure things out or is this pretty much who he is?

Chase

5:06

Hey Keith, given the Yankees injuries in the infield to Brandon Drury and general ineffectiveness of Tyler Wade and Miguel Andujar, how soon is until you think that we see Glyber Torres in New York?

Dave

5:06

Reds fired Price today, and have said they will search for non-interim replacement later this year. Girardi, Larkin, Farrell all rumored on short list. With Reds hoping to contend with youth next year, which of those three fits best?

Pete

5:06

Do you think Tyler Beede's stuff could play up in relief? I still want to believe in him, but that control is maddening.

Adam

5:06

Is Austin Hedges so valuable defensively that he can remain a starter even if the bat never comes around?

David

5:06

If the Mets were willing to eat most of Wilson Ramos contract, could they acquire him for a Gavin Cecchini-level prospect?

Justin

5:06

Who should the Pirates target at #10?

Adam

5:06

How do teams run by Alex Anthopolis draft compared to what the Braves have done before his arrival? Should we expect to see a philosophical change between the two?

Josh

5:06

Ceiling on Peter Alsonso?

Slick Rick Hahn

5:06

IF the Sox really wanted to get Alek Thomas to them in round 2 (obvious connection there) and decided to go underslot at 4, any idea on a target? Burger was a bit underslot last year but would imagine it would need to be more severe this time around. Thanks!

Chris

5:06

Im not concerned on Amed Rosario, but more curious on your thoughts on what he needs to work on outside of plate discipline?

Jeb

5:06

What are some names that Pirate fans should be ecstatic with at #10 if they are picked?

Tim

5:06

Who are a couple of the currently in Ext Spring players that you are most looking forward to in Short Season ball?

Margot

5:06

Is Jon Lester a HOFer for you?

Adam

5:07

What is the most interesting trade idea you’ve heard about that fell through at the last minute?

5:07

Is this Gerrit Cole sustainable for an entire season?

Steve

5:07

For lottery ticket guys like Jorge Ona, what would a good season look like for him?

Vin

5:07

Do you buy the swing changes that Mac Williamson has made?

Kevin

5:07

What is Mitch Keller's upside? Could he be another Jameson Taillon?

Adam

5:07

Now that Chief Wahoo is gone, can we shift our attention back to the Braves and start asking questions about the appropriateness of the Padres nickname as well?

Jason

5:07

The Tigers are . . . fun to watch?

Dr. Bob

5:07

Cinci firing Price reminds me of a line from Ball Four. Bouton was ruminating on who should take the fall for the woeful Pilots. He concluded, "Can the manager fire the general manager? No."

Chase

5:07

Keith, just finished your book and loved it, especially the section on the Baseball Hall of Fame. Who do you think is the most deserving player that will get shut out of Cooperstown in the coming years?

Chris

5:07

On a scale of 'Matt Adams in LF' to 'raging tire pyre', how bad is the Braves' idea to sign Bautista to play 3B?

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