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Klawchat 7/25/24
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Keith Law
1:14
Mountcastle + Norby + Basallo + 4th guy from lower in the system (Estrada?) should get you anyone on the market, no? Again, not my beat and I know I'm out of my lane here.
Howie
1:14
Hi Keith, thank you for your work and these chats. I know that you've been a bit lower on Spencer Jones than others, and this year he hasn't done much to argue against your view of him. If you are the Yankees, would you let him go for a rental (maybe one additional year) of a player like a Rengifo? He can help, but will he really move the needle? I know Jones is becoming more like a lottery ticket - but I'd hate to lose out for a mid-return....
Keith Law
1:15
No, I wouldn't give him up for a rental of a guy who may not even be worth a win for the rest of the year. Hold on to Jones and see if he can make adjustments ... I am skeptical, because he really hasn't done that before, and I don't think he has Judge's aptitude, but if you think in terms of expected value and there's a 5% chance he can improve his approach for more contact, esp. in zone, that's a superstar, and the value of 5% superstar and 95% up-and-down guy is probably more than the value of two months of Rengifo.
Mike
1:15
Hi Keith - As an M's fan, I'm a little concerned that they are going to squander this incredible group of starting pitchers they have, since they were cheap in the offseason when it came to bolstering the offense. If you were the GM, would you dip into their wealth of prospects to add 1 or 2 of the better available bats before the deadline, or stand pat and let those bats mature? Thanks!
Keith Law
1:16
I'm not sure if calling them cheap is fair, but I would definitely be willing to part with Young, Arroyo, or Ford for an impact bat.
Buck
1:16
The Brewers don't seem to trust Tyler Black anywhere in thr field. He's fast, but has no arm. Seems odd they've completely abandoned 2B & until recently the OF. He hasn't looked great at 1st. Is he a DH?
Keith Law
1:16
I think he can handle first base if he gets more reps there. He's a good athlete. He just can't really throw.
Oz
1:16
I know you don't grade drafts, but are there any classes you think really stand out?
Keith Law
1:16
Loved the Reds, Dbacks, Nats, Rockies, Red Sox.
Howie
1:17
Roderick Arias - I get it that short season disappearing has an impact here, but do you send him to AFL to help him figure it out? Is it a lack of understanding of the strike zone? How worried should we be?.
Keith Law
1:18
He's actually hit much better the last few weeks, which could be just randomness but I'd at least monitor to see if it lasts. I do expect a lot of these teenaged hitters in low A to have seasons where they struggle badly in the first half because they're overmatched, and some of them turn the corner in the second half once they've figured some things out, made adjustments, etc. Not all, but some.
TFT
1:18
While the Red Sox have 5 players in your top 60, they are all position players. Are there any Sox pitchers close to making your top lists?
Keith Law
1:20
No ... Perales was off to a great start but he blew out, and it's a tough delivery to repeat. Wikelman's a likely reliever. I liked the Tolle selection but he probably isn't a top 100 type right now.
James
1:21
Rockies CF Brenton Doyle just a guy? Seems to be great at defense and the bat is OK? Haven’t looked at the box scores or advanced metrics on him but been impressed just watching
Keith Law
1:21
Elite defender, the bat is just OK but he's benefited greatly from his environment. More than 'just a guy' as long as he's a Rockie.
As in, I don't think the bat holds up if he's elsewhere.
Howie
1:21
Kamala has a big choice coming up. I recognize that picking a VP from a swing state is important. And people like Governors - so Shapiro has my interest a bit. But Mark Kelly has so many positives from my perspective. He has first hand knowledge (and is reasonable) on the border, swing state, combat pilot, first hand understanding of the importance of gun control. Seems like a slam dunk candidate. What do you think?
Keith Law
1:22
I agree. Kelly is #1 on my top 60 VP prospects ranking.
James
1:22
Thoughts on inflation in America?
Keith Law
1:23
It's come down substantially. It'll probably remain around where it is as long as the economy keeps growing at this rate - inflation is almost inevitable in an expanding economy. What we lack is comparable wage growth to balance it out, and that's a complex problem to fix, although the weakness of our labor laws is one factor.
Zihuatanejo
1:23
Who among the Dodgers' young starters is most likely to be included in a deadline trade package?  Who (if anyone) should be considered safe from a trade?
Keith Law
1:23
Don't they need all/most of those guys, now and next year? I'm not sure I'd rush to trade any of them unless it's for a multi-year starter candidate.
James
1:24
If you had to choose a coffee creamer flavor what flavor choosing?
Keith Law
1:24
I don't use them, but I do think vanilla + coffee is a great flavor combination.
Tom
1:24
Keith, thank you for the chat. As a Mets fan, I am curious if Clifford would be "close" to a top 50 ranking, perhaps more like a 50-100th slot? Also, following Sproat, who do you view as their next best Pitching prospect? Big fan of your stuff on The Athletic.
Keith Law
1:26
Clifford's a no. Plus-plus power, minus hit. Their next best pitching prospect is Jonah Tong. (Also, Jesus Christ what the hell is happening in Syracuse?)
Jack Z
1:26
Keith - the Braves don’t have any top 60 prospects currently and are starting to reach a point where position player depth could become an issue. Do you see any players in the system with future top 50 ceilings? Do you like their draft this year?
Keith Law
1:27
I am not a fan of leaning on HS pitching like that, but Caminiti was the best HS arm in the class and could end up a top 20 guy in a couple of years.
Chris
1:27
How far off was farmelo from your top 60? Would he be top 100 or does his swing and injury make it to be determined for you?
Keith Law
1:27
It's all injury. He was on my top 50 in May, but ACL tears suck and speed/defense is a big part of his game.
That's one of the more upsetting injuries of the year.
Jibraun
1:27
I’ve seen a lot about Wetherholt’s bat, but not much about his glove. How do you project his defense? And which position do you think he ultimately settled at?
Keith Law
1:27
2B for me. Good hands, limited range at SS.
Ken
1:27
I guess the home run derby didn't ruin Bobby Witt Jr. swing
Keith Law
1:28
Can we just kill that narrative? Throw it on the pile with the Verducci effect.
addoeh
1:28
With more NIL and scholarships coming to college baseball, at least for the SEC and maybe one or two other conferences, and the potential for for MLB to get rid of another level of the minors, how much is the calculus of the decision of signing vs college changing for HS seniors?  It seems MLB wants to outsource the cost of development to college baseball more and more.
Keith Law
1:28
I think it's shifting substantially. I believe JJ Cooper tweeted that this was the lowest % of HS players to go in the top ten rounds? I know I noted it was the most college-heavy first round ever.
Zihuatanejo
1:28
Just for fun, which of your top prospects would make the best potential running mate for Harris?
Keith Law
1:29
Oh, Max Clark, hands down. He'd crush it. I don't know his political views - this is just on personality.
Moke Rizzo
1:29
Thomas and Finnegan for George Klassen and a lotto ticket or two? Feels about right.
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