JotCast | Klawchat 8/5/21

Klawchat 8/5/21

Keith Law

1:02

I'm getting older too. Klawchat.

Kevin

1:02

Crossing my fingers that whenever they sign a new CBA, they allow trades of draft picks. Are you in favor of this as well?

Keith Law

1:03

I wrote a column for ESPN in either 2006 or 2007 arguing that it was in all parties' best interests to allow trading of draft picks. My view hasn't changed. Unfortunately neither side has a strong incentive to push for this in the CBA negotiations.

davealden53

1:03

I find referring to the extra-inning gimmicks as "phantom runners" to be confusing imprecise. Those are real flesh-and-blood players on second base, unlike the imaginary runners of backyard wiffle-ball games. What's "phantom" is how the players reached second base. I propose retiring "phantom runners" in favor of "phantom doubles". But whatever we call it, I hope it goes away.

Keith Law

1:03

Yeah, call it whatever you want, it's gimmickry of the worst sort.

Frank

1:03

The biggest issue to me with the whole Rocker situation is he now has to sit out another year. If the team that drafts a player doesnt want to sign him for medical reasons, then he should be free to go sign with whomever he wishes. Seems incredibly unfair to the player to force him to delay his professional career by an entire year.

Keith Law

1:06

Hold on - that's not accurate. He had the choice to submit his MRI to MLB, and thus to all teams before the draft. Had he done so, and any team drafting him then declined to make him an offer of at least 40% of slot, he would be a free agent. He declined to submit the MRI, and this is the consequence of that action. This mechanism of submitting MRIs predraft is not perfect but it better protects player and team than the old system. If a player chooses not to use that system, he must accept the consequences of that choice. The draft itself is a labor-exploiting farce, but this mechanism is one of the few aspects of it that does protect the player's rights.

What if some other team saw Rocker's MRI and disagreed with the Mets' doctors? Then he would have gone somewhere fairly high and gotten paid accordingly - maybe not what the Mets offered, but more than the $0 he has now. And if all teams saw the MRI and said "oh hell no," he's no worse off than he is today anyway.

Sam

1:07

Were you surprised at how much of a discount Henry Davis signed for? With no clear cut #1 did the Pirates put out a number to 3-4 guys and he was the one who said yes?

Keith Law

1:07

Not surprised, not in this draft class without a clear-cut #1.

Marlin Guy

1:08

Hi Keith! What's your evaluation of Jazz Chisholm at this point? Thanks!

Keith Law

1:08

No change. I still think he's got a real chance to be a star.

Tom

1:08

Luis Garcia of the Nats looked great in AAA and even hit 2 homers last night. I know you've never been particularly bullish, but is there a chance he has really turned a corner offensively at just 21.

Keith Law

1:09

Unless there's been some real change in his swing that I don't know about, no, not really. I'm not a huge believer in players who spend a good amount of time in the majors and then go back down and rake in triple-A, facing far worse pitching than they did in the majors. Imagine if a player was promoted to double A, struggled badly, then was returned to high- or even low-A and mashed. You'd look askance at that performance too.

Tom

1:09

this may be more of a nate silver question, but do you think theres data to suggest that the anti-vaxxers, most of whom are GOP, that are passing away from COVID, are going to hurt future election results for GOP?

Keith Law

1:10

I'm sorry, you stole that take from Nate, although I'm glad it's getting some visibility.

1:10

What did you think of Luis Gil's MLB debut?

Keith Law

1:10

Great fastball, not enough of anything else.

Appa Yip Yip

1:10

What's up with Kevin Smith (of the Blue Jays, not Silent Bob)?

Keith Law

1:10

Now that is a swing change guy. Different player than he was pre-COVID (or at Maryland, for that matter). He's gone from a 3 (nothing) to a 5 (everyday player).

Tom

1:12

Other than a not so fast fastball, gotta like what we see from braxton garrett. Is there no. 2 upside here?

Keith Law

1:13

No, there's not. He's been pretty lucky so far, and the stuff just hasn't come all the way back post-surgery. I would love to be wrong - he pitched one of the best games I've ever seen from a HS pitcher - but even with another mph on his fastball his arsenal is still light.

Fitzy

1:13

Is Austin Martin still a top 100 prospect in your view? I believe a lot of my fellow Jays fans were too hung up on his pre-season ranking and believe we got absolutely fleeced for Berrios.

Keith Law

1:13

He was on the top 50 linked at the top of this post.

1:13

JR Richard passed away last night. Thoughts... If he hadn't had that stroke was he on a HOF trajectory?

Keith Law

1:14

Died of COVID-19. Get your vaccine, folks. And yes, I think he was, if he held up - he was throwing exceptionally hard for his era and he might have had the sort of arm problems we saw often at the time.

Jonesy

1:14

Should the Jays be doing everything in their power to extend Semien and Ray right now?

Keith Law

1:14

No. It all comes down to cost.

Dan

1:15

Granted it's a selected sample size but the Tigers look like a good(!) team since April ended. How much should be attributed to finally having a competent manager as well as positive contributions from Baddoo etc?

Keith Law

1:15

I wouldn't undersell the switch to a competent manager. Also some of the rebuild is starting to hit the majors now.

Jeff

1:16

After the Cubs' firesale, where you would now rank the Cubs' farm system?

Keith Law

1:16

Eyeballing it, around the median. Huge improvement over preseason.

Justin

1:16

Would you rather have Henry Davis+Lonnie White, or Leiter+Some College Senior for the identical $7.9 mil of bonus pool?

Keith Law

1:16

Davis and White, although I think Davis + Chandler is the better 1-2 combo. Hitters over pitchers, for one thing, and Davis > Leiter anyway.

OJ1977

1:16

Seems like Austin Martin's prospect standing has really dropped, at least in the eyes of Jays management...has his ceiling dropped given his lack of a defensive position and absence of power?

Keith Law

1:16

I wrote that. All of it.

Mike

1:17

can brett baty stick at 3B long-term? 30 hr potential??

Keith Law

1:17

I think he has a real chance to stay at 3b, maybe 50/50, up from maybe 10-20% odds back in HS.

Jake

1:17

Thanks for the chat, Keith! In your estimation has Jake Eder shown enough to be a back end top 100 guy? If so, was he close to your updated top 50?