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Klawchat 5/21/20
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Keith Law
1:01
You were only waiting for this moment to arise. Klawchat.
addoeh
1:01
Is there any backstory to how the Cubs drafted Hayden Simpson?
Keith Law
1:06
I think this was the most common question on my 2010 redraft. The short version, from my memory, was that their scouting director, Tim Wilken - who, to his credit, has been very open with everyone about how that pick went awry - got rained out on his original plans for a game late that spring, and ended up at Southern Arkansas' playoff game where Simpson had one of the best outings of his life, up to 95 with command and feel. With nobody they really loved for that pick, Wilken took the player he'd seen pitch so well himself. That's a process error, of course, especially since they would almost certainly have been able to take Simpson in the second round if they absolutely wanted him.  What we will never know is if Simpson's velocity spike that spring was just a fluke, or if he'd really gained something that never came back after he caught mono.
1:07
That 2010 first round was the worst for me to cover, because I could not for the life of me remember who Simpson was when he was taken, and then the Yanks took another player way off my top 100 (Culver). That seldom happens now.
TomBruno23
1:07
Are you on Goodreads? Can we be friends?
Keith Law
1:07
I'm not on Goodreads - I prefer to keep all my book content on my own site.
Andy
1:07
You need to convert your daughter to team hot fruit.
Keith Law
1:08
She loves pie, but her birthday's a bit early for any local fruit other than strawberry, which I think is best served with shortcakes or just on its own.
Deke
1:08
Starting to think summer is going to be a pretty dramatic influencer on how the pandemic goes, or too early to say?
Keith Law
1:08
I don't think I know nearly enough to answer that.
Kevin
1:09
In your book you discuss the high risk of drafting high school pitchers in the first round. Is there any less risk with high school lefties vs righties?
Keith Law
1:09
There wasn't enough data to answer that question.
Michael
1:09
An article (ESPN) today stated that the best option for the Phillies in the case of a Universal DH would be Alec Bohm.  But wouldn't a better option be Hoskins at DH and Bohm at first?
Keith Law
1:09
Absolutely. Bohm would be a better defender at 1b than Hoskins.
Michael
1:09
Hey Keith- trying to get a handle on the 20-80 rating scale.  Does it mean that a player with a 50 grade is league average?  And if a player had 50 grades across the board (eye, power, defense, etc.) would he be expected to have a WAR of 0.0?  I'm guessing not, but just trying to get a better understanding of what the numbers mean.  Thanks!
Keith Law
1:10
A 50 is major league average; a player with all 50s should be a regular, not a replacement-level player (WAR 0).
Harrisburg Hal
1:10
I appreciate the podcast that introduced me to Sagrada.  I've been playing the app for a few weeks now and could see buying the physical game to play with my kids who like Azul so much.  I know you don't eat red meat any longer.  Do you miss carnitas?
Keith Law
1:11
I don't eat beef or lamb, but I still eat pork in limited quantities. I probably have carnitas in some form 2 or 3 times a year. I should probably give up all red meat, but eating pork just occasionally - and the most enjoyable cuts at that, like pork shoulder or belly - seems to satisfy my desire for it without making me feel sick. (It seems that the metabolic disorder I share with my daughter makes red meat especially tough for us to digest.)
Chuck
1:12
This feels like the longest Superbowl pregame show ever, and I checked out a long time ago. Can we just write off sports in 2020 and come back strong in 2021? Wake me when it's over.
Keith Law
1:12
If we do that, some aspects won't come back. Minor league baseball is going to be crushed by a lost season, for example.
Johnny
1:13
Doctors wear N95 filtration face masks and are able to treat covid-patients directly without contracting.  There are plenty of KN95 face masks available to purchase everywhere online (both have 95% filtration) for around $1-$3.  Can't the general public wear these KN95 face masks outside their home and open up the states?  There are many Asian countries that mandate this and have successfully opened up for business.  Why can't we follow what other countries are doing?
Keith Law
1:14
I don't know the answer to this, but I will say we can't even get everyone to wear cloth masks to go to the grocery store without some gun-clutching loon shouting "FREEDOM!"
Mike
1:14
Of course the worst first round pick you have seen belongs to the Cubs (pre-Theo/Jed). As a Cubs fan it always felt like they always had prospects they expected big things from (e.g. Colvin, Patterson) that never panned out. I understand that teams are going to pump up their guys but it seems like it was an issue in the organization at the time. What was the cause of this? Bad scouting, bad strategy, etc.?
Keith Law
1:16
They definitely drafted more for tools than skills or performance for a long time, hitting big on a few (Javy Baez really was in that mold, but he got much better in pro ball) and whiffing on the majority (Brett Jackson!). But Colvin wasn't even that toolsy, just as Simpson wasn't; some picks were just the results of their unique process and I don't want to generalize too much without knowing what led them to take those players - Colvin and Corey Patterson were taken by two different regimes and couldn't be less similar as players.
Donny
1:16
Favorite film by the Coen Brothers? What are your thoughts overall on them?
Keith Law
1:18
If you're asking me which one I'd most want to watch right now, that's The Big Lebowski. I don't know if that's really their 'best,' if we're talking critical value rather than sheer entertainment.
Mike
1:18
Hi Keith - do you plan on updating or expanding your draft rankings prior to the draft?
Keith Law
1:18
Yes, of course.
Mike
1:18
Holy crap you could have built a super team in 2010 with players not drafted in round 1
Keith Law
1:18
This happens often, but 2010 seems to have been especially bad for the first round.
John
1:18
For all of the various plans that require seemingly impossible steps/benchmarks to meet, can we really go back to having sports before there is a vaccine widely available?
Keith Law
1:19
Sports, yes. Fans in stands, probably not. And even then, we have enough people who are likely to refuse or hesitate on a COVID-19 vaccine that, barring mandatory vaccinations (which, as a result of a flood of right-wing judicial appointments in the last 40 months, ain't likely), it may still not be safe to allow fans after a vaccine is introduced.
Johnny
1:19
Instead of giving everyone $1200, shouldn't the gov't prop up banks so that the banks can defer mortgages and landlords can def rent?  I feel that the gov't continues to waste so much money while so many continue to default on loans
Keith Law
1:20
Bailing out the banks didn't do a whole lot for Americans last time around.
Mike
1:20
No real question today.  Just a thanks for your pro-science stance and posting from a biochemist
Keith Law
1:20
You're welcome. I think it's an obligation for anyone with a platform, given how many anti-science people are willing to use their podiums to spread disinformation and outright falsehoods.
Perks of Being a ...
1:20
Which player has more upside, Reid Detmers or Nick Gonzales? Seems pretty similar, with one inherently coming with more risk.
Keith Law
1:20
If Detmers really does end up with 70 command, it's him. More risk because he's a pitcher, though.
Darren
1:20
Are there 'risers' or 'fallers' in this year?  What is affecting draft position towards the top of the draft?
Keith Law
1:21
I don't think players are rising or falling except around signability.
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