JotCast | Klawchat 6/5/25

Klawchat 6/5/25

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Keith Law

2:18

I'm afraid this is probably who he is - this was within the range of possible outcomes even when he was drafted, a guy who just didn't have the pitch recognition or swing decisions to get to the power. I was willing to let last year slide after he got hit in the face and came back so quickly but I think we're seeing evidence that this is it.

Justin

2:18

The statline seems to indicate that Josue de Paula is starting to turn his raw into some game power (HR at a higher rate, higher ISO, etc). Do you think he's taken real steps (in physical or baseball or mental development) and is now one of the great hitters in the minors, or is this still just small sample theatre?

Keith Law

2:18

I worry he's still more passive than patient, but the power is real - it's always been there, and he's getting to it more in games.

Guest

2:18

Keith. Thank you for all of your excellent content. I really look forward to your Music Updates every month. Are you a fan of the late Scott Miller and his bands Game Theory and The Loud Family?

Keith Law

2:18

I am not, sorry.

Justin

2:18

Do you have any personal heuristic on how you project 2 way prospects who suddenly start focusing on one thing? It had to have helped Skenes turn into SKENES at LSU, right? Does the switch to only pitching impact your thoughts on Nolan McLean?

Keith Law

2:19

No heuristic but I do agree that those players can improve more in a shorter period of time because being a two-way player is so much more work.

And McLean went from the bullpen to the rotation after giving up hitting, like Shaun Marcum and Spencer Schwellenbach.

Cora Breslow

2:19

The Red Sox are 6-17 in one-run games. Is that something that evens out over a full season, or is it indicative of fundamental problems with the team?

Keith Law

2:19

It's mostly randomness. Joe Sheehan has harped on that a ton.

2:19

So, why is Roman Anthony still in Worcester?

Keith Law

2:20

I do think there are some swing decision things he could work on before bringing him up. It's not like Mayer, who still has a real mechanical issue with his front leg to fix, has blown the doors off.

Ben (MN)

2:20

With Pablo Lopez out, it looks like Zebby Matthews will get a chance to stick in the majors. What would you expect from him if he keeps the rotation spot the rest of the year?

Keith Law

2:21

I'm bad at those questions - predicting any rookie/young player's performance in a short window feels like rolling the many, many dice I have in this house and then figuring out which four to keep. I like Zebby, I think he's better than a 5 ERA guy, I don't know why he's been materially worse with men on base.

Alek

2:21

Brady house has shown incremental improvement but still too much chase. I could see a paul dejong-ish offensive career from him. What are your thoughts on him at this juncture?

Keith Law

2:21

Right now, he's not going to hit big league pitching enough for that. I need to see exponential improvement rather than incremental.

Alek

2:21

Has seaver king figured it out a little after that tough start to the season?

Keith Law

2:21

A lot. I think his swing is back to 2024.

Alek

2:21

Any updated 1/1 news? All other things equal, i think Doyle fits the nats window better, though being a SP hes much riskier than Holliday.

Keith Law

2:22

I'll do a mock either next week or the week after, have to check the schedule. Personally I am still wide open. If Doyle hadn't been overused last weekend, I probably would flip him back up to #1 on my own list over Holliday. Now I'm torn.

Nick

2:22

Could the Red Sox fine Devers for refusing to play an assigned position?

Keith Law

2:22

Come on.

Frank

2:22

Michael Lombardi started the season as a two way player mostly as a reliever but was turned into a starter and has now moved quickly up the draft lists. Where do you see his future in the MLB? Thanks.

Keith Law

2:23

He's legit, #51 on my Big Board (full scouting report there).

Jhonny

2:23

If you could pick one current team for a season of The Clubhouse to be filmed, who would it be?

Keith Law

2:23

I've never seen that show.

jimmy johnson

2:23

too many holes in montes swing to not make your top 50?

Keith Law

2:23

more or less, yeah. Lot of in-zone miss, and I don't think he's really that disciplined. That's on top of questions about defense & the body.

He's an old man for 20, just looking at his build and how he moves.

2:24

Have you heard any whispers or industry talk on the Mets success with pitchers lately? They seem to have an uncanny ability to turn 4s and 5s into 2s and 3s, and keep them mostly healthy. Severino and Manaea last year. This year it's Canning and converting Holmes to a starter, which is going well so far. Blackburn might be on the list too. Is this just random luck, or have they figured something out?

Keith Law

2:24

It's happening in the majors, but less so in the minors, where I feel like everyone has to throw six different pitches and it's holding some guys back.

Maybe they've got different voices on the two sides? I'm not very plugged in to the major-league staff.

Jackie

2:24

I watch the Red Sox every night, and every night for the last five years, it's the same mistakes: dumb baserunning, bad fielding, no clue on situational hitting. Is that on Alex Cora and the Major League staff, the lack of development/teaching in the minors for guys like Rafaela and Campbell, or am I just an old woman lamenting a bygone era?

Keith Law

2:25

I can't speak to the observations, but they have had a lot of guys reach the majors who weren't fully formed as players - Rafaela especially, I think I've raved about the CF defense forever while also pointing out the guy is an inveterate hacker and hasn't adjusted.

George

2:25

Hey Keith! I’m interested in your view of how the Nats dev/draft reputation has changed over the course of their rebuild. Their ‘23/‘24 drafts are showing much better signs than their drafts early in their rebuild, and they’ve seemed to have more recent dev success stories (Parker, Herz, Irvin etc). I know their reputation on pitching development and drafting has generally been pretty bad, but do you think that’s changing? Or is it just a broken clock situation?

Keith Law

2:28

Any reputation they had is out of date; they've turned over most of their decision-makers in scouting and PD the last two years. I think their 2024 draft looks outstanding already; King's back to himself and in AA now, Dickerson gets raves, and I think Kent, Lomavita, and Cranz are all going to be big leaguers. Bazzell is the one disappointment to me - thought he'd hit, and maybe have trouble on defense.

Andy

2:28

I understand it's short season defensive data, but Betts is looking above average as a SS. Can we marvel at this a bit, an elite RF becomes a middle infielder at age 30.

Keith Law

2:28

I don't buy it. His metrics were so poor before this year.

Brenden

2:28

My son and I are visiting Minneapolis for a Twins game. Can food recs for the area?

Keith Law

2:29

Here's my 2023 roundup from there. Also Lola Pizzeria is outstanding.

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