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Klawchat 4/26/18
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Keith Law
1:14
Always loved the swing, wrist injuries killed him, so I'm happy to see this production ... but you can't strike out 1/3 of the time and produce like this over the long haul. Something has to give either way.
Josue
1:15
You linked to an article that claimed a white supremacist was running for School Board in North Dakota, but the article failed to provide a shred of evidence. I acknowledge he could actually be a real white supremacist, but why didn't you link to a better article, if so? It essentially just interviews a few people who say they "heard" he is one and another person says he's on the SPLC's website as a white supremacist. With all the blunders of the SPLC, such as labeling muslim activist Maajid Nawaz an Islamophobe, or Ayaan Hirsi Ali an "anti-muslim extremist", why would any logical person take the word of this organization? Who needs evidence when anyone with a different opinion is a white supremacist though, right?
Keith Law
1:16
The evidence is that he ran a neo-Nazi party, helped run Stormfront for nearly a decade and was once the assistant to David Duke. You're also making a specious claim about the SPLC - if they're wrong on one or two subjective assessments, you want to throw out all their assessments? That says more about you than about the SPLC.
I guess we know he has your vote, though!
Kay
1:16
Justin Dunn has had a much better start to this season - still profile as a potential top end starter?
Keith Law
1:17
Yes.
Darren
1:17
Hello Keith,
I have been a fan of Ahmed Rosario and any discussion recently has people I chat with suggesting he is a better baseball player than fantasy without an impressive offensive upside. Little strike zone discipline or bad/aggressive approach, average hit tool. I know he is young for a lot of power to come, but what do you see his offensive upside being? What would be a reasonable expectation? Thanks for everything.
Keith Law
1:17
I think more than an average hit tool. He's still young and has the same plus bat speed and physical projection he's always had.
AJ
1:17
Why aren't more teams willing to "buy" prospects, like Atlanta did taking Arroyo's contract in order to get Toussaint?  It seems that several rebuilding teams (ChiSox, Phillies) had the payroll room to absorb a bad contract in order to further bolster their farm systems.  Thanks.
Keith Law
1:19
I think teams do this in larger transactions - moving money, taking a bad contract for a good one, taking your long contract for my three one-year deals - but deals like the Touki trade, which was "prospect + contract for org player," look too much like the straight sale of a player and that would be discouraged by the league.
Rodney
1:19
Love your chats! I understand why you don't like ranking players before they have time in pro ball. Has Griffin Canning played enough to give you a sense of where he ranks among Angels prospects?
Keith Law
1:20
I ranked him in January, but four starts/16 innings wouldn't change that.
Tim
1:21
Is Peter Alonso the best 1B in the Mets org right now?
Keith Law
1:22
I still think Smith would be fine if the Mets would just play him, but Alonso would be a top 100 prospect now (given some graduations & new looks at him) and I think he's an above-average regular at least.
Maybe Smith will show up on time if he thinks someone is right behind him...
Andy
1:23
Where do you think Gregory Polanco’s ceiling is after his first few seasons in the Majors? He’s frustratingly erratic in his on-field production.
Keith Law
1:23
Ceiling? Still All-Star. Dude walks, doesn't strike out excessively, runs, has power, has bat speed ... and has a .200 BABIP. I hate to just point to that one number, but good grief, you almost have to try to be that bad on balls in play.
Jo-Nathan
1:24
July 2nd guys have verbal agreements????? Do you think the MLB comes down any other teams for this practice?
Keith Law
1:24
No, they don't care. You can only break the rules that they tell you it's OK to break. Atlanta broke different rules.
1:25
The problem is this system incentivizes such rule-breaking. Don't be surprised when smart people get creative and try end runs around your idiotic method of limiting payouts to Dominician teenagers.
JJ
1:25
Last year, the Cardinals had Carson Kelly on the bench behind Yadi Molina for the season, and he basically never played.  This year, it's Tyler O'Neill, basically doing the same thing.  The writers at the St. Louis Post Dispatch insist that the youngsters gain a lot from sitting on the bench of the big league club.  Wouldn't they be better off playing every day in Memphis?
Keith Law
1:25
Yes. Or playing even semi-regularly in the majors. But that's not the Matheny way.
Greg
1:25
Was watching Tyson Ross go for a 200 pitch no-hitter last week. When he hit 120 pitches, the announcers said "That matches his career high... set four days ago." There needs to be a manager ejector seat, right?
Keith Law
1:26
They had it wrong. The near no-hitter was on 4/20 (whoa), and his previous outing was 107 pitches on the 13th.
Kay
1:26
Was reading about Gsellman taking a spot in the rotation - but he seems really dominant out of the bullpen, throwing harder and looking like he really embraced the new role.  Where does he have the most value going forward?
Keith Law
1:26
I'd try him as a starter again.
Moncada
1:26
You said my .385 BABIP won't last- which I agree with. But my batted ball stats and exit velocity do suggest that I am capable of sustaining an above average BABIP, right?
Keith Law
1:27
Yes, as would simply seeing the bat speed and hand strength. But that K rate is a huge limiting factor, and probably isn't going down without major swing changes.
Adam D.
1:27
Any early buzz about who the Giants might take at #2? I would like to see an upside play like Stewart, but it seems like the general strength of the college players near the top, combined with their refusal to play the rebuilding game makes them likely to go that route. Thoughts?
Keith Law
1:29
The current buzz is that all or at least five of the top six picks will likely be college guys. I wouldn't rule out Stewart - Dick Tidrow, whose opinion really matters in the Giants' draft room, saw Stewart's best outing - but I could see the picks going Mize (1), McClanahan, Bart, Bohm, Madrigal, India, or something similar to that. Bart could go anywhere from 2 to 9, Madrigal maybe 5-9, Bohm 3-6. Mize is atop just about everyone's boards, even guys who don't like the delivery.
Jo-Nathan
1:29
Luke Heimlich's numbers are way down from a year ago; Think any team drafts or signs him?    If yes is this something potential teammates will/can deal with (I couldn't imagine being this guy's teammate or worse roommate on the road)?
Keith Law
1:29
At this point, I don't think so, and I certainly hope not.
Teoscar
1:29
I should be playing everyday over Grichuk correct?
Keith Law
1:29
I think so.
MittyShorph
1:29
Keith, I've seen see talk about certain college programs that hurt player's futures with their abuse of pitchers, odd philosophies, etc. If you were advising a high school senior who could go anywhere and play what programs would you suggest?
Keith Law
1:31
I do think the tide is shifting, gradually, as we see programs like Florida and Vanderbilt win with good pitching yet without overusing pitchers in general. They've recruited better, and built deep staffs relative to most schools. The reign of the College Coaching Axis of Evil - Graham, Marquess, and the late Garrido - is also coming to an end. But we do still see stupid stuff like UConn blowing out Anthony Kay two years ago. And HS coaches have less accountability. Two days before Mike Vasil walked off the mound holding his elbow, he threw an unscheduled, 20-pitch relief inning. How does that benefit him? It's not like there were scouts there to see him.
addoeh
1:31
Going to Kenosha to scout Kelenic anytime soon?
Keith Law
1:31
He plays on a travel team so he's not necessarily in Kenosha but yes, I'll go see him in the next 2-3 weeks.
Amy
1:31
If Betts and Harper were on the market at the same time, who would receive a bigger contract? Let's assume both have years like they're on track for now.
Keith Law
1:32
I think Harper. No knock on Betts, though. Both tremendous talents, but Harper has shown he can do even more when he's healthy.
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