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Klawchat 6/30/22
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Keith Law
2:01
It's the sound of a brand new day. Klawchat.
Aaron C.
2:01
Off the top of your head, is this year's midseason top 50 going to feature the most new names due to graduations in the history of Klaw? Celebrators of chaos unite! *cackles*
Keith Law
2:04
Yes, certainly seems that way. I'll do this a few days after the draft, as I did last year, so I can include some of those players as well. Looking back at my preseason top 100 I think 8 of the top 9 will be off the midseason list (where I just go by whether they're in the majors, not rookie status as I do in the offseason). So the top of the midseason list will be especially fun and different.
Jason S
2:04
Who's the more promising breakout player Ceddanne Rafaela or Ezequiel Tovar?
Keith Law
2:04
Tovar. Better chance for + defensive value. Rafaela is a lot smaller, too.
Erica
2:04
Couldn’t someone just put Ben Joyce in their big league bullpen right now?
Keith Law
2:05
They could, but I don't think he'd do very well. He walked 10% of hitters in college this year. That's going to be much higher even in AA, let alone the majors.
Mike W
2:05
Gavin Stone not slowing down in AA, has he passed up Bobby Miller?
Keith Law
2:06
Stone's a good prospect but he's not close to Miller. That's stat-line scouting. Miller was in my preseason top 50 because he has a very good chance to be not just a starter, but a good one.
Bret S
2:06
I appreciate all of the book reviews you do. Maybe a dumb question but how do you finish books you don't like? I have so many I want to read I bail out the minute I realize I don't like the one I'm reading.
Keith Law
2:07
Sometimes I don't, especially if the book is long. I'm not pushing myself to finish books I read for pleasure. I do read a few books a year for completist purposes, like the Pulitzer and Hugo winners, but otherwise I don't see the reason to force myself to read something I don't love. I gave up on How late it was, how late, even though I'm sort of working my way through the Booker winners, because it was so hard to read and unpleasant too. (A book can be hard to read, but enjoyable, like some Faulkner.)
Thomas T
2:07
Hi Keith;
Thoughts on either Wingspan expansions? I've followed many of your recommendations over the years (and have been glad I did). I love Wingspan for its short gameplay, so I'm wondering if the added time isn't really going to bring enough value to take it from a <90 min game to closer to 2 hours.
Keith Law
2:10
I've actually never played the expansions - they just announced a third one this week, Asia - mostly because I don't play many expansions to any games. I own so many games, and play so many new games each year for reviews, that I play very few games enough to want to alter the experience with an expansion. It has to really add something good to game play, like Carcassonne's Traders & Builders does, or add better components, like Ticket to Ride's 1910 expansion. But a lot of expansions just add complexity or extend game time, and that appeals to me less. I do have one expansion I want to play & review, for Paris: La Cité de la Lumière, but haven't gotten to it yet.
Mike
2:10
Last week, You and dvr discussed the rebuilding teams but left out one clear one - the Nats. Is it just because they are so early on it it/whats your take on their current state?
Keith Law
2:11
I don't think we tried to cover every single rebuilding team - that would have taken more than the time we have for the show. They are early in their rebuild, but I also think when they get closer the (current) owners are likely to spend big in free agency to supplement, which isn't true for all rebuilding clubs.
David
2:11
Hi Keith, Does the pitching Elijah Green faced at IMG compare at all to what Cam Collier saw in junior college? You had previously mentioned Green faced perhaps the toughest high school pitching in the country this year (please correct me if I'm wrong). Thanks!
Keith Law
2:11
I think that the second part about Green is fair, but no high school pitching is going to be close to what Collier saw facing Florida jucos.
Mike
2:11
Welcome back! Any reason the Yankees don't drop Joey Gallo now, even if they have to eat his salary? And, do you know why he has been so historically, abysmally bad with the Yankees?
Keith Law
2:12
Seems very overreactive. Also, there's no question another team would take him, even if it's just to take the rest of the contract.
Casey
2:12
Masyn Winn seemed like a high risk/reward draft pick in 2020 that has done well this season...do you think he could be an above average regular at SS?
Keith Law
2:13
Yes. Huge credit to the Cards for that draft - Walker and Winn were both very high risk/high reward guys, for different reasons, and so far both have performed at or near the top end of expectations. It's like betting eight the hard way, twice, and hitting it both times. (Not really because that is a stupid bet in craps, but I hope you get the general idea.)
PghJake
2:13
Will Ben Cherrington have the draft pool to pull off this year what he did last year?
Keith Law
2:14
They only have one extra pick this year, and they pick 4th rather than 1st. That's a lot less money in their pool.
Casey
2:14
As a Cardinals fan I keep reading about the success of Gordon Graceffo this season. What's the word on him within the industry?
Keith Law
2:14
I had a note on him in late March in a scouting post and what I wrote then still stands. He's a legitimate mid-rotation starter prospect.
Erik
2:14
Can Christopher Morel be a legitimate starting outfielder? Or do you get Junior Lake vibes?
Keith Law
2:15
There's a whole lot in between those two outcomes. I think he's in the middle of that. Probably not a regular.
Casey
2:15
How has Tommy Edman turned into this? I remember you saying you thought wouldn't be much more than a backup infielder but now he leads the league in WAR...what changed with him?
Keith Law
2:17
Multiple things have changed - he's a pretty different player now, and while I would bet the under on him repeating this in the second half, he's become such a valuable defensive player that his floor is way higher. I don't think he was ever this good a defender in the minors. He also makes more hard contact than I expected, or than he did as a prospect. Right now he'd probably be the first guy on my "guys I was wrong about" list.
Alex
2:17
When do you see Jud Fabian getting selected in the draft?  In other words, did he make the right choice by not signing with the Red Sox last year?
Keith Law
2:19
I don't think he goes any higher and probably ends up with less money than what he turned down. He's the same guy he was a year ago, except now he's almost 22. There's just way too much swing and miss here, with no improvement over two seasons in his main areas of weakness. You can read more about him on my Big Board.
Ryan
2:19
Do you think the Dbacks will promote Carroll this year? The lineup could really use a boost
Keith Law
2:19
That's the wrong reason to promote your best prospect, though. You promote him because he's ready, and needs the bigger challenge.
Billy
2:19
The teams who passed on Lawlar because he was "old" for the class are probably kicking themselves right now.
Keith Law
2:20
Did anyone really do that? I'm sure it was a small factor in some models, but I don't think any team flat-out passed on him for that reason. He was old for the class, though - no scare quotes needed. 19 is old for a HS senior.
Aaron C.
2:20
Restaurant you're most looking forward to hitting up during All Star weekend in LA?
Keith Law
2:22
I'm afraid I won't have much time for food tourism on that trip. Might be more breakfast & lunch and then I improvise for dinners with the Futures Game on Saturday evening (followed by a lot of writing) and then the draft on Sunday night (followed by more writing and sleep).
Aaron C.
2:22
May I selfishly request any modicum of positive prospect-related news you might have from the A's farm system for those of us who are still inexplicably A's fans?
Keith Law
2:23
Yes. Zack Gelof is both justifying my choice to rank him in the "just missed" column and making me wish I'd gone even further. (He's out now with a torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder, though.)
Jesse B
2:23
How concerned are you about Noelvi Marte’s season?
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