JotCast | Klawchat 7/14/22

Klawchat 7/14/22

Keith Law

1:01

(just finishing my podcast with DVR, I'll be here to start the chat shortly)

1:14

And other times I feel like I should go. Klawchat.

Carl

1:15

Do you think more teams will do deals like the Braves just made with the Royals to get a high draft pick?

Keith Law

1:15

Most teams value the picks more highly than KC seems to have valued this one. I think there are more buyers than sellers, so to speak. That also tells me that MLB needs to wake up and make all picks tradeable - even this minor trade got quite a bit of attention.

Josh Smith

1:15

What should do the Mets do with Francisco Alvarez considering their lack of production at catcher and DH? What is the ETA for him?

Keith Law

1:16

I don't know about his defense being ready for the majors ... my take from seeing him a good bit last year and talking to scouts this year is that it's probably not, and that's before you consider who he might be catching for the Mets. But the bat would be valuable right now if you could live with him developing on defense.

Deke

1:16

I got a promoted ad on Facebook today that said if you took Tylenol multiple times during pregnancy and your child has autism, you may be entitled to compensation. Sooooo, new nonsense conspiracy theory just dropped.

Keith Law

1:17

Facebook's "efforts" to fight disinformation are just laughable. We need to accept they don't care and deal with them accordingly.

(I just finished reading Dan Pfeiffer's Battling the Big Lie, and he makes some rather pointed arguments about Facebook being worse than pretty much any other site for this.)

TomBruno23

1:17

I have asked about Christian Little before because he is a local kid and I follow his career...put up a 6.94 ERA in 11 2/3 with Cotuit and is transferring to LSU under Wes Johnson. What is a reasonable expectation for him 2023 and going forward?

Keith Law

1:19

Yep, for folks who don't know, Little matriculated early at Vanderbilt, even though he might have been a first-round pick out of HS. By forgoing the draft, he gave up a shot at probably $2-3 million and the benefit of professional coaching. He hasn't been anywhere near expectations since going to school. Maybe the new program turns it around, but it's not like Vandy is some slouch at developing pitching, either. I don't rank guys a year out for the draft but if he were in this year's class he wouldn't be on my top 100.

John

1:20

What is your overall assessment of Elly De LA Cruz? Considering it's likely his biggest shortcoming, how much improvement would you like to see with his plate discipline to where it wouldn't be a major concern?

Keith Law

1:21

He's a top 10 prospect in baseball right now. Probably the best pure athlete in the minors. Has risk, for sure, but the upside is absurd.

Deke

1:21

The winner of the 2024 presidential election is...

Keith Law

1:21

TBD.

John

1:21

If you could use the information you now know, and go back and re-rank your pre-season top 10, how different would it look?

Keith Law

1:22

Pro prospects? I don't think there's a huge difference in the order of a top 10 - people get way too caught up in specific rankings, and don't spend enough time reading what I write about each player. The only one I don't feel great about now is Torkelson. I should have listened to my instincts more there and had him lower, out of the top 10.

1:22

Thoughts on Max Castillo? Has he shown enough to make you think he can be at least a 4/5 starter type?

Keith Law

1:22

No chance. Below average fastball and bad delivery for a starter.

Dave

1:24

Is the answer to the question who will be the first one to the majors from this years draft anyone other than Kumar Rocker or he is a certainty to be the first one. Does he make it this year?

Keith Law

1:24

I think so - the team that takes him will likely be the one that views him as a potential reliever for September.

Paul

1:24

Any reason to think the same thing could happen to Rocker again this year after a team looks at his medical records? I'm still wondering what could have been so bad that the Mets didn't want anything to do with him. (I'd assume even if it were something required TJ surgery they'd still have signed him.)

Keith Law

1:25

I agree that if it were just TJ they would have worked it out - they took JT Ginn after TJ and paid him. Rocker also had a minor shoulder operation last fall, so that's also an indicator that it wasn't just some minor elbow thing. But I think someone will bite this time around because everyone has more information than they did last year.

Mason

1:25

The A’s have gambled on high risk, high reward talents in recent years (Beck, Murray) b/c they can’t afford top end talents in the open market. By that logic, would Prielipp at #19 make sense? Thanks, Keith.

Keith Law

1:26

Haven't heard them with him at all, but yes, your logic is sound. They almost always do it with hitters, rather than pitchers. Puk is the last pitcher they took in the first round at all.

Chris

1:26

What are your thoughts on Julio Rodriguez? It looks like he’s going to be a super star, but maybe some of this is unsustainable.

Keith Law

1:27

Superstar. Stays in CF, which I did not believe would be the case out of last season. He's gotten faster, which is very unusual, and done great work to avoid becoming too big, something I did worry about with his frame.

Ben

1:28

If Dylan Crews were in this draft, around what pick would he go?

Keith Law

1:29

The corner bats are mostly in the 10-25 range. He'd be near the top of that.

1:29

Is it fair for me to think of the Montoyo firing as "you can't fire the players"? I know my fellow Blue Jays fans had some quibbles with his in-game management style, but by all accounts, he seemed very well respected and capable.

Keith Law

1:30

I thought Kaitlyn McGrath's piece was very good, but also made the team's reasons for firing Montoyo seem pretty shallow. Maybe something else will become public eventually but my take was yours - this was a "we can't fire the players" firing.

Bucco Brad

1:30

As a pirates fan when should I expect this team to compete for a playoff berth again?

Keith Law

1:30

I think you're 3+ years from that.

Nate

1:30

Keith, what are your thoughts on Dodgers SP prospect Gavin Stone. He recently catapulted to mid 50s on BAs updated top 100. Just curious if he pops up as much for you. thanks!

Keith Law

1:31

He's a great story - signed under slot from Central Arkansas in the pandemic year - and definitely a prospect but there's too much reliever risk to have him in the middle of a top 100.

Mike

1:31

How do you explain the success of the M's and O's? Legit or SSS?

Keith Law

1:32

Winning streaks are nothing but SSS. They have no predictive value.

Kyle

1:32

Sam Horn going to Mizzou?

Keith Law

1:32

I assume so. I wrote about him in the extra capsules page linked up top. He's already in Columbia for football stuff.