JotCast | Klawchat 4/24/25

Klawchat 4/24/25

Prev Page View Full Chat Next Page

Keith Law

2:46

I would suggest you check out my weekly link roundups on Saturdays.

Matt

2:46

Obviously the sample is tiny, but Alfredo Duno has thus far drastically cut down his K% and swstr%. If that guy can really keep his K% under 20%, how high is the ceiling there?

Keith Law

2:47

I think the bat might be elite. Just do not see that large body sticking at catcher.

Jay

2:47

Will the ability to frame/receive diminish with an ABS challenge system? Wouldn't that help guys like Ramirez stick behind the plate or is the ability to control a run game with success rates near 90% still too much a factor?

Keith Law

2:47

Framing will diminish and thank god, what a stupid skill that is. Receiving isn't about stealing strikes, though. That's different.

Guest

2:47

If you were the president and say, hypothetically speaking, you were in the pocket of a foreign adversary, would you be doing anything differently than the current administration is doing?

Keith Law

2:47

Hypothetically, no, this hypothetically looks a lot like the hypothetical situation you described.

Brandon Hyde

2:47

What went wrong for the Orioles, and can they fix it this season?

Keith Law

2:48

Pitching. They needed to replace or re-sign Burnes, and they didn't. Now they have a logjam of hitters, some of whom are losing trade value, and not enough starters. Joe Sheehan wrote in his newsletter today that it's the worst rotation in baseball by performance so far. SSS, yes, but also, they didn't do anything to address it this winter.

2:49

Is Shane Smith a mirage or is it sustainable?

Keith Law

2:49

I believe he's a big-league starter. Might have a mediocre year this year given the jump, but I think he'll end up a good #5 or even a #4 in time.

Taker55

2:49

Do you keep playing Cagliaone at 1st base or do you see what he looks in the outfield?

Keith Law

2:49

Outfield.

Andy

2:49

It's NFL draft week and as an aside in one of the draft previews, there a mention that teams monitor the mock drafts. Not necessarily for who they are taking, but for the general level where people are being valued. Does that line up with how baseball people think of mock drafts?

Keith Law

2:49

Yes.

2:49

I get we can't trust SSS in the majors/minors, but does that explain in part why drafting is such a crap shoot since we are mostly judging off of recent performances?

Keith Law

2:50

We're not judging that much off recent performances, though. It's recent looks, but there's a lot of consideration to whether a spring performance might be skewed by randomness or bad luck - that's where Trackman data can really help teams.

Chaim Bloom

2:50

Should I buy on Victor Scott II?

Matthew Liberatore looks much better this year. Think he's finally reach some of the potential or SSS?

Keith Law

2:51

I'm all in on Scott. If Liberatore is going to keep a walk rate of 2% all year, yes, great, but you can guess whether I believe that.

Andy

2:51

How does it feel that you went to a "Anti-Semitic, Far Left institution," like *checks notes* Harvard?

Keith Law

2:52

I'm so glad Harvard finally decided to fight back. I do not often say I'm proud of my alma mater for anything, but I am right now. "Far left" is fucking hilarious, btw. Wasn't true when I was there and I don't believe for a second it's true now.

Staunton Va

2:52

You went to The Shack in Staunton! It did get big media coverage.

Keith Law

2:52

that's it!

2:52

How did Mize get his groove back?

Keith Law

2:54

More splitters (best pitch in college), improved slider and more of it, cut back on the 4-seam, so he's giving up a lot less hard contact. This I think is sustainable because it all makes sense together - he's reduced his use of the pitch that got hit the hardest, he's amped up the use of his best swing-and-miss pitch, and he improved a third pitch that I actually liked in college but that didn't play that way in the majors.

The story all fits together.

Joe Nathan

2:55

James Tibbs and Cam Smith went 13 & 14th in the draft last year, both played together at Florida State as well. Not even a year later Smith is in the majors, and Tibbs is in high A. On the surface, Tibbs had better numbers than Smith in college last year, so how did we arrive here today? Is there something that the Cubs and/or Astros saw that made Smith the type of player that could be pushed, or is there some other explanation that you are aware of? To me it's super fun and interesting, and Smith also moved from 3B to RF and looks like he belongs (and maybe will see time in CF now?!?).

Keith Law

2:55

It's a great question - Tibbs could probably be in AA, for what that's worth, but your point still holds. I don't think Tibbs is ready for the majors. I didn't think Smith was either, though!

Thatssotaguchi

2:55

Moved family to Italy two years ago under the assumption (gestures vaguely) all of this would be happening. MAGA in-laws are visiting for two weeks in May. How do I not kill them?

Keith Law

2:55

Wine?

Colter Bean Fan

2:55

Is there a dish you've made that sticks out in your mind b/c it seemed a bit of a pain in the arse to make but incredibly good/satisfying upon tasting? Mine would be red beans and rice (soaking the beans 24 hours and then cooking for hours while smashing the means to promote creaminess.. all well worth it)

Keith Law

2:56

Tiramisu. Made it once from scratch. Biggest mess I've ever made in the kitchen. But it was delicious.

Joe Nathan

2:56

No question, just wanted to say thanks for the Shades of Gray recommendation, loved it & Red Side Story. Hopefully it won't take nearly as long for another sequel!

Keith Law

2:56

Pretty sure Fforde said he's working on the third book already.

2:57

His stuff is almost all great, btw. The Constant Rabbit is a one-off that's funny and a pretty obvious satire; Early Riser is more dramatic than most of his works, still really good; and the first quartet of Thursday Next novels are all awesome.

Frank

2:57

What do the Pirates do with Henry Davis? Seems like he needs extended time in the big leagues to show if he can do it because the bouncing back and forth between AAA where he has had success and the Majors where he has not is not working.

Keith Law

2:57

He needs to be in the majors, in the lineup every day. Catch some, DH some, fine, but never the outfield.

Paul

2:57

Any concerts coming up?

Keith Law

2:58

TBD - just need to get through draft travel.

Connecting…