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Klawchat 9/20/18
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Keith Law
1:41
Hold/buy. Unless they make the organizational decision to trade Arenado, which I'm not advocating or opposing here, there's no point to a rebuild. Either you do it all the way, including him, or you do nothing.
Eric
1:43
Do you think the Jays really held Alford down for two weeks at the end of the AAA season for service time reasons? Any thoughts of what he might be for the Jays going forward?
Keith Law
1:44
They held Vlad down for service time reasons. Why would we be surprised that they'd do this to another player? Alford has above-average regular upside but 1) his power has never translated into games 2) he gets hurt a lot and 3) he's failed to perform in two of the last three years. There's plenty of reason to question his eventual role & upside, even though he has been a top 50 prospect in the past.
Anthony
1:46
With the slider instead of the changeup, could Taillon be a 1/2 starter or is he going to have too much trouble with LHH?
Keith Law
1:46
It's rare but not impossible for a pitcher to use a pitch like his slider (which is hard like a cutter) to get opposite-side hitters out. I'm just generally a Taillon fan anyway so I am inclined to think he can do it.
John
1:46
If you would the Cardinals how would you approach this off-season? See what Carlos Martinez could fetch and sign a starter? Pursue the big bats? Clear up the 2B/3B logjam and sign a real SS?
Keith Law
1:48
I think they have plenty of starters; really I look at their core and see a potential playoff team for 2019, although with Carpenter turning 33 in November they need to plan for a lineup without his production in the near future.
JR
1:48
As a Mets fan, I know the smart play is to shop deGrom, Thor and/or Wheeler this offseason, but man, aren't those the types of starters to build around? Sucks to be a small market team in a big market.
Keith Law
1:48
You shop them all and see what you get; I doubt the market will offer huge returns for all three.
Sean
1:48
I have heard you say that Vlad Jr could be the next Big Papi in terms of position and ability to consistently hit for average and power. How long of a leash would you give him at 3B if you were the Jays next year?
Keith Law
1:49
I've seen him twice this year and expect to see him again in the AFL, but at this point, I don't see any chance that body or lack of range works at third. Just DH him and tell him to go hit .360 with 40 bombs.
Dr. Bob
1:49
From an article by Jonah Keri, it appears that the Blue Jays are about to go with a youth movement. Don't you need a better overall farm system to do that? Or is having a few top prospects enough?
Keith Law
1:49
They seem to believe they have a better farm system than they actually do.
Matt
1:49
Blake Rutherford seemed to make some progress offensively this season, but finished with an OPS under .800. Do you think he hits for enough power to project as a starting corner OF?
Keith Law
1:49
No - there's no impact there and a corner bat has to have that.
Alex
1:49
How would you rate Klentak at this point? Should Phillies fans be optimistic? Seems like he's been pretty hit/miss on player evaluations.
Keith Law
1:50
Think he's done well everywhere but with first-round picks - although Randolph predates him. They haven't hit on any of their last three prior to Bohm.
Rising tides
1:50
Isn't service time manipulation really a symptom of MLBPA throwing 1-3yr service time players under the bus creating a huge pay inequality at the MLB level?
Keith Law
1:51
The union has long focused on free agency and the trickle-down effect it has on arbitration, but the minimum salary has gone up by nearly 70% in the last few CBAs, so they haven't ignored 0-3 guys - they just might have undersold them.
Steven
1:52
Are we seeing the days of the 4th and 5th starter going by the wayside? Honestly, it seems like a much better strategy to let your 2 or 3 best pitchers go as deep into games as they can, while breaking up the other 2 games among your pen.
Keith Law
1:52
Nothing in baseball is permanent, but if you're asking whether more teams will do bullpen days in 2019-20, I'd say yes, definitely.
Anthony
1:52
If you're Counsell, how do you manage a one game playoff without a true ace? Throw out your best starter and be aggressive about bringing in Hader/Jeffress for possible multiple inning appearances?
Keith Law
1:53
Yeah, you plan on using Hader for 9 outs and go from there. Hell, what about starting him, knowing he's probably out by the 4th? Other than one likely out when he bats, is there a downside I'm not considering?
Jake
1:53
Adalberto Mondesi has played very well over the last 50 games, do you see an All-star upside for this guy or will his low OBP always limit what he can be?  The tools are there!
Keith Law
1:53
Low OBP really limits his ceiling - but Rougned Odor isn't a dissimilar player and suddenly found religion at the plate this year.
Bench
1:54
Angels Luis Rengifo seems to come out of nowhere. Is he in their top 5 next year? Top 20 in MLB as well?
Keith Law
1:54
Nice pickup in the Cron deal, but not in their top 5, and I assume top 20 was a typo.
Jake
1:56
Thoughts on MJ Melendez, and was he projected to his for this much power?
Keith Law
1:56
Still very TBD on the bat. Had power in HS - fairly sure I wrote that about him, and I saw him destroy a ball when I went to his school that March. Would really like to see him catch, as he was very athletic and agile back there but almost too high energy.
Chad
1:56
When will you be in Arizona for the Fall League? Who will you be watching? Which new restaurant will you try?
Keith Law
1:57
Second week, I watch everybody, and I have a list of new restaurants. I did get to Roland's over Labor Day weekend and it was excellent.
Jim Nantz
1:57
Are their enough pitchers to fill out 2 additional teams, if there's expansion, without seriously diluting the product?
Keith Law
1:57
Yes.
JR
1:57
Is there any evidence that all the steps teams are taking to protect pitchers arms is working? Seems like a bunch of pitchers still end up needing TJ surgery, despite all the steps teams take. As awful as this sounds, do you think teams will start to treat pitchers the way NFL does with running backs? Realize most will only have a few good/great years, bring them up to the majors faster and just throw them as much as they can in the 6 years of control they have and hope for the best and then let them go (or trade them in year 4/5 if on a non-contender)?
Keith Law
1:58
My understanding is that although we've cut excessive workloads, which is probably the reason catastrophic shoulder injuries are way down, pitchers throwing as hard as they can just about all the time is still a big factor in UCL tears, and that hasn't changed.
Chris
1:58
Imagine if the Mets let Dom Smith play 1B all year? Maybe he would have gotten the required ABs  for a young player to develop and grow like, say, Amed Rosario! Yeeeeeeeesh. Should Mets just pick one of Smith or Alonso moving fwd?
Keith Law
1:58
Yes, they should commit to one and shop the other. If that means giving up on Smith, knowing he could very well go somewhere else and perform, so be it. But this is not how you develop a young player.
Jordan
1:58
Where would you rank the Mets farm system going into next season? Mid-tier? Seems like almost all their top-20 guys had terrific seasons.
Keith Law
2:00
Above the median. Good chance they'll be top ten. Most of their big names had great years, they landed a stud in Kelenic, their second-rounder Woods-Richardson looked better in pro ball than in the spring, and they had some pop-up guys like Newton establish themselves as prospects too. I get Mets fans on Twitter telling me how bad they think the farm is, but they're totally wrong. They've drafted well, consistently, and hit on some international guys too.
John
2:00
is it just me, or do you think one of the biggest issues facing society today is how little people seem to grasp the concept of nuance? not even related to a single issue. people don't understand how free speech works, and in the case of kavanaugh, they dont understand this isnt a criminal trial, but a high profile job application. is nuance just too difficult to grasp/teach?
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