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Klawchat 4/22/21
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Keith Law
1:04
I've got the answer. Open the envelope.
Mac
1:04
Will Jackson Jobe get top 5 consideration?
Keith Law
1:05
No. The last two drafts didn't include a HS pitcher in the top 15 picks. Jobe shouldn't be a top 5 pick on his own merits, or with what might be an industry trend away from HS pitchers up top.
Larry
1:05
Do you think Henry Davis’ receiving will improve? He has a problem with the catching part of catching.
Keith Law
1:05
That's wrong. He receives well, throws plus, could use some help with blocking. I'm not sure where you got that information but it's bad.
addoeh
1:05
It might be confirmation bias on my part, but it seems there are more HS seniors from cold weather states projected to go in the first couple of rounds the last few years or so, but especially this year.  Is this accurate?
Keith Law
1:06
It seems accurate this year, but I don't see a trend. California and Texas are just having their worst HS years in memory, and that's creating opportunity (or need) for cold-weather kids to fill the gap.
Bill G
1:06
Thanks as always for doing these chats.  How would you use Ohtani?  Starter/DH, Starter only, DH only, DH/Closer?  Thanks!
Keith Law
1:07
Just pick one. He's a hitter or a pitcher. I think the Angels are losing some value by trying to have him do both.
AJ
1:09
Jazz is sure looking like the star you've said he would be. What is his ceiling? And do you think he'll get that K rate down, or is 25-30% just who he is?
Keith Law
1:10
I could see him settling into the 23-25% range, but between the way the game is now and the way he swings, I doubt he ever has a year where he's better than the league median in K%. I'm glad to see his at bats overall are better, though.
Fuzzy Dunlop
1:10
Around what round projection do you start seeing 6-8 organizations area scouts at that particular player's game/starts?  Our local HS Friday starter has probably seen that many at every one of his starts, but I can't see him being more than a 15th-20th round guy. I know its obviously not an exact formula, but I always wondered.
Keith Law
1:11
That doesn't add up. If he's a HS pitcher on Fridays - the night most colleges throw their best guys - he wouldn't have six area scouts there unless he's a first-rounder. You're seeing part-timers or they're not scouts at all.
RickG
1:11
Hey Keith. Have you considered returning to Top Chef recaps, or would you ever? This season has been very interesting. I re-watched some seasons during the Pandemic and whenever possible re-read your takes - I've learned much more about cooking then I knew when the shows first aired and found your perspective even better the 2nd time around.
Keith Law
1:11
I appreciate that very much, but those took around 3 hours (viewing + writing) to do, and I just don't have that kind of time any more.
Tom
1:13
Pavin Smith seeing some regular playing time. With the adjustment to his launch angle over the past year, what do you see his offensive output looking like?
Keith Law
1:13
He's still getting on top of the ball a little too much, but I see a high-OBP 20-homer guy.
Guest
1:14
A few weeks (months?) ago you appeared on an Orioles podcast mentioned that one thing were concerned about for Kjerstad was his strikeout rate. What is more concerning about his strikeouts than, say, George Springer's, who is someone you were higher on than consensus when he was coming out of college?
Keith Law
1:16
Kjerstad struck out way more often with far fewer walks. Springer had plate discipline, but didn't bring a two-strike approach (other than "swing hard"). Kjerstad doesn't have that.
J
1:16
Do you know where Pedro Leon is headed once the minor league seasons start? Or is he going to be in limbo for a while? Also - more impossible question - what can/should expectations be for him?
Keith Law
1:17
I doubt we'll see many assignments till next week. Minor league season starts in 12 days, though!
davealden53
1:17
From 2009 to 2019, two friends and I took annual minor league trips of a week or more to different regions.  2020 was lost and 2021 isn't looking a lot better.  Instead, we're considering the Arizona Fall League for the first week of November.  What have you heard about the AFL plans for this year?  Will the season extend into November?  And will fans be allowed to attend games?
Keith Law
1:17
I haven't heard anything yet and I'm concerned MLB will just decide to axe the league to save another $23.
TomBruno23
1:18
For years the Vitae Foundation, a pro-life organization based in Jefferson City, MO, has been a sponsor of St. Louis Cardinals baseball on KMOX. This season they bring us the starting lineups each and every game. How upset should I be about this? I honestly do not know. https://vitaefoundation.org/
Keith Law
1:18
I wouldn't give my money to the team in that situation, but my guess is that they're playing to their base.
Tom
1:21
Joc Pederson off to a slow start. Sure, SSS, but he's K'ing a lot even for him. Think he can be a solid offensive contributor?
Keith Law
1:21
I do, but I'm concerned that he's whiffing so much against RHP. He's never really hit lefties and expecting him to is foolhardy.
Sedona
1:22
Is Aaron Ashby the 3rd best SP in the entire org?
Keith Law
1:22
No - I'm not completely sold that he's a starter.
Michael
1:22
Hi Keith. Giants fan here - interested to see what you think of farhans strategy the past two plus seasons?  I know we are better than we were when he got here and appreciate that we didn’t “tank”, but do you feel we are actually closer to competing for a championship now than two years ago?  Thanks!
Keith Law
1:23
Yes, I like the overall direction, and especially the way they're trying out veterans who might benefit from a change of scenery and approach, players who'd be great trade pieces in July if the Giants are out of it. The worst thing that could happen would be some fake contention where they keep all of those guys instead.
Moe Mentum
1:23
It's still early (SSS) but what should the Phillies do about their glaring hole in center field? I know you won't recommend Odubel Herrera, but...
Keith Law
1:24
I'd probably play Quinn out there, of the options on the roster. They can fire Herrera into the sun for all I care. Moniak isn't the answer, and while I wish the best for Haseley, they have to move on. I don't think they have anyone close enough in the system to be better than a replacement-level Quinn.
Aaron in Indy
1:25
Glad to see Yankee fans handling their early season struggles with the patience and level headedness that we could only come to expect.

But seriously, does Boone make it thru the year if they don't drastically improve.  And I think they will start hitting more especially when Volt comes back.  But do they have enough pitching (including minor league) to make a run at the division???
Keith Law
1:26
It's not even 10% of the season, though. Joe Sheehan wrote somewhere the other day that every team has a 5-10 stretch at some point, even the best teams. The overreaction to the small sample is mind-boggling, even if you buy into the stereotype of the Yankee fan (I think Yankee fans are no different than fans of other teams, but we think they're louder because there are so many more of them).
Sedona
1:27
Has Kopech shown anything differently so far to change your outlook on him?
Keith Law
1:27
No, this is what I thought he'd do in a relief role - now we'll see how it goes as he stretches out, if his command holds (it really turned a corner in the last two months he spent in the minors) and he stays healthy.
Jason
1:27
Are reverse splits a real thing for relievers?  Chris Martin was substantially better against lefties in 2019 (and better in 2020, though his numbers were really good against both), but I'm curious as to whether that can be sustinable
Keith Law
1:28
They can be real, but you'd probably need about three years' worth of innings to be sure of it. It would help if you could see it in the arsenal - a pitcher with a great changeup or split, but not much of a breaking ball, would likely have a reverse split.
John
1:28
An mlb.com mock draft published yesterday showed Rocker falling to the Red Sox at 4.  What do you see as the chances of that happening?
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