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Klawchat 9/19/19
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Keith Law
1:03
The wind will carry us. Klawchat.
Dana
1:03
I'm curious what you thought of Brett Gardner as a prospect. Probably didn't think he'd be a consistent 15-25 homer guy?
Keith Law
1:04
I think (hope) he was on one of the earliest versions of the "guys I got wrong" column. He had no power in college and his swing wasn't geared for it at all. He really remade himself into someone who had average power and could take particular advantage of Yankee Stadium's RF fence. That plus CF level defense in LF made him kind of a star, if not necessarily widely known as one.
Marani
1:04
So, who wins AL MVP now?
Keith Law
1:04
Trout.
Moe Mentum
1:04
Have you seen any evolution in how Gold Gloves are awarded in recent years, or is it still pretty much a joke? Do you think these awards will ever improve their perception among the Smart Baseball generation?
Keith Law
1:04
I know the process is better than it used to be but I still do not take them seriously.
TP
1:04
You have mentioned Austin as a potential MLB expansion city.  While there would be a lot of interest down here, there has also been a lot of backlash to using public land for the new, privately financed MLS stadium.  Politically, Austin is similar to Portland, OR, and it is unlikely that there would be political support for a publicly funded stadium within the city limits.  Austin has a long history of opposing such ideas (which is one reason the Express play in Round Rock).  San Antonio might be more realistic if MLB wants a third team in Texas.
Keith Law
1:05
I would think any stadium location would be chosen to take advantage of both metro areas, which are only about 80 miles apart and could make a mammoth media market - especially with just one major league sports team (the Spurs) between them. Austin has somewhat better demographics, though.
BigDaddeh
1:05
Do different teams treat the AFL different or is it just a year by year thing? The Yankees seemed to really punt on this year's attendees
Keith Law
1:06
Some teams always send org guys; some send real prospects. It's a philosophical thing. I would always send guys who were either real prospects or 40-man bubble guys.
Moe Mentum
1:06
Fill in the blank for yourself (past or present) : I’m likely interested in any movie that has _______ acting in (or producing or directing) it.
Keith Law
1:06
I've seen about 20 Hitchcock movies and maybe 15 Cary Grant movies. I'll also watch anything Billy Wilder did.
AJ
1:07
Who plays (or should play) the middle infield positions for the Reds in 2020? VanMeter just doesn't look like a regular at this point, nor does Peraza.
Keith Law
1:07
I'd return Senzel to 2b and try to find a better CF option.
Nate
1:07
Keith, when trying to evaluate pitchers, the difference between fWAR and bWAR is confusing.  Reynaldo Lopez, for instance, has been worth 2.3 fWAR (this year and last) while only being worth 0.6 bWAR.  How would you best look at these two numbers in trying to evaluate whether he should be used as a back-end starter or potentially high leverage reliever moving forward?
Keith Law
1:08
Part of that difference is fWAR's assumption that his LOB% is going to regress to league-average levels. Given how homer-prone he is, and the fact that he wasn't appreciably worse from the stretch this year (he was actually better!), I'm not sure I buy into that. I always look at both versions, but I think the 2.3 for this year probably overstates his future value.
Jackie
1:09
Did you know that Matt Barnes is tied for third in most career wins for the Red Sox in this century by a homegrown pitcher -- tied with the immortal Felix Doubront, behind Lester and Buchholz.  Why have the Red Sox been so terrible for so long at developing starting pitching?  Everyday players, they're great -- Betts, Boegarts, Devers, Benintendi, etc.  But they can't draft a pitcher to save their lives.  Is it an incorrect organization philosophy, bad luck, bad minor league coaching?
Keith Law
1:12
It's not the drafting ... Trey Ball was a huge miss, but since him, they've taken Groome (consensus top 3ish guy in the class, still a prospect), Kopech in the comp round (still a great prospect, used to acquire Sale), and Houck (role unclear but absolutely a prospect). Look out for Thad Ward too - fifth rounder from 2018. They've traded some guys and had some developmental misses, but I think on the whole the bigger issue is a lack of numbers. They haven't used that many high picks on pitchers, preferring to draft bats and trade for or sign arms.
Portmantoter
1:12
Hi Keith.  I'm listening to the audiobook of 'Smart Baseball' right now and really enjoying it.  I wanted to ask if you had input into who would be the narrator -- I was hoping to hear your voice when I turned it on.  And couldn't anybody tell the poor guy that it's pronounced Laj-a-way?  Thanks for the chat!
Keith Law
1:12
They asked me if I wanted to listen to the three candidates but I said no as I was in the middle of something - maybe writing my top 100.
BigDaddeh
1:12
I know it's just a few months into the career, but seeing Witt Jr in the top 10 of prospect lists seems off. Are you still all in?
Keith Law
1:12
He's not in my top 10.
Mark
1:13
What's a realistic trade for Mookie Betts this offseason and should the BoSox consider it given their financial commitments on the books and what it would take to sign him long-term? Would 1 year of Betts be worth multiple top 100 prospects to the team getting him? Is 1 top 25 prospect enough?
Keith Law
1:14
If you're a team on the cusp of a playoff spot, yes, it's probably worth giving up two of your top prospects for the boost Betts would give you. I can see many teams that would love an immediate six-win gain (conservatively) in the standings.
Jerry
1:14
Astros are about to make it through a full season without issuing an intentional BB.  Assuming this makes KLAW happy....
Keith Law
1:14
Extremely.
Arnold
1:14
Nice scene at Fenway the other night with Mike catching Granddaddy Yaz's 1st pitch (a strike!), then homering and expertly playing a ball off the Green Monster like Carl used to do. Young Yaz's 20 jacks is more pop than the Giants have seen in years. Is that repeatable or is it likely that pitchers will figure him out with a year's worth of scouting?
Keith Law
1:15
I think this is entirely the juiced ball. He's never been a prospect beyond maybe an emergency callup.
Mark
1:15
Has Tim Anderson and Moncada shown enough defensive skills to stay in their respective positions long-term?  Do you believe changing positions can negatively impact a player's offensive production?
Keith Law
1:15
Yes to both players, yes to the latter question but it will vary by player.
Harper - Bat speed
1:16
Is there any chatter in the scouting community about Bryce Harper's bat speed and/or ?  His exit velo numbers aren't awful, but watching him in person it really looks like he's cheating to pull and it leaves him really exposed to high and away fastballs.  He's had a ton of injuries at a young age, and I worry we'll never see anything resembling his 2015 season again.
Keith Law
1:16
Nope, have neither heard nor seen any such thing.
Felix
1:16
I've heard rumblings in chats that Casey Mize wasn't the same when he came back from injury. What was the issue and how much concern should there be?
Keith Law
1:17
Don't think he came back healthy. Stuff was much less crisp. Hoping it's nothing, but aware there's a good chance it's a serious injury.
JT
1:17
I've been curious about a component of BA: is it possible that the lower the level of competition it is, the more important it becomes?
Keith Law
1:18
In general, no. There are, however, absolutely reasons to be concerned when, say, a guy with a plus hit tool fails to hit for average AND isn't making quality contact on top of that.
Epsthoyer
1:18
Enjoy your chats, Klaw.  My dilemma...JHey is not opting out, so do I trade Schwarbs and resign Castellanos or allow myself to believe that 2nd half Kyle is a sign of better things to come and fix the lineup through free agency (hello Rendon)?
Keith Law
1:18
Don't you have to make a run at Rendon? Every contender that can sign him should be trying to do so. Best FA bat on the market, bar none.
Ian
1:18
Should Justin Trudeau resign and/or end is campaign?
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