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Klawchat 9/10/20
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Keith Law
1:01
In the shuffling madness ... Klawchat.
Ben (MN)
1:01
How useful is this year's data for evaluators like yourself? For example, Austin Meadows had an early case of covid and has been awful. Is that evidence that he was never as good as his numbers from last year, or can we just not tell at this point due to the small sample and the unknown impact of covid, lack of reps, etc.? For someone like Javy Baez, has his approach finally caught up with him and exposed him as a solid but not great player, or is it just a small sample and he may be a superstar again next year? Do you have any idea how to gauge this season for situations like this, where the data doesn't confirm what we thought about the player before the year?
Keith Law
1:03
This entire season is a small, skewed sample. Not only is 60 games less than half a regular season, but schedules are far less balanced than they usually are, and we're clearly working with less major-league caliber pitching than usual. If a player continues what he showed us in 2019, then great, it's probably further evidence in that direction. If a player is having an outlier season in 2020, though, I'm not going to draw any conclusions either way.
Sedona
1:06
Gut feeling...Luciano take the Vlad/Soto early path to MLB?  If not, who?
Keith Law
1:06
No. Don't think he has their idea of the strike zone.
2020 Voter
1:08
I read nearly all of your chats and in each one this year there's a comment from someone that essentially says "how could anyone vote for Trump?" and I'd like to share my perspective.  Biden has proposed revisions to 401Ks that replaces the current taxable income reduction with flat credits.  This would greatly increase my taxes per year -- despiate pledges to not raise taxes on households making <400K -- and leaves our family with little extra.  Trump is a horrible embarassment, but that is a huge financial hit.  Democrats will likely control Congress, so the chances of this passing are high.  You'll probably call this selfish, but I'm not especially political and I have young kids.
Keith Law
1:10
Yeah, that's pretty selfish - and also extremely narrow. If the economy is worse off as a whole, what does that mean for your income, or the long-term value of your 401K? Trade wars and tariffs are terrible for the economy. So is a pandemic without a sufficient government response. Also, I'd wager a good amount of money that you're a straight, white man, whose status isn't particularly threatened by a Trump administration that is rolling back anti-discrimination protections for anybody who isn't that.
Todd Boss
1:10
Given the 29-9 beatdown last night, would you support a little-league style "slaughter rule" in baseball games at some point?  We're already experimenting with "weirder" rules (extra innings runner, 7-inning double headers, no-pitch IBB) that have existed in non-MLB leagues for a time ... why not have a rolling slaughter rule; game's over if losing by 10 or more runs 7th inning or later?
Keith Law
1:10
This year I would have.
Jason
1:10
Should Bob Woodward have released those taped conversations much earlier, is criticism of him fair?
Keith Law
1:10
Yes.
Adam
1:10
I admit to being very confused that The Burnt Orange Heresy wasn't a documentary on the current administration.
Keith Law
1:10
It's a great title for a good novel (I read it, it's solid) and a bad film.
Jason
1:10
Is corbin burnes a GUY?
Keith Law
1:10
I think so. I was a year early on his breakout, as usual.
Matt
1:12
Do you believe in Austin Nola being a 120 wRC+ type bat in next couple of years or no?
Keith Law
1:12
I'd bet the under on that.
Ryan
1:12
Hey Keith love your work. What do you think an extension for Tatis looks like. Would 8 250 get it close. He could get another bite of the apple at age 29.
Keith Law
1:15
With four years of team control now, one of them essentially at the minimum salary, you're still giving him $40 million or more for his free agent years. He should definitely take that offer.
Jon
1:16
Don't look now but Michael Conforto is turning into a superstar.  (In my best John Malkovich voice - "Pay that man his money")
Keith Law
1:17
Again, I don't want to read much into the short season, but the OBP has always been there, and this is power he's shown before when healthy. Funny how the Cubs fans who were mad I ranked him over Schwarber have gone silent.
Chuck
1:18
Any idea why Davidson or Muller don’t get at least a spot start for Atlanta?
Keith Law
1:18
I don't know how prepared they are for that ... we don't know how much they've pitched, or if they've dealt with any minor injuries, anything like that. On the face of it I'd assume Davidson was in line, but I have no inside info here.
Mac
1:20
Have you heard how the fall league will be structured?
Keith Law
1:20
Nothing. Many ideas, no specifics.
Ken
1:20
Comparing the two who had more upside as a starter at age 22 for the yanks severing or Garcia?  Why?
Keith Law
1:21
Severino had the better arm, but I always had concerns about his delivery that unfortunately came to pass. Garcia has his own concerns but I think he's a bit more likely to hold up as a starter.
Michael
1:21
Yesterday more than 1,200 Americans died. In Spain, Germany, Canada, Japan, Italy and the UK they lost a combined 75 even though they have 100 million more people than us.  #AmericanExceptionialism
Keith Law
1:22
Yeah, but Biden might raise my taxes a tiny bit.
Deke
1:22
Anything dumber (non-actually-important department) this year than Hosmer's bunt and the aftermath?
Keith Law
1:23
Bunting with two strikes, even against the shift, is such a bad idea ... if you are that unlikely to get a hit in that situation, you shouldn't be in the lineup.
Jake
1:23
Keith—I’m a first time voter (just turned 18). I’m extremely progressive. As such, I obviously am not voting for trump. But I don’t know if i can betray my heart and vote joe. He has a brutal history, and won’t bring about meaningful change. How do i vote?
Keith Law
1:25
You vote for Biden. You have two choices here that matter. One might not bring about meaningful change from our history, but he will bring about meaningful change from the last four years. The other will get to keep appointing conservative judges, gutting environmental laws, killing LGBTQ+ protections, muzzling scientists, and mishandling crises. This isn't hard. And it's not only about you.
BirdlandBro
1:25
Hey Keith, your thoughts on the Orioles?  Do you see real positive strides being made and potentially an accelerated rebuild?  Or just small sample size?
Keith Law
1:25
Just a small sample size.
Bryan (Montclair)
1:26
What do you think the impact will be on pitchers in 2021 based on this truncated season? Anecdotally, I would think that starters will have a longer time getting stretched out/pitching through a long 2021 season, at the very least. Not to mention an uptick in injuries.
Keith Law
1:26
I share your concern - and I think it's the main reason we will see some sort of fall league, so minor leaguers who didn't see the majors aren't left with virtually no innings this year.
Cory
1:27
What's the deal with Mize's lack of command; wasn't that supposed to be his biggest strength? Cause for concern?
Keith Law
1:28
Again, tiny samples.
Jordan
1:28
Do you see the Padres talent ever stacking up enough to overtake the dodgers for a division title? Or does LAs combination of cash and organizational acumen make SD a groomsmen for the next decade?
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