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Klawchat 9/3/21
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Keith Law
1:00
Pain finds me everywhere. Klawchat.
Heather
1:00
If you don't answer my question, I'll give you a thumbs down.
Keith Law
1:01
Dammit, I'm already downvoted before we begin.
Guest
1:01
Keith, I am an RN who cannot seem to get through to my family members about the vaccine. What would you suggest is the best way to objectively reason with people who are listening to bad sources, or have we just lost a significant portion of the country to a cult?
Keith Law
1:04
It's some of both, really. I had an argument with an anti-vaxxer recently - in person, of all things, and she wasn't masked! - who trotted out every dumb anti-vax trope, from microchips to vitamin D to fake side effects. There was no getting through to her. But we are also prone to overweight highly memorable anecdotes, which skews us towards negative ones - if you see a facebook post that claims the vaccine has killed 5000 Americans (they haven't, and the correct number is probably 0), that's going to lodge in your mind, and it will take a lot of patient counterarguments to dislodge it. So I'd pick your battles here, find a family member who is hesitant but not refusing, and start slowly with them.
Pat
1:04
Glass Tiger? You've hit a new low!!
Keith Law
1:04
That song has been in my head for three days. I have no idea why.
Guy B
1:04
Just curious if you suffered any storm damage in your area of the country?  If so, stay safe.
Keith Law
1:06
We did not, but we were fortunate. If you've seen images of the Brandywine River overflowing its banks - it reached 22', which is believed to be a record high - that is less than 4 miles from our house, and multiple roads near us were impassable. We also know someone whose backyard was damaged by the tornado up in Mullica Hill, NJ. We happen to live on slightly higher ground - nothing is THAT high in Delaware - and just far enough from the river here that we did OK. Thank you for asking.
Pj (Jersey City)
1:06
What is wrong with cody bellinger at the plate? He looks completely lost.
Keith Law
1:06
My guess is it's a lingering effect from the shoulder injury. He's getting beat on fastballs. You don't just forget how to hit a fastball.
ben
1:06
Hi, I'm the guy who said hello at the setbreak of the Hershey show. How was your Phish experience?
Keith Law
1:07
Good! And I'm glad you popped in here, because I have felt bad since then for failing to ask your name. Anyway, the shows were good, and I'm glad we didn't get "Tweezer" but did get a bunch of the songs I know best from when I was in college. A "YEM" would have been nice, but I'm not complaining. I think I saw you at the second show, which had the encore of Trey solo stuff? That's not really my cup of tea.
Joe
1:07
Nick Yorke’s bat seems to be living up to the Sox expectations. Have you heard any reports on his defense? Ave glove at 2B, below average, but playable or maybe a LF but the bat will probably play?
Keith Law
1:08
Heard raves on the bat and maybe 45 defense at second. More than playable as long as he hits like this. Maybe he was just underscouted because of the pandemic - I have still never seen him.
John
1:08
Daniel Lynch has been good his second time up. Is this what you expected from your Wilmington looks?
Keith Law
1:09
Getting there. I think there's more improvement ahead of him, especially working more as a 3-4 pitch guy who doesn't rely too much on the fastball (up to 99, regularly at 97, but plays below that because of lack of life/movement).
The Royals are going to get very interesting very soon. Next year they should have a better rotation, plus Witt, Pratto, maybe MJM.
Bob
1:09
How is the business of minor league ball? I’ve been shocked at how sparsely games I’ve attended have been and the crowd shits on MiLB.tv have been similar. Should we be concerned that minor league ball is something that never really comes all the way back?
Keith Law
1:11
I've noticed the same when I've been out at games this year. Nobody is drawing. It's definitely a concern because that's their main revenue source - and I don't want a situation where more MiLB owners feel compelled to sell to MLB.
Bill S.
1:11
Keith, (accidentally hit send too soon, I'll try again).  The Dodgers organization has clearly been successfully through the minors with player development.  However, does their perennial contender status actually hurt them with the final stage of player development - young players in the majors?  
Thinking about Gavin Lux, and to a lesser degree Zack McKinstry this year.  To finish their development young players need to play regularly in the majors.  Yet, the Dodgers divisional race makes it hard for them to roll out players who are not fully baked.  How should they handle Lux, as well as other talented minor leaguers that will eventually come up and need regular time?  Thank you!
Keith Law
1:12
It's a reasonable concern, especially for players who come up at positions where the Dodgers have established regulars - Lux (Seager), Keibert (Smith, plus Cartaya behind). Easier on the pitching side because they can always work in those guys in long relief first. I think the Dodgers are among the top 2-3 organizations for drafting & development, but even they can't ignore those structural issues and it may mean certain players don't develop fully unless there's an injury.
Bob
1:12
I think you mentioned some concerns about Michael Harris’ approach earlier in the year. His BB rate has improved some recently, have you heard if he’s made some real improvements there?
Keith Law
1:12
It's not his walk rate - it's his recognition of offspeed stuff. Be careful not to scout the stat line.
Derek
1:12
Has Kevin Made's second half performance and tools he's displayed elevated him to the same or near-prospect level of Ed Howard?
Keith Law
1:13
I mean, they've both been pretty bad. They're really young & inexperienced for pro ball, so I'm not saying they're no longer prospects, but I don't know what you're seeing here.
JJ
1:13
Red Sox failing to sign their high second round pick -- is that on Fabian (and his "advisors")  for way overvaluing himself, or on Chaim Bloom for not having a clear understanding of what it would take to get him to sign before making the selection, thereby wasting the 40th pick in the draft?
Keith Law
1:15
That's 100% on the advisers and the player too. Failure to understand the market, to recognize what a bad year he had, and most of all, to get that it's a draft - the system sucks for players, but this is the system. He's going to be a fourth-year junior next year and pretty much has to go top 20 to beat what he would have made from Boston. When you go a whole spring and don't make adjustments to the way pitchers are getting you out, you're not a first-rounder.
Deke
1:15
So what's your strategy to avoid feeling despondent about **waves generally at the entire world**? Because my strategies of late are not working.
Keith Law
1:16
I've avoided reading too much about a lot of the awfulness in the world. Texas turning into a fundamentalist theocracy, which has been coming for years, is beyond depressing, but reading more about that isn't going to accomplish anything except reminding me of the high cost of low education.
Jackie
1:16
It used to be that 300 victories was the benchmark for automatic entry into the HOF for starting pitchers, but no one's coming close to that number in the foreseeable future.  The 500 HR threshhold went out the door for hitters with Sosa/McGwire/Palmeiro.  Do you think there are any automatic statistical threshholds left?
Keith Law
1:16
There might be for some voters, but I don't think there are any more.
C-Note
1:18
Best guess….% chance Bauer pitches in the MLB again?
Keith Law
1:18
It sounds like 0%, and I'm fine with that.
Robert
1:18
I've seen it said that Yoelqui Cespedes has some pitch recognition issues.  Can some of this be attributed to rust (not playing)?  Either way, is this a skill that can develop?
Keith Law
1:18
It is a skill that can develop, but it's rare, and I think this is just what he is right now - a big tools guy without that core skill.
Stevo
1:19
I get that MLB pitchers spend all of their time focused on pitching which is why their hitting suffers but why haven't we seen a pitcher/hitter like Ohtani before?
Keith Law
1:20
Ohtani strikes out in a third of his PA. Before the last 2-3 years, the industry would have considered that unacceptable and made him just a pitcher.
Joe Don
1:22
Keith, there’s a very loud contingent of Texas fans demanding that the team sign one of the soon-to-be big money free agents, specifically mentioning Trevor Story and Carlos Correa. Given how far the Rangers are from being competitive again, does it make any sense for them to dive head-first into this year’s free-agent pool?
Keith Law
1:23
I would say no - not that I'd oppose them doing so, because I don't think there's huge downside, but I think they're a good 2-3 years from contending.
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