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Klawchat 9/29/17
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Keith Law
1:19
High end starter.
Matt
1:19
Do you think people purposefully put questions in the "comments" or just a  matter of not paying attention? Always wondered your take on this.
Keith Law
1:19
I believe the chat window doesn't always show up on mobile devices, so some folks get confused. It's fine. But I answer questions in here.
Steve
1:19
How do u organize all your keeper books so you can find them? Is there a KLaw Top 102 section, for ex? Sci Fi?  Do tell..,
Keith Law
1:19
I only keep maybe 10-15% of what I read, and they're semi-organized by author and type.
Derek
1:19
Do scouts ever predict the kind of defensive transcendence that Andrelton Simmons displays? With SS, it's usually "good enough to stick at the position" or "has a chance to be above average" or something similar. I guess it's just really tough to predict someone will be historically great. My question is: did you see Simmons becoming this defensive savant when he was a prospect? Does anybody in the minors at any position have that kind of defensive ability?
Keith Law
1:20
No; I heard he was a very good defender with an 80 arm, so maybe a 60 glove, maybe better, but I don't recall anyone telling me he was an 80 glove. Everyone thought he'd end up on the mound.
Aaron C.
1:20
Read your newsletter this morning. Sorry to hear about the general jerkiness of humanity. Curious about the seasonal assholes you hear from: Spring = your season record predictions; Fall = your awards predictions; Winter = Hall of Fame. Who hates you in the summer?
Keith Law
1:21
Late spring and summer it's the "you were wrong with this one take on this one player" crowd. Especially popular with players having their first good year somewhere. Whatever - it's part of the job. My only complaint is that when I get a lot of those it can drown out real comments that might merit an answer. A week or so ago, there were some BFIBs going nuts over Luke Weaver, although they went dead silent after he faced the Cubs.
Andy
1:21
The ESPN comment section is hilarious. You're accused of East Coast Bias due to picking Sale. Then the next comment is claiming Judge is far and away the MVP, and you clearly haven't seen him play. Other highlights, "Javy Baez is the MVP of the Cubs," "I don't care about pitcher's strikeouts," and "Kluber has more wins in less starts." Plus the comments about how you ignored NL ROY. To someone not you, this is all amazingly fun.
Keith Law
1:22
Never read the comments.
Guy F.
1:22
Thoughts on the salted caramel craze of the past couple of years?
Keith Law
1:22
I mean, I love salted caramel, so it's fine with me. And the salt can mute any bitter notes in the caramel (which, since it's lightly burned sugar, will have some bitter chemicals).
jay_B
1:22
Arbitrary end points here, but Javy Baez has been excellent in the second half. If even some of this is real, two questions: .275/.325/.500 a real possibility, and with his defensive ability, what's that worth?
Keith Law
1:23
That's probably a star, no? Sounds like a 4 WAR player.
Larry I in L.A.
1:23
Thanks for all of your thought-provoking work over the years, Keith! A 40-year friendship of mine is in peril due to our current political situation. We were in each other’s wedding and have been fantasy baseball partners since 1982, but now he says stuff like “I refuse to believe that our leaders would intentionally lie to us for financial gain.” (And I thought the knock on progressives was that we are gullible and naïve!) This ties in to the backlash over your hypothetical awards ballot column, another illustration that too many folks prefer to cling to outdated notions than, you know, learn new stuff. Can our country recover from this ever-widening streak of anti-intellectualism?
Keith Law
1:24
I'm not hopeful; if anything, anti-intellectualism is creeping forward, like with Florida's legislature trying to allow the teaching of "intelligent design" (which, to be very kind, is just pseudoscience) in public schools.
Jeffry
1:24
Thought on Amed Rosario and Dom Smith after some up and down showing in the majors? Growing pains or red flags?
Keith Law
1:24
All good. Same outlook as before.
Aaron Judge struck out in 44% of his PA in 2016. He got better.
Chris
1:24
Do you agree with this position regarding moving players around in minors? "It's just for versatility and flexibility," Mets farm director Ian Levin said. "You never know what will come in the future. Also, getting exposure to other positions makes you better at your position. We get all of our middle infielders experience at second, short, even third."
Keith Law
1:25
In general, yes. I think it also allows you to develop potential utility guys by giving them a few reps at short every year. However, I'd be concerned about putting inexperienced players at second base and having them get hurt on double plays.
Jon
1:25
How can you not include Eric Thames in your MVP consideration? I feel like you're overweighting the final 140 games of the season.
Keith Law
1:27
Can we talk about how almost everyone is pretending that they didn't get all hysterical over him in April? You know how many "YOU WERE WRONG ABOUT THAMES" tweets and comments I got back then? Can we remember any of this next April when some rando goes off for three weeks?
Dane Iorg
1:27
Who says no to this deal: Carson Kelly, Jack Flaherty, and Jedd Gyorko for Josh Donaldson. Cards? Jays? Both? Neither?
Keith Law
1:28
I think the Cards would and should say no to that. Very likely everyday catcher, with some upside beyond that; very likely back-end starter with modest upside; both major-league ready and cheap for six years. Ton of value there, and we're not talking about highly volatile A-ball kids.
J.O.
1:28
Which WAR do you like better?  Should I just take the average of the two? (And when I do, should I not count walks/HBP when I am calculating the average?)
Keith Law
1:29
I look at both, and where they differ greatly, I delve into where they agree and where they diverge. It's important to understand why they differ - is it a BABIP issue (for pitchers)? Defensive disagreement (for fielders)?
Ken
1:29
What kind of line do you see Matt Chapman putting up in a full season?
Keith Law
1:29
Sub-.300 OBP, 30 HR, Gold Glove defense.
Nik
1:29
Can Dane Dunning be anything better than a decent #4?
Keith Law
1:29
I think so.
Alex A.
1:29
Is Pedro’s kid a real prospect?
Keith Law
1:31
I don't know. I wasn't familiar with him before he signed, and he wasn't on Jesse Sanchez's top 30 july 2nd prospects list this year or Longenhagen's top 25. Also a little unusual for a prospect to sign at 17 rather than 16, but that may be because his family already has money and he was finishing school.
Grover
1:31
From your front office experience, would a move like benching Pujols require GM/ownership intervention?  If he were so inclined could Scoscia just do it himself since it's probably the best move for the team?
Keith Law
1:31
Owner would have to sign off on that.
German
1:31
How should the Twins approach the wild card game? On paper, they look overmatched, but as we know, baseball is weird.
Keith Law
1:34
If they do anything novel, it should be handling the pitching staff like there's an extended fire drill. Start Berrios, because he's your best starter, but have all hands on deck, and if you need seven pitchers to keep the game close, you do it. Forget the traditional model - starter goes 5-6, setup guy in 8th, closer in 9th - and just get outs. They will be overmatched, but they have at least design enough for the luck to help them.
Eddie
1:34
Any good reason why Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands aren't states yet? It seems like bringing them officially into the union would be a win/win for everyone. My only thought is that the career politicians that run our country, on both sides of the aisle, must think bringing the 2 in will tip balance of power to the other side, therefore they choose not to push for their statehood.
Keith Law
1:35
They'd lose their favorable tax status, and American taxpayers would likely end up paying a lot to prop up their economies, especially in the first few years. I'm actually fine with that, but you can see how that might not be terribly popular in Congress, with virtually no voting constituencies in favor of it.
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