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Klawchat 5/15/24
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Keith Law
1:01
So you say I got a funny face. Klawchat.
Mike R
1:01
I loved the "Thick as a Brick" reference at the top of the last chat.
Keith Law
1:02
I was a big Jethro Tull fan when I was in college, then kind of lost interest for a while. They used "Teacher" in Baby Reindeer (deserves an Emmy for best use of a song in a limited series) and it got me back into them in the last few weeks.
J
1:02
Cleveland clearly likes-and is good at-acquiring and developing hit tool driven 2B. Assuming they have Condon and Bazzana graded equally do you think they should double down on that profile or take the player who’s profile would be unique in the org
Keith Law
1:02
They should take whoever they think is the best player. Period. You don't pick first very often and you don't want to screw it up like the Phils did in 2016.
James
1:02
With respect to James Wood, outside of the improved numbers, have you seen or gotten reports that he’s actually taken a step forward in some of the areas of concern that you had for him coming into this season?
Keith Law
1:03
His slider recognition seems to be way, way improved from last year. I'm a little skeptical of any player's improved plate discipline with the ABS in play in AAA, but he seems to have made a real change.
Rick
1:03
I know this is about 2024, but as an Astros fan with a likely high pick, how strong is the 2025 draft?
Keith Law
1:04
I have no idea. I avoid worrying about next year's draft until the current one is over, especially since such early impressions are often way off.
Neal
1:04
I'm a White Sox fan trying to warm up to the idea of taking a hitter without positional value (to be fair-our guys don't really hit at the less valuable positions either). I saw Jac as 3 doubles this year. Is this a no wheels kind of slugger? I know he's hit a lot of home runs, but Condon has 18 doubles by comparison. Thanks!
Keith Law
1:05
It's a very all-or-nothing approach for Cags and I think that's why some teams are just not on him in the top ten. He swings a lot, he chases a lot, and he's trying to pull everything. That's how you end up with all singles and homers but very very few 2b/3b - and you're correct to worry about what it means going forward.
Punk in Drublic
1:07
any updates to the profiles of Owen Cassie, Thayron Liranzo, or Cam Collier based on their 2024 season?
Keith Law
1:09
I think all 3 have been pretty much as expected so far, other than Liranzo hitting a little worse on BIP. Was hoping Caissie would cut down on the K's with the benefit of ABS in AAA.
Drew
1:09
It’s not Memorial Day and there are already two public videos of the Nationals coaching staff and CJ Abrams disagreeing about his approach at the plate. 1) how much should an MLB team be telling a player how to swing (feels very Stanford’y) and 2) how concerning should it be that there is such a visible disagreement between the staff and best player?
Keith Law
1:10
I hate that stuff becoming public regardless of the player and org - that belongs behind closed doors, IMO. It doesn't reflect well on the coaching staff, including the manager. That said, it is absolutely the coaching staff's job to work with players on their swings and their approaches.
Punk in Drublic
1:10
It feels like based on his stat line Jonah Tong has shown some marked improvement this season (specifically with his reduction of walks).  Have you heard anything about him imparting a significant way or is it more SSS?
Keith Law
1:10
Yep, he's legit. Would probably be a top 100 guy at this point. Fastball is easily plus in every way.
Dan
1:12
With Mitchell Parker and Jake Irving doing well (111 and 128 ERA+, respectively), Andry Lara blowing up seemingly out of nowhere--are the Nationals actually developing pitchers?
Keith Law
1:13
No - Parker's start to his career looks like a raging fluke. He's giving up more hard contact than the opponents' avg would imply and is lucky he hasn't allowed more homers. Both he and Irvin have large platoon splits already, and I would expect that to get exposed as teams stack lineups with LHB.
Sam
1:13
How much success does a prospect need to have with unconventional mechanics/skill set before it stops being a concern?
Keith Law
1:15
Kind of depends on the mechanics/skill in question. For pitchers with weird deliveries - and this year's draft has a LOT - I think you focus more on the stuff, and how it plays, and make small adjustments based on your concerns about the delivery, rather than just saying "NOPE" to a guy like Yesavage, who I don't think has ever had an arm issue and who is dominating with the FB/split. I think it's more fair to be skeptical of, say, a hitter with a really unusual swing (Chase Delauter comes to mind, although the poor guy is hurt again), because that seems to be way more of an impediment in the majors than an unusual delivery.
Sorry for the non-answer.
Paul in SF
1:15
Thanks for all the hard work!  This draft doesn't have the top 5 of last year, so comparatively, how many "TOP 25" guys do you see overall?  I would assume Condon and Bazzana, but anyone else?  Just curious as to the difference at top.
Keith Law
1:16
That's probably it. And I'm not totally sure that either of those guys cracks last year's top 5.
M
1:16
Christopher Morel's plate discipline has really improved - walk rate way up, K rate real down, some bad BABIP luck this year. OTOH his defense has been horrendous and he is on pace for 1 WAR again. Is this a player worth investing in?
Keith Law
1:18
I think he's a DH. I did notice the plate discipline stuff you mentioned ... he's also hitting the ball on the ground a decent amount more often than last year, and I wonder if that's all connected, that he's trading some whiff for some less favorable contact. If Shaw, who's also had some awful BABIP luck, performs well enough to get to the majors this summer, he should get the 3B job.
Matt
1:18
I noticed Skenes pitched 4 innings but had like 20 pitches that were over 100 mph. Wouldn’t it be better if he threw 96 but was able to go 6 or 7 innings? Or is there not a big difference in 4-5 mph with regards to stress on the arm? It just seems ill advised to throw as hard as you can all the time.
Keith Law
1:20
In theory, yes, I agree with you, but the unknowable variable here is how much it taxes Skenes' arm to throw 100 versus 96. I'm hoping that the splinker helps take some of the pressure off him to throw 100, because the four-seamer doesn't play as well at the lower end of his range - it doesn't have much ride or run, while the splinker has a lot more vertical break and I think hitters are going to have a really hard time hitting it anywhere but into the ground.
Mj
1:20
Is Brett Bateman a prospect? No power at all, but gets on base at a really high clip and is fast. Or am I just dreaming of lead off men of my youth?
Keith Law
1:20
I'd really have to see him do something in AA given his age/experience before buying into it.
SCG
1:20
Keith, first of all, thanks for all your work put and also for the chats! Do you see Vance Honeycutt going in the first two rounds? Is it possible he moves into the first round?
Keith Law
1:21
It is possible he goes in the first, but on merit he's a second rounder, and I know teams are well aware of his holes at the plate. He's at a 30% K rate in the ACC this year, and everyone remembers Jud Fabian, who is punching out too often while repeating AA this year.
It's a similar profile: ++ power, ++ CF defense, too much whiff.
Braydon
1:21
In your mock you said the class overall is one of the weakest you can remember. How does the Top 11 specifically compare to the top of recent drafts?
Keith Law
1:21
It's weaker. A strong top of the draft will nearly always color our collective opinion of a draft.
Nervous Flyball Pitcher
1:21
Your latest mock has the Orioles pointing to several position players, but with Burnes heading out of town, DL Hall gone, and control/command question marks on Povich and McDermott, which pitchers would you have them draft?
Keith Law
1:22
I'd have them take the best player available, and in my mock I project what I believe teams will do, not what they should do. I don't think the O's have taken a pitcher in the first round under Elias, and I know from mutual acquaintances that the Appel-Aiken-Whitley picks have soured him on doing so again. (Who could blame him?)
Z Chow
1:22
Big fan of your work, Keith. Do you collect any baseball cards or memorabilia at all?
Keith Law
1:23
I do not. I'm not much for collecting; I do have a large board game collection, but I'd only say about 8-10 of them are ones I have "collected" versus games I like and think I might play again. I have a first edition of Egizia, for example, that is worth a decent amount, and the second edition changed some of the rules and the board in a way I don't care for, so I'm hanging on to this.
Chris
1:23
What kind of trade package would you be comfortable sending over for Luis Robert? Vs what would you be asking for if you were the white Sox?
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