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Klawchat 8/1/18
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Keith Law
1:41
His was the best apology yet from any of these players.
Nick Howard
1:41
What is my deal exactly?  am I a non prospect, or still a chance?
Keith Law
1:42
Got the yips, not a prospect any more.
Steve
1:42
Could you explain why the international money that the O's received as part of the Gausman trade was not part of your analysis? And what is T25 in regards to your Schoop tweet yesterday?
Keith Law
1:42
They didn't receive international money; they received slots, described above. And that's all that is - a slot, the right to spend money, not an actual player. How would you like me to evaluate that?
1:43
If you don't know what T25 is, you might be pronouncing Schoop's name incorrectly.
Chan
1:43
The Marlins decided to hold onto their three relievers who had trade value. Are you surprised? Should they have lowered their demand to retrieve at least something?
Keith Law
1:43
Unless the market was so saturated with similar relievers that they got garbage offers? I thought Yates would be next out of San Diego, but I don't think they got any decent offers.
The Boxes Are Checked
1:43
Gut feeling- do Jimenez and/or Kopech debut in MLB this season?
Keith Law
1:44
Kopech in particular needs to come up this season. Let him face major league hitters and see if they force him to throw more strikes. He's just going to blow AAA guys away the longer he's down there.
Dave
1:44
Does the player to be named later in the PIT-TB deal most likely mean he was a 2018 draft pick and not been w/ PIT long enough to be traded yet?
Keith Law
1:44
Again, that's prohibited.
Kevin
1:44
Apparently Tampa wouldn't trade Archer to San Diego unless they got Paddack or Patiño. Is it safe to say Patiño has passed up guys like Baez and Quantrill in the Padres system?  What's Patiño's ceiling?
Keith Law
1:46
Patiño has not passed Baez or Morejon or Lawson. He's still got a lot of reliever risk too. Quantrill has regressed since that first summer.
Brian
1:46
It was great to meet you in Acton on Saturday. Thanks for coming out and answering questions. You discussed gausman and the orioles messing with his mound placement/delivery. Do you think ATL has the specific people in place to help gausman or is it more of any team has a better chance to help him than where he's coming from?
Keith Law
1:46
Yes, I've thought Gausman would be a perfect change of scenery candidate for a while. Even getting to a new coaching staff without the baggage he's had might help.
Dr. Bob
1:47
If I understand the rules correctly, the Reds will not get a compensating pick for Harvey when he leaves at the end of the season (he is a FA, right?). If that's true, why in the world do they not trade him? They sent players to NY to get him so that he can help them finish this season not as far in fifth place as they otherwise might have been?
Keith Law
1:47
Right. I don't understand not trading him.
SeanE
1:47
Couldn't the Reds just move Harvey in August?  His velo has ticked up significantly recently.  If he has a few dominant starts could he maybe fetch more?
Keith Law
1:47
He can be claimed on waivers and then the Reds have no leverage in negotiations.
Mat
1:47
If you had to rank Edmonds, A. Jones, Lofton and Bernie Williams in a pecking order for the Veterans Committee (even though Andruw isn't on it...yet), how would you rank.
Keith Law
1:48
Edmonds, Andruw, Lofton, Bernie, in that order. Edmonds would have made my ballot had I been a voter at the time.
Tony! Toni! Toné!
1:48
Just following up on my Swaggerty/PTBNL question. I know you technically can't trade players in his situation, but isn't that what a PTBNL is often used for? For involving guys in deals who can't be officially traded yet.
Keith Law
1:48
You literally cannot trade a drafted player, even as a PTBNL, until after the World Series in his draft year. It's colloquially called the Trea Turner rule.
John
1:49
So you’re saying you’d rather have Eloy in the majors for the rest of this season and next April instead of having him for the 2025 season? Why?
Keith Law
1:50
2025? Where will you be then? What kind of team will the White Sox be at that point? Who's the GM? The owner? Meanwhile, if you have a player whose development appears to require a promotion to the majors, you're merely wasting time if you leave that guy in the minors. (I feel more strongly this way with pitchers, since projecting any pitcher to stay healthy for seven years is like playing roulette with a crooked croupier.)
Matt
1:51
Without looking at your book lists, have you read the Three Body Problem trilogy? I've never gotten into sci-fi, but the books are incredible, especially the scale of subject matter that it tackles and the big-picture issues it tackles. If you have read these, do you have any similar recommendations?
Keith Law
1:51
The first one. Very good, despite the weird unfolding-of-the-proton ending. But it didn't compel me to continue either.
Matt
1:51
Did you read that article about hackers were able to hack voting booths in less than 2 hours? This seems...problematic.
Keith Law
1:52
I did. It is. Especially since there's a foreign government that has a demonstrated interest in messing with our elections, and our own Administration thinks it's just so darn cute.
Rich
1:52
Even though their talent is awful on the ML team, would you hang on to Andy Green, or should the Padres look for someone else to mentor the youth that will be coming up?
Keith Law
1:52
I like Green. He's not part of the problem and I think when the roster improves and gets younger he'll be part of the solution.
Anthony
1:54
Re. Keller: would you ever be comfortable projecting a fastball-curveball guy as a starter (even if changeup never comes) because curves tend to be platoon-neutral?
Keith Law
1:55
Fastball-breaking ball guys do not tend to be platoon-neutral.
JR
1:55
Why do teams with good records/teams that exceed expectations always tend to have good chemistry (per the media), while teams that disappoint/don't play up to talent level have bad chemistry (also per the media)?
Keith Law
1:55
Because cognitive biases are everywhere.
Rex
1:55
Some people consistently beat the market. Just because you can’t do something doesn’t mean other people can’t.
Keith Law
1:55
The people who 'beat the market' in the last N years almost never beat the market again in the next N years. Maybe never.
Donald
1:56
Hey Keith, thanks for doing these chats. Last week, you said "xwOBA doesn't work", I'm not trying to argue it does and you are wrong, but I was just curious if you could elaborate on that a little more and explain why it doesn't work.
Keith Law
1:56
I can't find the link but someone - Russell Carleton, I think - showed that they don't actually predict future wOBA (or whatever the stat is in the x-stat).
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