Klawchat 6/2/17
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Keith Law
3:32
He played hurt last year and didn't tell the Red Sox. I'm inclined to throw 2016 out the window for him.
Jack
3:33
Has there been enough of a sample to be cautiously optimistic that Avisail Garcia may turn into a useful player?
Keith Law
3:34
He's been useful this year, even with the big dropoff in May from April. Do we think he can be a high-BABIP guy, enough to overcome the lack of walks, speed, or big power? I'd buy that. He had a .350 BABIP in May and hit .301/.345/.485; that's enough to make him a regular in a corner.
Jeff
3:34
Love the Garbage reference. What would you say is Cody Bellinger's ceiling?
Keith Law
3:35
Superstar, MVP type of player. He was originally #2 on my top 100 in January, only behind Benintendi, but everyone I sent the rough list out to said I had him too high. I should have bet on myself for a change.
Gary
3:35
What are your thoughts on Kevin Kramer? Can he be a starter?
Keith Law
3:36
More inclined to say utility guy, since his roll this year is entirely BABIP-fueled ... but a shortstop who never strikes out is a beautiful thing, right? Plenty of guys have started out like that and developed into regulars in their late 20s.
DJB
3:36
Robbie Ray?!?!! Is this real or just SSS
Keith Law
3:36
I think it's real. Huge K numbers last year, prone to the big inning and bad luck (or bad performance) with sequencing. I had him and Aaron Hicks on my 2016 breakouts list. Guess I should just go back and edit that file...
JDB
3:38
If you were a college AD who would your top choices be for manager if you had an opening? The Chad Holbrook experiment looks to be ending. It's like he spent to much time on Twitter.
Keith Law
3:39
Remember how Holbrook came after me when I pointed out the futility of Brandon McIlwain matriculating early, thus removing any chance some MLB team would shove seven figures at him on draft day? Derailed the kid's career, at least for now, although I'm hopeful he'll get back on track at Cal next spring. Between that and overworking some arms, including Clarke Schmidt (who may have been destined to break anyway with that arm action), I can't say it was a great run for Holbrook there. As for candidates, I'll demur because I don't think I know enough people to give a good opinion.
Tim
3:40
Question regarding McKay/Greene - assuming they don't take the mound after the draft - are they likely to try their hand at both pitching and hitting next year or will they likely be headed straight to the mound w/o concern for how well they hit this year?
Keith Law
3:40
McKay will almost certainly do both. Greene's future is on the mound, IMO.
Aaron
3:40
If I recall this correctly, Kingery was one of your top three 2b prospects this (or was it last) year, but outside of the top 100. Does his sudden power boom (SSS) change your perception at all?
Keith Law
3:40
It's Reading, and lots of guys see power spikes in Reading, but graduations from the top 100 would have likely put him on the list anyway.
John
3:40
Can you elaborate on why you think Jack Flaherty (just promoted to AAA) could be a #2? I've read others say he's more of a pitchability 4th starter type.
Keith Law
3:41
I'd ask them why they think he's a "pitchability" type with that stuff. The only knock I've ever heard on him is that his delivery is so easy it might not provide enough deception. Hochevar and Appel come to mind with this.
HH
3:41
Have you heard anything about Brady Aiken's progress? I'm trying to resist scouting the stat line as someone taught me.
Keith Law
3:41
Throwing upper 80s. So in this case the stat line isn't lying to you. He hasn't gotten back to where he was.
Well Played Mauer
3:41
How much should one look into the Hunter Greene workout with the Twins 3 days before the draft?
Keith Law
3:42
That's normal stuff. Teams will work out anyone who'll agree to come work out for them.
Logan
3:42
I asked you about a month ago about Beck to the Braves, and we both agreed that would be a stretch.. I'm hoping for for Gore/Lewis, but just wondering who you think has the higher upside between the two?
Keith Law
3:43
Gore. People I trust talk about Gore in terms that they're not even using for Greene.
Ted
3:43
As someone who has scouted McKay, can you explain the top 5 interest to me? He's 1B only with the bat and that profile isn't great. On the mound, hasn't he been 89-92? Is that profile really worthy of first-round consideration?
Keith Law
3:43
You skipped over the kind of hitter he's become this year - plus hit with power, good plate discipline, super quiet approach. He hit 95 for me in February with a plus change, but last week he looked gassed and was more 89-92, yes.
DJB
3:44
Would Mickey Moniak be 1.1 in this years draft?
Keith Law
3:45
I doubt it, given the presence of two college guys who are 1-1 worthy, but I didn't think he was the #1 guy in last year's draft class either.
Steve
3:45
If you're a team trying to trade with the Astros, would you rather have Martes or Tucker?
Keith Law
3:45
Tucker.
Rich
3:45
Will you be at a Regional this weekend? Super Regional next? Hope to see you in Baton Rouge
Keith Law
3:46
Nope, I don't cover college baseball games, just the prospects, so unless something were easy for me to get to where I could see a handful of first rounders, you'll probably never see me at a regional or super.
Johnny
3:46
do you think any of Jermiah Estrada, Garrett Mitchell, or Danner go to UCLA?
Keith Law
3:46
Probably, almost definitely, and 50/50.
Chris
3:46
Concerns about the hitch in Zack Collins swing? I feel like no one really talked about it leading up to the draft last year...
Keith Law
3:46
Yes, I think I wrote about that in March? definitely a concern.
Guest
3:46
No question just thanks for writing Smart Baseball. Just finished the audiobook. We read to be informed and entertained, and you managed both. Well done!
Keith Law
3:46
Thank you! Glad you found it entertaining - I really wanted to get that material across without making it dry.
Tim
3:47
Hi Keith. T. Trammell seems to be handling low-A ball pretty well as a 19 year old. Does he have some serious helium right now or more "we knew he was good"?
Keith Law
3:47
We knew he was good, yes, but also, it's 46 games - you don't see players' values within the industry change that fast unless there's a big underlying skill change or physical change.
Charles Bronson
3:48
Hi Keith, big fan of your writing, but whats an easy entry-level pie to start baking?
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