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Klawchat 5/15/24
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Keith Law
1:24
They should ask for the Juan Soto deal (the first one, with Wood and Gore and Abrams). He's got three years left after this one, including two club options, and that is worth a TON - he's under control but you have the choice to walk away if something goes wrong.
William C
1:24
What can the Athletics reasonably expect in return for Mason Miller?  Follow up, what would you give up for him? I figure the answers differ given your thoughts on closers.
Keith Law
1:25
If I'm trading for Miller, I'm valuing him as if he had two years of control left, because his injury history says expecting anything beyond that is pure fantasy. Even that might be optimistic but if you think he's only good for another half-season you're just not trading for him.
Heather
1:25
Do you ever watch college baseball on television, or is that just a completely useless way of scouting?
Keith Law
1:26
I watch it but it's not great for scouting - the angles are all wrong - more for just getting the feel for how the players are playing rather than breaking down mechanics. Can certainly see how a player is approaching an at bat, for example.
Matt
1:26
What’s with all these athletes being MAGA Chuds? Schilling, Butker, LT, Mariano Rivera, etc. It’s amazing, really.
Keith Law
1:27
Those guys don't all have equivalent beliefs, mind you. But I think they all have similar religious backgrounds, and for some reason, the evangelical movement has moved very, very far to the right - even though I think that's inconsistent with the secular aspects of Christ's philosophy (omitting questions of his divinity).
Jeremy
1:27
Thru 119 PA, Rowdy Tellez is batting .178/.252/.234 (.486) with a 42 OPS+,42WRC+ after 351 PA batting .215/.291/.376 (.667) with a 81OPS+, 78WRC+ in 2023. How long will the Pirates take to finally start playing him less, and why hasn't it happened yet?
Keith Law
1:27
I don't know, and I don't know.
1:28
Tellez has over 2000 MLB PA at this point and he's almost dead replacement level. You have to have someone better than him in AAA or you've failed.
Santaspirt
1:29
I either miss your chats and remember the question I had for you, or I show up to your chats and forget what I wanted to ask you. There is no in between. Anyway, great mock. I only have the Athletic because of your writing.
Keith Law
1:29
Thank you! Maybe you'll remember before 2 pm.
Rafael G.
1:29
What is Coby Mayo's Ceiling?  He is hitting the cover off the ball, but does he have a chance for passable defense at third?
Keith Law
1:30
If you're betting on an ultimate position, I'd say RF > 1B > 3B. But I don't think it's impossible he stays at third, in a vacuum, assuming he didn't die from the lack of oxygen. They just have a lot of infielders who are better.
Danny
1:30
The Yankees have pushed recent draft picks to play premium positions that the general consensus did not agree (Wells at C, Sweeney staying at SS and Jones in CF). Do you think they could do the same with Jordan, Waldschmidt or Moore?
Keith Law
1:31
Yes. Even when I don't agree that the player can stay there, I think it's a smart developmental approach. What do you lose by playing a guy at the toughest (and most valuable) possible position he could play? Very little, I think. And maybe you prove the consensus wrong.
Josh
1:31
Assume if the Guardians go well below slot at 1:1 it's just a money saving move and a mistake? Those vanity senate runs by Matt Dolan can't be cheap.
Keith Law
1:32
It would be to go after some over-slot guys with later picks. I've heard several times that this is their plan. I just don't think this draft offers the same quantity of over-slot candidates that last year did, or even 2021 when the Pirates took Henry Davis well under slot and then got two of their top prospects today in Chandler and Solometo.
Joe
1:32
Possible we are seeing a delayed breakout for Clarke Schmidt or Luis Gil?
Keith Law
1:33
I had Schmidt on my breakout list this year so of course I'm hoping that's true. Gil has always had a great arm, but he's leading the AL in walks, and it's especially acute vs LHB.
Dr. Bob
1:33
People complain about the Dodgers pricing other teams out of competition. I understand that contracts like they gave to Ohtani and Yamamoto might not fit their budgets, but they could spend much less money to build scouting and player development systems like L.A. has. That's how they get players like Andy Pages and Teoscar Hernandez.
Keith Law
1:34
That so few teams have maintained scouting, development, and R&D staffs like the Dodgers is baffling to me. We can all joke about Dodgers Devil Magic, but jesus it's right there in front of you. They employ more people in those departments, and they have those departments working together as well as any organization in baseball. It's not a secret. If you made me a GM or President of BB Ops, I would copy them. Like, print the org chart, change the names, rock and roll.
addoeh
1:34
Ryan Sloan a second rounder or compensatory round candidate?
Keith Law
1:35
I'd say between picks 20 and 40. Over-slot if he gets past 30. I was supposed to see him last night but the rain was coming so I came home and saw Bryce Meccage instead.
Geoff
1:35
What is going on with Bazzana all of a sudden becoming the top guy in most recent mock drafts? Is it solely because of that report from ESPN? Or is there something that is going around that everyone knows about?
Keith Law
1:35
What report from ESPN? Bazzana's been a 1-1 candidate all spring, and he's had a tremendous year. He and Condon are the only two realistic candidates for 1-1 in my view, although I mentioned a third name in the mock today because I heard Cleveland might consider it.
1:36
BTW, I was able to see a live feed of Konnor Griffin's game last night. It was tied, and with no one on and two outs, Griffin's coach intentionally walked a batter - the potential winning run - only to see him come around and score. It has to be one of the worst unforced managerial errors I've ever seen.
Gabriel
1:37
Keith you were always a fan of Mathew Lugo. Is his current production a sign of him finally meeting expectations or is it just a player that is now too old for AA
Keith Law
1:38
He's repeating the level and still striking out too often, but I do think the power surge is real. He might still find a way to the majors.
Justin Y
1:38
Kevin Alcantara just can't seem to get over the hump it feels like. Is he just going to be a late bloomer?
Keith Law
1:38
He's 21 in AA. He's younger than most of the college guys about to get drafted.
Troy
1:38
Would sending Chourio down be a good idea or is there just not much for him to learn in AAA?
Keith Law
1:39
Don't think he has anything to learn in AAA. The gap between that level and the majors is enormous. Teams have to adjust and be willing to let hitters come up and struggle for a few months as they adjust to better pitching. It was true with Holliday and with Henry Davis and Kjerstad too.
Guest
1:39
Hey Keith, thanks for the chat. A's fan here who thought we should have drafted Shaw but not too upset w/Wilson. How would you rank Shaw last year vs other 2B Bazzana & Wetherholt this year? Thanks
Keith Law
1:40
Shaw's comparable to those guys as hitters, probably more power than Wetherholt, less pure hit tool. Can't comment on Wetherholt's defense at this point since he's barely played the field (and barely moved when he has).
Matt
1:41
When Harper was drafted, how did teams know he was a generational talent? What set him aside that everyone knew the Nationals were taking him as opposed to a normal draft where you hope the pick pans out?
Keith Law
1:41
We'd seen him against older competition since he was 15. He was as obvious a 1-1 pick as we might ever see.
Dugan
1:42
What is going on with Jack Leiter? He seemed to dominate AAA, but has been totally lost in all of his MLB games. Anything in particular going on?
Keith Law
1:44
Yeah, his 4-seamer has guys racing to the bat rack. He might as well walk to the plate and put it on a tee. Hitters will tell you if a pitch isn't any good, and they're telling us, loudly. At this point I'd send him down and see if he can throw a decent two-seamer because the four-seamer is way too straight and doesn't have other attributes to make up for it.
David
1:44
Do you see any chance Condon or Bazzana fall to Rox at 3? and would they still take one of Smith/Burns if one of those guys were still on the board?
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