JotCast | Klawchat 9/26/19

Klawchat 9/26/19

Keith Law

2:01

Birth. School. Klawchat. Death.

addoeh

2:01

Who would bring back the Cubs a greater return; Baez or Bryant?

Keith Law

2:01

I have to think Baez given positional scarcity/flexibility, right?

Sad Canadian

2:01

Hi Keith. I live in a country where the voters are probably going to re-elect as Prime Minister a "woke bae" who has been found to have, on at least 3 occasions, worn blackface. Any reason why I shouldn't dig a very large hole and hide in it for, I don't know, forever?

Keith Law

2:02

It does depend a bit on the alternative, no? I mean, I'd vote for Woke Bae if it were him vs. Trump.

Sam

2:02

Who do you think is more likely to still be employed as manager of their current team this time next week: Joe Maddon or Mickey Callaway?

Keith Law

2:02

Maddon. Not that I entirely blame Callaway for the Mets missing the playoffs, but I feel like he'll be the scapegoat.

Brian G

2:02

Good day, Keith - CBA expires season after next I believe. Rough odds we'll have a work stoppage? (Full disclosure: I have cc'd Rudy Giuliani and Willy Barr on this message to you, normal stuff.)

Keith Law

2:03

excellent, I can trust those two guys to keep a secret. I say 20% odds. I hope I'm being pessimistic.

Nelson

2:03

Despite the juiced ball, why has there has been only 1 50HR season in the past 2 years?

Keith Law

2:06

Well, two of the players most likely to get to 50+ missed too much of this season to injuries to do so. We've also got a player at 49 this year, and in 2017 we had two guys cross 50 (the same two who missed part of this year). But I think the best explanation is that juicing the ball isn't going to help every player exactly the same way, right? It's not some linear function where we just add X feet of distance or multiply every distance by (1+x) where x is somewhere between 0 and 0.2 or something.

Mike

2:06

With Giminez coming soon, do you think Rosario can move to CF? Unfortunately, Cano will be holding onto 2nd base for a while longer.

Keith Law

2:07

Gimenez had a .309 OBP in AA, and doesn't project to hit for power. I don't think he's coming soon.

mark

2:07

My kids are big pancake fans. I find mine tend to be a bit flat. What is the secret to a big fluffy pancake?

Keith Law

2:07

Separate the eggs, then whip the egg whites (with a pinch of cream of tartar) to stiff peaks before folding them into the rest of the batter.

Carl

2:07

Tommy Edman more than a 4th OF for the next few years?

Keith Law

2:07

I think he's an extra guy, not a regular.

John

2:07

What are your thoughts on the dynasty fantasy baseball industry and how it affected your industry? Your articles and rankings (along with others ie. BA, Pipeline) are the main tools used in group chats, trade proposals, etc. etc. Would you participate in some way within this community?

Keith Law

2:08

I don't play fantasy, but of course I am happy to have folks read & use my content for that.

Sedona

2:08

Has Tony Gonsolin shown enough to win a rotation spot next year? What do you think his ceiling is?

Keith Law

2:08

Ceiling of mid-rotation starter. Five extra points for the hair.

Sam

2:08

The Giants will undoubtedly extend a QO to Maddison Bumgarner. Considering his declining analytics, age and the amount of innings he has thrown do you see much a market for him this offseason. Is he going to be this years Dallas Keuchel where he may have to wait until after the draft to sign because of the QO? Thanks

Keith Law

2:09

Keuchel was hurt a bit by concerns about his injury history and durability. I don't think Bumgarner faces either, although I agree with your points about declining fundamentals and general workload.

Buscon Bob

2:09

Position players who can draw walks and hit for power are seemingly the must-have for all baseball teams, why does it seem as if Avila is allergic to this in Detroit?

Keith Law

2:10

I think the Tigers are targeting different players than the rest of the industry across the board, and I don't exactly know why. It does seem like, in the draft at least, they tend to take guys who are more famous - and more toolsy - than guys who pass the sort of contemporary filters teams use, which includes Trackman or similar data.

Sedona

2:10

Amed Rosario has taken a huge step offensively this year at age 23. He's improved his #'s year over year. What do you think his ceiling will be?

Keith Law

2:10

I think by 26-27 he'll be a star. I am no longer sure where he'll play, as he has regressed on defense since reaching the majors, and I don't know if 1) I overrated his defensive ceiling or 2) the Mets are just not good at developing gloves.

Aaron

2:10

Joey Votto recently mentioned that he would rather retire (quit) than struggle thru the last years of his contract. The reds could never publicly support this. Buttttttttttttt, what percentage chance do you think they quietly hope he does this before his play turns into a Albert Pulojis type situation (or do you think it does with him).

Keith Law

2:11

I'm sure they hope he does so, or takes a buyout, or there's an injury that gets them an insurance payment.

2:11

I'm trying to reconcile this Mets season. On the one hand, it was very entertaining with some great performances by deGrom, Alonso, McNeil, Conforto. On the other hand, nearly everything went right with the starting rotation and the key positional players were mostly healthy and this is the best they could do (obviously the bullpen weighed them down). There is every reason to expect some regression next year - especially from the rotation and they've sacrificed their top prospects in the meantime. In sum, I enjoyed this season but the short term benefit does not outweigh the long term cost they paid to field this team.

Keith Law

2:12

I agree, but I think they'll go all in for 2020 now that they've traded Kelenic/Dunn and acquired Stroman (trading Kay and SWR). Because they've gutted their system - which still has some prospects of value - they've increased their incentive to win in the short term. The long term looks much worse.

Brad

2:12

Keith, I think Trump relishes this latest development: (1) He KOs Biden, who he considers the main opponent, with lies and smears; and (2) He again sucks out the room’s oxygen by dominating the news with his persecution complex while Dem candidates and key issues again get bumped off the airwaves.

Keith Law

2:12

Thirteen months before the election probably mitigates your second concern. As for Biden, uh, okay, bye.

Corey

2:12

If a billionaire with a sports empire who owns one of the richest clubs in pro sports trades off one of the best 5 players in the game in his prime to save $ + get under an arbitrary threshold, i'm thinking it's time he sell the team Is Boston really going to do something that dumb ?

Keith Law

2:13

There's a good baseball rationale for trading Betts, but they have to get an impressive return for him, and that's not easy - also, they don't have a GM yet.

Dean Mavrides

2:13

Is Vidal Brujan TB's future 2b?

Keith Law

2:13

Yes.

Craig

2:13

Dom Smith for Trent Grisham. Who says no?

Keith Law

2:13

Does Grisham fit the Mets? Not a bad deal for value but I'm not sure it addresses a need for NY.