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Klawchat 8/5/21
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Dark Knight
1:17
Riley Greene performing well at AA as a 20 yr old is impressive.  Does he have enough power to hit 20+ hrs in the majors?
Keith Law
1:17
I would put the o/u at 25. He's real. I think I'm seeing him tonight.
Steve Cohen
1:18
What do I do now?  The system seems pretty top heavy with high A and AA players.  The failure to get any trades done is a consequence of the top heavy system - the list of desirable prospects is short.  Missing on Kumar I assume is a huge mistake (so much for the opposite of lolMets). What does this mean for the system and the future?
Keith Law
1:18
see above on Rocker. It is just wrong to peg this as a Mets error when nobody but the team and Rocker's group know what was in the medicals. They also swapped a lot of talent in previous deals. I still think they're well positioned to continue contending into the next several years.
Tom
1:18
Kyle Stowers is putting up pretty big numbers in AA (although in only 161 PA).  Any hope for him?
Keith Law
1:19
Fourth OF. Seen him a bunch.
Andrew
1:19
How would you grade the O's rebuild to date. When is it fair to start building expectations for the major league club?
Keith Law
1:19
It's fair, not great, hurt by the fact that the veterans were all traded (generally for not enough return) before the new regime came in; the awful luck with Kjerstad; and a continued lack of any production from the international side.
Ira
1:19
How can the Mets ever build up a farm system when they purposely draft under slot value for the entire draft for the purpose of signing a top pick, and then not sign that pick? Seems to me if many teams were afraid of Rocker's physical status and he dropped, then the Mets should have maybe picked a different player.
Keith Law
1:20
Revisionist history. Don't know any teams that were "afraid of Rocker's physical status." However, I would argue the Mets should have taken Will Taylor or another high-bonus HS kid in the 11th round and handed him the money they didn't give Rocker.
Jay
1:20
Of the things Theo Epstein has discussed for improving the game (moving the mound, limits on shifts, pitch clocks, limiting # of pitchers on the roster) do you like any of them and which do you think can have the biggest positive impact?
Keith Law
1:21
Pitch clocks are a mixed bag - they do move the game along in an appreciable way, but may increase pitcher injuries. I like limiting the number of pitchers on the roster to try to discourage too many mid-inning pitching changes. But if you really want to speed the game up, you need shorter commercial breaks, and nobody wants to touch that.
Newt
1:21
If Dermis Garcia ever got a season with 600 PAs in the majors, would he be the inaugural member of the 30 HR, 350K Club?
Keith Law
1:21
He has 40 homer power and would probably strike out 50% of the time, enough that he'd never sniff 30 or even 20 homers.
Sean
1:21
Hi Keith, anything in Detmers start that gave you pause on his upside?  Curve looked great but fastball didn’t seem to get many misses, even holding the mid 90s velo.  Maybe just command jitters in his first start?
Keith Law
1:22
I don't like judging any pitcher on his first major league start.
Vin
1:22
Hi Keith. Thanks for these chats. How do you evaluate the job Kapler has done with the Giants? Are there specific things he’s doing differently now than when he was in Philly?
Keith Law
1:22
Entire organizational approach to hitting has changed under him. I think he's the manager of the year. That club has no business being this good.
Dallas
1:22
There is a Voltaggio brother's cooking competition on Discovery+ that's fantastic. Nicky Lopez is past 2.0 WAR on both BR and FG and could finish around 3.0 WAR. If this is who he is, is that a starting 2B going forward or still more of a very quality utility player (as a lot of that WAR is based on SS defense). Thanks.
Keith Law
1:22
I think he's an everyday guy.
Vin
1:23
Could Luis Matos make a leap into the top 100 next season?
Keith Law
1:23
Yes. I think he was my Giants sleeper prospect this year or maybe last year before the shutdown.
Guest
1:23
I thought the Mets had to offer Rocker 40% of the slot to get the pick last year? Did that rule change?
Keith Law
1:23
No, the rule is the same, but only applies if the player complies with the MRI program.
Guest
1:23
What do you think the PA should be aiming for in the next CBA? Reduced service time requirement to FA? Arb eligible earlier?
Keith Law
1:24
I mean, yes, all of the above. distributing more money to players with less than 6 years service time should be a goal - those are the players whose salaries are artificially suppressed by the current system.
Luke
1:24
Anecdotally, 80-grade tools seem more commonly placed on players for arm strength, speed, raw power. Less common for hit and glove. The latter are more difficult to measure and thus harder to have confidence in. But given 20-80 is based on a distribution, would we expect the same number of 80s league-wide for each tool?
Keith Law
1:24
20-80 is not based on a distribution. That story has been retconned on to the scale.
Justin
1:25
Is Adam Frazier a pretty good comparison for Tucupita Marcano?  Maybe Marcano needs to bulk up a little bit to make that possible?
Keith Law
1:25
I hate comps but I don't hate that one.
Justin
1:25
Do you think Hoy Park can be a 1.5 WAR type SS and/or Super Util?
Keith Law
1:25
No. Way under that one.
Tony
1:25
This might require a tinfoil hat on my end, but is there a chance that the Orioles are keeping Rutschman in Double A for the whole year, so they have a ready-made excuse for keeping him down next year, too? Given where we are in the calendar, it feels unlikely they'd promote him for three weeks
Keith Law
1:25
TFH. I don't believe this for a second. I do wonder if they're keeping him in Bowie because it's the nearby affiliate and they've always tried to keep Bowie competitive.
Shaun
1:25
How have you seen Torkelson progress this year,'? Expected? Over expectations?
Keith Law
1:25
Looked very good at the Futures Game. Should see him tonight too.
Steve
1:26
Is a Sox fan and liked Madrigal, though not devastated to see him gone. As a scout, what makes you so certain that power can't develop like it did with Jose Altuve or other similar bodied players? Is he just an outlier and it's unfair to compare? What are the metrics that show potential power with maturation?
Keith Law
1:27
He doesn't look anything at all like Altuve. Really - just look at their builds and frames. They're both short. I'm 5'6", Altuve is 5'5" if that, but I couldn't possibly be as muscular as Altuve was, even if you put me on a weight training program (and I wasn't 48, etc., etc.). You need strength, including real hand and forearm strength, to hit for power, or even just to hit with any authority.
Ryan
1:27
Who do you think has higher upside between Jordan Lawlar and Corbin Carroll? As a Dbacks fan, I can't remember the last time I was this excited for the future.
Keith Law
1:27
Carroll.
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