Klawchat, 7/21/17.
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Keith Law
2:43
I'm guessing season to season noise, but really couldn't say that for sure. It's a small enough improvement that it could be random chance but I don't know how we'd be certain that it's not.
Moltar
2:44
Big bummer about Szapucki. Since he won't be back until 2019 realistically, how does this affect his ceiling?
Keith Law
2:45
TJ doesn't affect a player's ceiling, unless he's in the 15% or so who don't get their stuff back, but it affects both his probability and his timetable. So we'll see in April or so where his stuff is, if he's on track and seems to have his fastball back, but I'd drop him in any rankings as I've always done with guys who just had TJ and aren't back yet.
Bill
2:46
Heard a commentator say that Quintana slots in as the Cubs ace ahead of Lester next year.  I realize in terms of teams with an embarrassment of riches that you can have two #1's but wanted your opinion of whether Quintana is truly ahead of Lester.
Keith Law
2:46
He is, and it's not close.
Marshall MN
2:46
Rooker got moved up to High A ball for the Twins, I know this is something that you said should be expected given his age, but nonetheless it is nice to see a rookie position player performing at such a level so quickly for the Twins.
Keith Law
2:46
He's still too old for high-A, but at least he's at a level where he's closer in age to the pitching he's facing.
Ben
2:46
What do you think of Jake Rogers? I know he was considered a great defensive catcher already, but he's really hit this year (as a 22-year old in A and A+).
Keith Law
2:47
Absolutely terrible when I saw him.
Rick
2:47
Yaisel Sierra didn't pan out as a starter but seems to be pretty good RP, could he help the Dodgers bullpen this year and into the playoffs?
Keith Law
2:47
He's off the 40-man so I don't know if they'll rush him up the ladder for this year, but I do think he has future value as a quality reliever. They were smart to sneak him off the 40 when he was struggling.
Moltar
2:48
With Szapucki down, any other names to watch among Mets arms? I love the numbers being put up by Flexen and Crismatt but have no way of knowing their value without asking nice people like you.
Keith Law
2:48
Neither has his potential. They're suddenly short on arms.
Michael
2:48
Hi Klaw - If you were Scott Proefrock would you bring up Hoskins now?  What would you do with Joseph assuming there is no market for him?  Just let him sit?
Keith Law
2:49
If I were Matt Klentak, I'd wonder what you were talking about.
Zach Otto
2:49
Good Afternoon, what do you see as Alex Verdugo's power ceiling?  Picked him up in my fantasy minor league draft two years ago due to your rankings.
Keith Law
2:50
Average power, 15-20 range. Think he's more of a well-rounded hitter with doubles power than a 30-HR type.
David
2:50
Is Jen-ho Tseng a realistic back of rotation piece in a year or 2 or just an org guy?
Keith Law
2:50
Back of the rotation possibility, bullpen likely, much more than an org guy.
Ben
2:50
As an A's fan, is it purely wishful thinking that Sonny Gray could get Kyle Tucker and Forrest Whitely in return?
Keith Law
2:50
I think that'd be insane.
Jake
2:50
Hey Keith! A buddy and I are spending a long weekend in Nashville, any restaurant recommendations?
Keith Law
2:50
Use the search box above - I have several posts on Nashville food.
Carl
2:51
How much value do you put in the Statcast stats? For instance, they have their own xBA (expected batting average) based on quality of contact, which right now says Jose Altuve should be hitting .268 instead of .353.
Keith Law
2:51
We have under three years of Statcast data. I'm not sure how we could even argue we have enough to create an x-anything stat off it.
Common Dolphin/Rehoboth Beach
2:51
Will the Orioles surprise everyone and trade Machado at the deadline, or during the offseason
Keith Law
2:51
I think they'll surprise no one and keep him, which will be a wasted opportunity for the franchise.
Justin
2:52
With Raul Mondesi finally having some minor league success (.316/.346/.544) in AAA Omaha, how would you rank him were he still able to qualify as a prospect considering he's still only 21?
Keith Law
2:52
I don't rank guys who've played that much in the majors, ever. I don't even like to hypothetically rank them, because we have information on them that we don't have on players who still have their eligibility. (I'd always prefer to see players who care close to the cutoffs graduate, rather than facing the same information gap repeatedly every winter.)
Daniel
2:53
It certainly seems ESPN has no interest in getting back to a Klaw podcast, but have you ever considering doing it independently? No sports then, but food, games, politics, etc. It'd be a time commitment for sure, but Bomani Jones' show seems to do pretty well.
Keith Law
2:53
Given the time commitment, I'd need someone else to produce & otherwise handle it.
Arin, D-town
2:53
Robert Stephenson is starting this weekend, what is he long-term? relief pitcher, 4th or 5th starter, or something else?
Keith Law
2:55
That stuff should pitch in the top few spots in a rotation, but he's basically had 35 command for a year-plus now. Between AAA and the majors, he's allowed 15 homers in 65 innings. Jim Acker is applauding his efforts.
John
2:55
Your notes on Sixto seemed to highlight how raw he is. How more unrefined is he compared to the average 18/19 year old pitching prospect?
Keith Law
2:56
I don't think he's less refined than the average prospect that age - that would be unfair to him. He's pitching in low-A at an age where many pitchers are still in high school, and most are in short-season. That he can have success there, even on this extremely restricted regimen, is in his favor. And he's not unrefined in the sense of a guy with a crude delivery or no idea where the plate is.
Chuck
2:56
Did you do a family oriented board game list? I have a 10 & 7 year old. 10 year old can handle 7 wonders but not Catan. 7 year old just plays what she can in 7 wonders no strategy. PS love the chats.
Keith Law
2:56
I haven't done that breakdown but I add complexity scores to every game I rank each November, which you can use as a proxy for this.
Schlitz
2:56
Mitchell White or Dennis Santana?
Keith Law
2:56
White.
Daniel
2:57
You mentioned in the last chat wanting to tie free agency to age rather than years of control. Would that deter teams from selecting college players in favor of high-schoolers? Or are the benefits so far down the road that it would come out in the wash?
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