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Klawchat 6/19/24
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Keith Law
3:02
You say you love me but not quite yet. Klawchat.
JP
3:02
If you had to assign a 20-80 grade to this year's draft class as a whole, what would it be?
Keith Law
3:03
It's a 40. There have been worse, there could conceivably be much worse, but this is well below the median for me.
Paul
3:03
Do you anticipate a substantial change in the Nats draft prospect preference given the front office additions over the past year, or do you expect Rizzo’s classic archetypes to prevail?
Keith Law
3:03
New group making the picks, so I expect a new philosophy. I doubt it will contradict Rizzo's preferences but I expect a different tone to the draft.
KC
3:03
SSS, but Matt Shaw is struggling and younger James Triantos is doing what we thought Shaw would do. Is he a legit prospect and will Shaw turn it around?
Keith Law
3:03
Not just SSS but the batted-ball data on Shaw is way better than the superficial stats. Don't scout the stat line.
Jay
3:04
I am a loyal Astros whose views align with most of what you’ve said over the years about the franchise. Does Dana Brown have a chance to be successful? I hope so.
Keith Law
3:04
Not if Crane's Cronies are pulling the strings. I was at least glad to see they acknowledged the sunk cost on Abreu and took him off the roster - I expected them to cling to the contract. Now, whether they've changed the process that led to such a clearly bad signing is another matter.
J.
3:05
If Ernie Clement keeps playing high level defense at 3B and maintains .700+ OPS, he’s an everyday guy, yeah?
Keith Law
3:06
No. He's doing virtually all his damage against LHP, and in this tiny sample (136 PA) he's faced a disproportionately high percentage of lefties (41%). I'd also argue that the .700 OPS he's posted is on the less valuable side, with an OBP under .300.
Hogie
3:06
The Nats' rotation as a whole seems to have made great strides. Is it still small sample size/smoke and mirrors with some HR luck, or have guys like Jake Irvin and Mitchell Parker shown you something?
Keith Law
3:08
I'm taking the under on Parker (wildly lucky so far, no out pitch) and Irvin (still can't get LHB out, doesn't have an average pitch for them) and the over on Gore.
JJ
3:08
You've indicated that this year's draft class is weaker/shallower than past years, correct?  I've heard the same thing about this year's NFL draft, and the upcoming NBA class as well.  Is that a coincidence, having off years in all three sports?
Keith Law
3:09
I've heard the argument that the 2020-21 cycle of losing an entire spring/summer for most kids is the reason for this, but I'm not sure why that would be true when it didn't adversely affect last year's class.
John
3:09
Do you view the top of the class high school bats (Griffin/Rainer) as star ceiling types or something less than that? Which of those two would you pick first if it were your call at this point?
Keith Law
3:11
The answer to any question like that is on my ranking of the top 100 prospects in the draft.
Will
3:11
Initial thoughts/reaction on Skenes so far?
Keith Law
3:11
Not really.
J
3:11
The CWS broadcast showed that Nick Kurtz and James Tibbs have fairly significant platoon splits-would this concern you if you were drafting in the top 10?
Keith Law
3:12
Yes, it's a factor, but not a 'kill' for me on its own because a lot of amateur players just lack much experience facing LHP. I'd dig deeper into just why they have those splits, such as whether they're getting crushed by certain pitch types or locations, and talking to the area scouts involved to estimate the odds of them improving in that area.
Punk in Drublic
3:12
What Mets prospects do you think have improved the most this season?
Keith Law
3:13
Too broad a question, sorry.
Kevin
3:13
Kristian Campbell is tearing up AA with a 426/500/741 slash after tearing up High A. Going from High A to AA seems to be the biggest jump in the minors. I know it's a SSS for the year but do you think he is close to being a top 100 prospect?
Keith Law
3:13
He's a real prospect but you are citing a slash line from 13 games. That is a drop in the bucket.
Ed H
3:13
Hey Keith, Rest in piece Say Hey Kid...  so if you were in the front office, what would you say to the GMs/managers to play prospects like Marco Luciano more?  A few errors at now he's not allowed to bat anymore...
Keith Law
3:15
Teams have to adjust their approach to position player call-ups - so many of them are struggling on first exposure to MLB pitching and many teams aren't willing to give them the long runway to make adjustments. It's easier for non-contenders, but even contenders have to consider the call-up decision differently - how do we handle player X if he strikes out 50% of the time at first? Are we willing to guarantee him 100, 200, more PA before deciding whether to return him to AAA, where he'll probably hit .480 because the pitching there will look like Little League compared to what he saw in the majors?
Ken
3:15
Is Gunnar Hoglund anything more than a back of the rotation starter?
Keith Law
3:15
Is he even that?
Guest
3:15
How shocked are people going to be when Gage Jump blows out early in his MLB career. Jay Johnson doesn’t care I guess. Shameful
Keith Law
3:15
Nobody will be shocked, not in pro ball at least. Jump already blew out once, too.
Big Fan
3:15
Klaw, how much are teams shying away from using a high pick in a 1B given recent history?
Keith Law
3:16
In a stronger draft, the 1B would go a little lower, but this draft just isn't very strong.
André René Roussimoff
3:16
In retrospect, was infield shifting actually doing much to suppress offense or has pitching development and coaching just improved more than hitting has? (Rest in power, Willie Mays.)
Keith Law
3:16
I don't think banning the shift has helped much if at all. It's theater.
KC
3:16
I know the perception of Biden is meh, but he does have wins to point to and while I'd prefer a younger President, why isn't there more panic about what could/would happen if Trump gets in office. It would be legitimately disastrous for our country and for the disenfranchised.
Keith Law
3:17
The mainstream media is busy bothsidesing this. The coverage should be focused on one candidate's pledges to persecute his enemies and further erode the rights of huge swaths of the population.
Sam
3:17
Jacob Gonzalez's numbers look good this year after a poor start to his pro career. WIll he be in top 100 contention if he keeps it up?
Keith Law
3:17
He's slugging .399 this year. The top 100 isn't just a ranking of performance, but that's not pushing someone who was off the list on to it, either.
MIKE S
3:17
Any book recs about Roman Empire and/or Vatican ?
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