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Klawchat 6/19/25
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Keith Law
2:02
Make a whole new religion. Klawchat.
Danny
2:02
Had really high hopes for Chance Adams and James Kapreilian. Kap the most talented Yankees pitching prospect in the last 15 years?
Keith Law
2:03
Good question. Probably the highest I ranked any Yankees pitching prospect in that span unless I'm forgetting someone way back. (I never bought the Adams hype. Reliever all the way.)
Chris
2:03
Hi Keith, I’m not sure there’s any point to the question “Should the Red Sox have traded Devers?” But it can be frustrating for fans to be told “the industry models have this contract as underwater” and “it saves them money in the long run” as justification for jettisoning the guy in his prime who made fans love the team in the first place, who sells the most jerseys, and who is the team’s best player. Do some of these front offices not understand what makes fans watch their team, and what sells tickets?
Keith Law
2:05
Yeah the industry models line ... I'm not even sure where that came from, who's feeding that nonsense to writers, but it's kind of meaningless without a shit ton of context they don't provide. Underwater for one team could be above for another. Any projections of financial return have wide error bars around expected player performance and the expected value of production, which in turn depends on the expected playoff status of the team. But to your main point, any FO that cites a contract being underwater as the reason fans should like a trade is completely missing the point. Fans want to win. Fans don't care about that belt that MLB used to give whoever did best in arbitration.
Fred
2:05
Any concern in the number of pitches thrown in that recent college no hitter?
Keith Law
2:07
A longtime scout texted me after it ended to ask what the heck the Razorbacks were doing. Wood missed six weeks this spring with shoulder inflammation; that's not the kid to push a little harder (119 pitches is high, but not a number I'd automatically call out as excessive) in a high-stress game. He's a first-rounder if someone clears the medical. Does the added effort of those last 10-20 pitches add to his risk of injury in the short term - or maybe make his predraft MRI worse?
Teddy
2:07
How often do you look back at past drafts and say, "Wow, I guess that team really did/didn't know what they were doing?"   How many years after a draft takes place before a fan base gets to be judgmental about their team's performance?
Keith Law
2:07
So, Teddy-Heather-Jackie-JJ ... you submitted at least four questions under different names. Don't do that. It's weird.
2:08
To answer your question, I'd say after five years, you have a pretty good idea of what picks worked or didn't, but it takes more like 8-10 to write the whole story of a draft. By that point the HS picks are in their peak-production years, so we should be able to form a coherent opinion on who did well.
Yakety Sox
2:08
Thanks for doing this, Keith. Where are you on Logan Henderson, these days? Did his brief stint earlier this year change anything about your opinion of him? Still a back end starter or something more now?
Keith Law
2:09
Still a back-end starter - I don't see the breaking ball he'd need to be more - but he's one right now.
Danny
2:09
Off the top of your head, is Carlos Lagrange the Yankees best pitching prospect/2nd best prospect? Any idea what injuries Ben Hess and Bryce Cunningham are dealing with?
Keith Law
2:10
No, I would still have him behind those two unless one of them has a serious injury.
Jim
2:10
So, how long until Congress and the Felon-in-Chief rescind today as a Federal Holiday?
Keith Law
2:10
I'm surprised they haven't done so already.
JoRo
2:10
Thank you Keith for all your top notch analysis! What has happened to Keibert Ruiz & Francisco Alvarez? Have you listened to the latest Psychedelic Porn Crumpets album?
Keith Law
2:12
Listened to the PPC album - it's good but not that memorable, if that makes sense. I would never object to someone putting it on, but couldn't tell you a favorite song or anything. I still think Alvarez is going to hit and hit for some real power - he's only 23 and I firmly believe in the axiom that catchers take longer to develop. Ruiz may just not be that good; he certainly isn't an average catcher and the power he's flashed at times in the majors (~2023) or minors just isn't there enough.
Nick
2:13
Between Zazueta and Liñan, which Dodger pitcher has the brighter star in your book, and does either have the chance to be a mid-rotation starter or better?
Keith Law
2:14
Zazueta projects as a starter; Liñan is more likely a reliever than a starter. Not sure if I'd go mid-rotation on Zazueta yet.
droopydave
2:14
You put out a notice against RFK a few months ago.  But are you on-board with removing the artifical dies in our food? Sounds like a good thing.
Keith Law
2:16
That's the problem with it - it sounds like a good thing, but isn't it just chemophobia in a cheap suit? "Artificial" doesn't mean bad or harmful, but RFK Jr and his army of wellness grifters and science deniers say it is, using the appeal to nature. (Although they also attack seed oils, which are perfectly safe and often healthful, and those are natural.) If there is actual evidence a food additive is harmful, then ban it. In the absence of actual, firm evidence, then let consumers decide. If you want to eat "all natural," that's your prerogative. I mean, Amanita bisporigera are all natural too. I'm gonna pass on that one.
Kip
2:16
Thanks for doing these. Has Didier Fuentes moved into Atlanta's top five? Do you have the same projection (mid-rotation starter in a few more years) as you did earlier this year?
Keith Law
2:17
I haven't looked much at all into reordering any team's internal rankings but I do still see Fuentes as a potential mid-rotation starter. It's three real pitches and the splitter looks like it's going to keep getting LHB out for him.
Finnegan
2:17
If the Nats were allowed to trade the #1, what one player would be a fair trade for both teams?
Keith Law
2:18
It should be an All-Star caliber player, right? You get to take whoever you think is the best player in the draft and pay him less than $11 million to control his rights for six-plus years of service, in all of which he'll probably be further underpaid. If that guy is going to generate 25 WAR before free agency, which is on the low side, what's that worth? a 2000% return?
Justin
2:18
In your Mets list, you mentioned "it's bizarre that he doesn’t miss more bats with this arsenal."  That appears to have continued this year.  Any further understanding here?  I'm wondering if there's something weird about his repertoire that gears more toward weak contact than toward whiffs.  58 gb%!  Overall would you say that he's made strides this year to the tune of being a top 100ish prospect?
Keith Law
2:18
um ... who's that about?
Campbell
2:18
So, Kristian Campbell is a terrible fielder at second base -- not his fault, since he wasn't a second baseman in the minors.  It took one day at the Major League level before Roman Anthony had to (rather publicly) get tutored by Alex Cora on how to field ground balls in the outfield.   Do the Red Sox have a problem with the minor league fielding instruction?  Or do they just not care about fielding in general?
Keith Law
2:19
well, I'd say calling up a player to play a position he doesn't know how to play is questionable personnel management, at least. But I also know that across much of baseball, minor league development is more focused on hitting than fielding.
Justin
2:19
Josue De Paula doesnt look like he should be fast, but he has 19 stolen bases.   I certainly don't expect him to have a 40 SB pace in the majors someday or anything, but is there enough speed and savvy there for, idk, 20 per season?
Keith Law
2:19
I don't think so. It's below-average speed. Minor league stolen base totals can be kind of skewed by pitchers who can't/don't hold runners, catchers who can't throw, etc.
Justin
2:19
I can't help but be more impressed by Samuel Basallo's season than Roman Anthony's.   A .336 ISO from a 20 yr old in AAA just *feels* wild and special. Do you think he gets the call soon?   Itd probably be naive to think he'll thrive in the majors, but do you think he can at least survive there yet to the tune of, idk, a 95 wrc+ once space is created?
Keith Law
2:21
I like that you're being realistic here ... there's such an assumption that every elite hitting prospect is going to bang right away, even though most of them don't. Cam Smith's rookie season is even more impressive if you compare him to higher-drafted or higher-ranked guys this year who are struggling with the same competition he's hitting. And yes, I think a 90-95 wRC+ from Basallo is a reasonable expectation, especially since he understands the strike zone and has legit power.
Danny
2:21
Any dope on the Yankees' pick at 39? Impossible to predict who they'll take (or will be available) but any sustained interest in prep shortstop class?
Keith Law
2:21
No dope there, sorry. Just a wild guess, but Cooper Flemming sure seems like their flavor.
Justin
2:21
The Pirates hired a consulting firm to come up with the Ben Cherington hire 5+ years ago.  At the time, that gave me some confidence that the ship would be steered in the right direction. Here we are in year 6 of a rebuild, and the Pirates seem to have year-3-of-a-rebuild level talent. Obviously some of this is Bob Nutting's fault, but what happened here?   Shouldn't an average GM be able to lose on purpose for 5 years and then come out on the other end with more talent than he knows what to do with?
Keith Law
2:24
Ownership needs to take a large portion of the responsibility there. They've also done some things really well, especially in pitching development. Their hitting development hasn't been as successful, and I think that's overshadowing a lot of things. Is Termarr Johnson, owner of one of the most widely praised hit tools in the last five drafts at least, failing to develop on scouting, on player development, or just on him? Henry Davis, who hit absolutely everywhere through AAA - is that a function of asking him to play RF in his debut, irregular playing time since, or were we just wrong about his bat? And so on. It's complicated. I can say "they haven't churned out enough hitters" but when you dig a little deeper I don't see a consistent trend to point to
JoeRo
2:24
Keith- will see the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp this weekend. Anyone I should keep an eye out for?
Keith Law
2:26
Joe Mack. Not a ton else. I'm not a big Deyvison de los Santos believer.
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