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Klawchat 5/30/19
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Keith Law
1:32
Yes. New changeup, tweaked delivery, better focus too. Gave up a 3R bomb in the first the other day and bore down afterwards to dominate.
CD
1:32
Based on your mock and Top 100, it appears Oakland would be reaching a bit on Greg Jones. Are you hearing them on any other guys closer to your draft rankings?
Keith Law
1:32
Yes - some will be gone, like Will Wilson or Busch, and some would be good value but higher-risk like Goss. They're on all of them and Logan Davidson too. I just think Jones has a real hit tool question and can't stay at short.
Will R.
1:33
Keith, per your recent mock draft it looks like you have Chicago kid Quinn Preister slipping a bit. His draft stock take a hit lately due to performance?
Keith Law
1:33
Not at all. Just that the industry doesn't love HS RHP.
Michael
1:33
Can you explain Bellinger's success?  He hit one HR as a senior in high school. How does he go from that to perhaps the best power hitter in the league in such a short time. Is this projectable for anyone in this year's draft class?
Keith Law
1:33
Swing changed a lot in pro ball. Also I think everyone missed what a great defender he was at 1b and that he could play at least average defense in CF (a really rare combination).
Adam D.
1:34
I'm not overly enthusiastic about Bryson Stott to the Giants. Seems like a high floor, low ceiling pick. Would you agree with that, or does he have a chance to be more than an average regular?
Keith Law
1:34
I had them taking Bishop, not Stott. I don't think there's a scenario where they end up with Stott, because one of Bishop or Manoah probably gets to them. If Bishop goes 9, I'd give the Giants Manoah and the Blue Jays Rutledge, and then Stott still gets to 13.
Aaron C.
1:35
What's the plan for "Klaw-smas Day" (draft day)? TV hits? Running blog-like commentary/diary? Or, should I mind my own damn business?
Keith Law
1:36
Doing some TV hits on Baseball Tonight Sunday, then I don't know about Monday yet. I'll chat in the afternoon, for sure, and probably live-tweet that evening? I'll file a day one recap that night for sure and do a second chat Tuesday afternoon after the third round.
Pete
1:37
Should the Mets just keep playing Dom Smith in LF until Nimmo returns so he gets regular reps for the time being or is it not worth the defensive hit the team would take?
Keith Law
1:37
They're not going to the playoffs this year so I'd play him - and tell him his defense doesn't matter, just worry about hitting - and let him get more at bats.
James
1:37
Is Dustin May a future #1?  Separately, can he be useful in relief for LA later this year?
Keith Law
1:37
I feel like more #2 than #1 due to delivery but I wouldn't be shocked if he turned into an ace in time. Great athlete with ridiculous shit.
Tom
1:37
Any scuttlebutt on who the Red Sox may their eye on at #43?
Keith Law
1:38
Very little, but I did hear them connected to the two hitters at U of Arizona, Quintana and Cannon. They're just so far down that I don't hear much gossip about them.
Dan
1:38
Hey Keith, thanks as always for the chats! I know we’ve established that ‘clutchiness’ doesn’t exist but what about the really extreme hot streaks? I’m talking about Arietta’s 2015 second half (0.75 ERA/0.727 WHIP in 107 IP) or Yelich’s 2018 second half (.367/.449/.770, 25 HR in 65 games). Are these guys just seeing the ball exceptionally well or have perfect arm action for months at a time? Or is this a mix of talent and a lot of luck in not having a bad stretch of games? I guess what I’m getting at here is if you’re up against one of those guys when they’re on a roll like that, is their recent hot performance a predictor of future performance?
Keith Law
1:39
The smaller the time period, the more frequent extreme performances will be.
Mark
1:39
do you have more faith in the Giants talent evaluation this draft than you have in the past?
Keith Law
1:39
Did I ever say I didn't like their evaluations? I may not have loved some of their high picks but I don't remember ever questioning their scouting staff.
Jordan
1:40
Will JJ Bleday be an above average regular in the MLB?
Keith Law
1:41
I think so. He might have the strongest hands/wrists in the draft. Even with that hitch in his swing, he can drive the ball to all fields like it's nothing.
Teddy
1:41
Can you expand on your response to the Hunter Bishop strikeout question? Are you saying you don't think he has a strikeout issue, or it's not clear what the cause is?
Keith Law
1:41
I don't think it's mechanical or some kind of lack of pitch recognition.
Jonathan
1:41
Cameron Cannon has hit very well in college in this year. Thoughts on where he might go in the draft and is the knock on him his defense?
Keith Law
1:41
Specifically that he has no position, but he can hit.
Jeff
1:42
Do you agree that it's best to combat anti-vaxxers with debate and not censorship? I ask because the refusal to debate/ growing push to censor them seems to empower them and even give credence to their ridiculous claims among those who are on the fence, at least in my small sample.
Keith Law
1:42
The best way to combat them is to ban nonmedical exemptions, and then educate the few people who fight it.
Matt Klentak
1:42
Keith, My track record in the draft is below-average. Who should I draft at 14?
Keith Law
1:42
I've heard them with all manner of players - I think my last list for them had a college bat, a HS bat, a college arm, and a HS arm. I'd like to see them not play it safe because that hasn't worked well for them.
Alex
1:43
You mention the Nats routinely take "famous" players.  Any reason or method to that for them?
Keith Law
1:43
It's worked kind of well for them. Their record with first and supplemental-round picks is quite good.
Ed
1:43
Please tell me the Padres aren't going with another arm in round 1
Keith Law
1:44
I only listed them with bats in my mock.
Rick Hahn
1:44
Coming into today's game Zach Collins is hitting .248/.375/.522, which is very similar to Adam Dunn's line with the Reds .247/.380.520.  Is Dunn a good hitting comp for Collins, who looks to be a 3 true outcomes type of hitter.
Keith Law
1:44
I don't think they're close.
Mok
1:44
Do I have this right according to the party of science: misgendering someone or even being slightly skeptical of vaccines is literal violence, but killing an unborn child is "reproductive rights"?
Keith Law
1:44
No, you don't have it right. And I don't think it matters to you that you're wrong.
JP
1:45
The Rays struggling to break 6,000 fans while playing .640+ ball is probably a harbinger of the future of baseball in St Petersburg, right?
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