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Klawchat 9/10/20
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Mike Trout
1:42
Another Mets SSS but gosh Dom Smith. I know you were always high on him - how good can he be?
Keith Law
1:44
He started this last year in limited time, so I'm more inclined to believe it - but I've also always been a believer. Funny how much grief he got after 1 HR in his first season in full-season ball. Since the start of 2019, he's played 125 games and hit 18 homers with a .301/.371/.572 line, and he's hitting lefties too. That'll play.
OZ
1:45
For the guy who is going to vote Trump because of Biden's 401K plan:  the 401K tax deduction is highly regressive, it gives a larger tax break to those with higher incomes (higher tax brackets) while providing a limited benefit to low and middle class savers.  Moving to a flat credit will provide a larger break and more incentive for middle class families.  If your taxes are raised by this plan its because you have a large income and can afford it.  However its unlikely to make much of a difference since Roth IRAs are taxed differently than 401Ks so savers can easily switch to contributing to a Roth IRA instead.
Keith Law
1:46
Well, there you go. I have voted for years in direct opposition to my own interests when it comes to tax rates, because 1) there is no reason on earth I need a tax break and 2) I am at least vaguely aware that there are other people on this planet besides me.
John
1:46
Do you think Derek fisher will have a teoscar style breakout? They share some (possibly superficial) similarities. Also, do you believe in teoscar’s breakout?
Keith Law
1:49
Fisher's really interesting because his tools - plus power, 70 run - have long outstripped his production, and there hasn't been a great reason why. It's been true in the field and at the plate since he was at UVA. His 34 PA this year don't tell us anything at all, but he'd at least be someone to watch if you are looking on the Jays roster for a player with the physical tools to be the sort of found money that Teoscar has been.
Kevin
1:49
Is trent grisham a center fielder now? A lot of people felt he couldn't succeed there before this season.
Keith Law
1:49
I'd be shocked if he was able to play above-average defense in CF for a whole year.
Nolan
1:49
have any of these “I’m a leftist how could I possibly vote for Biden?” people ever heard of the Supreme Court? Noticed how many times RBG has been hospitalized recently?
Keith Law
1:50
The Supreme Court is where they play tennis at their local country clubs.
Ron
1:51
What would you say to disaffected leftists who see both Biden and Trump as horrendous candidates whose parties both actively stifle progressive policies? How long do we have to keep voting for the lesser of two-evils while deluding ourselves that next election will be different?
Keith Law
1:52
See all the answers above, and maybe consider the privilege in your self-definition as a "disaffected leftist" instead of someone whose livelihood or even existence is threatened by four more years of this shit.
Sedona
1:52
Is Domingo German a lock for the rotation next year?  Tanaka, Paxton, Happ should be FA's.  Do you think Schmidt, Devei and Severino say otherwise?
Keith Law
1:52
I don't think German or Severino are rotation locks for 2021.
Steven
1:52
I would say Bart's OBP would have to be .340
Keith Law
1:53
If he does that, with his power and defense, he's a star. But I'm not sure he gets there unless he continues to be a HBP magnet.
Dave
1:53
Whether or not it's actually indicative, it's clearly a small (and unreliable) sample size. That being said, does Bobby Dalbec have the  potential to be a big league regular?
Keith Law
1:53
I think he has a fringe regular ceiling but will likely be a good bench player.
Chamaco
1:54
The Athletic is running a special - $1 a month for 6 months.  Will that allow me to read everything you have written since starting there?
Keith Law
1:54
Yes. I don't think it's limited in any way.
Jason
1:54
Do you think josh lindblom could be good in relief? he clearly isnt cut for starting in MLB
Keith Law
1:55
Yes.
Luis Robert
1:55
Luis Robert is walking almost twice as often as he did in AAA. Is this SSS noise, or a positive step?
Keith Law
1:55
Everything. In. 2020. Is. A. Small. Sample.
If this were a regular season we wouldn't even be at Memorial Day.
Chamaco
1:55
Any good reason why scouts can’t attend MLB games or alt. sites? Seems like there is enough room to socially distance even with players in the stands.
Keith Law
1:56
Certain owners didn't want to spend the money to send scouts out to games, so they pushed for MLB to just ban them all.
Mike
1:56
Klaw, if Steve Cohen hired you to run the Mets, what are the top things you would tell him that needs to be done? Would you even have interest in a front office position?
Keith Law
1:58
I would actually leave a lot of people in place. They've drafted really well, and you're seeing more of that this year and last year with Smith's emergence, Conforto, Alonso, and perhaps Peterson (he should be better than this, the BB% is surprising). Their development on the pitching side has improved. Their two biggest problems have been injuries and major-league transactions.
Nelson
1:58
It’s a small sample obviously, but Braves fans have been cautiously optimistic about Austin Riley’s approach at the plate improving. Have you seen much of him this year? Quality of ABs seems vastly improved to my eyes, especially on the last month.
Keith Law
1:58
Tiny sample. And they've faced a lot of bad pitching in that span.
Tim KC
1:59
Hey Keith...I am afraid that all the rule changes for this experimental year is going convince Manfred to negotiate to keep changes and push for further (bad) changes next CBA negotiations (and greater possibility of strike/lock out).  (Only pro-universal DH.). Can you talk me off the ledge or is it legit concerns?
Keith Law
1:59
The union has to agree to all of it. Universal DH is a lock. Don't see the union agreeing to many other things like 7-inning games, which would reduce the need for so many relievers.
Appa Yip Yip
2:01
Libertarianism in America also has to be put into the context of having one political party that does everything it can to make the state inept. Freedom from government interference makes a lot more sense when your government is constantly being kneecapped by the people responsible for running it.
Keith Law
2:02
Not unreasonable. Although I think there's such a strong cultural "don't tell me what to do" mentality here that overruns any sense of "I should care about others" that you might expect from a nation that so often likes to refer to itself as a Christian one.
Maddy
2:02
Looking at 2021 Prospect Rankings, how are you going to go about not getting a traditional season-long look at prospects? How many changes are we realistically going to see?
Keith Law
2:02
We'll have a lot of graduations, the addition of this year's draft, and possibly some stuff from fall baseball. That'll make for fewer changes than in a normal year, and I'm assuming my team by team writeups will be shorter as a result of guys not playing, but there will at least be sufficient changes to make the top 100 pretty fresh.
Brent
2:03
Dylan Cease has been productive getting guys out without a high K-rate. Do you see that continuing or will he have to miss more bats to continue the success?
Keith Law
2:03
I think he needs a higher K rate, but I also think his K rate will improve.
Secondary stuff has shown at least flashes of being good enough to miss more bats.
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