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Live Chat With Fantasy Baseball Expert Nicklaus Gaut
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Nicklaus Gaut
10:58
Alright, about to get started
Willie Mays Hayes
11:00
When do you hit the panic button on hitters/pitchers once the season starts?
Nicklaus Gaut
11:01
It takes me a while to actually hit the button but that doesn’t mean you should just ignore any possible trends as small-sample noise. Particularly when it comes to bullpen usage and where (and against whom) hitters are living in the lineup. If there’s a big gap between your drafting expectations and the early reality of results, backup plans and strategies should start convalescing.
gbs42
11:01
Hey, Nick. In a 5x5 weekly league, should I start Brandon Marsh or Joey Meneses this week? Thanks for all you do!
Nicklaus Gaut
11:02
Give me Marsh even though he’ll likely sit at least one of the scheduled LHP (probably Sanchez).
George
11:02
Ernie Clement - flash in the pan or legit option for AL-only leagues?
Nicklaus Gaut
11:03
A little more than a flash by talent but his fantasy usefulness will be limited by the lack of a clear path to full-time PAs. His positional flexibility will help him squeeze in a lot of places but that’s a hard situation to rely on for our purposes.
Dan Grant
11:04
Thanks for the chats Nicklaus. I'm in a 14 team dynasty league with 45 man rosters -- there is a guy who is after a closer (his words) and has interesting SP's on the block (Ragans, Ober) -- I own Hader, Romano and Sewald. Obviously dealing with some injuries, but he is interested in Romano -- with that said, he says he 'doesn't value closers particularly highly because it seems like they come out of nowhere every year' and doesn't agree with my position that it would take Ober + (even more so after that disaster start haha) to land a guy like Romano who is in his prime and entrenched in the role on a good team.
Crap, I send by accident! Anyway sorry for the novel but we have a traditional roto scoring system but with QS instead of W's on the pitching side. My question is -- how do you personally value closers in a dynasty? I see his point to some extent, but you also need them to win, AND he's the guy actively pursuing them.
Nicklaus Gaut
11:04
It would take more than Ober for me to give up Romano in a 14-team. I’m a big Ober guy but he’s still more hope than reality at this point in his value arc and as you said, Romano’s a proven guy on a competitive team in a fantasy world where 30+ Save guys no longer grow on trees.
11:05
And while closers may come out of nowhere every year, that’s some hindsight bias - surprise guys might pop up every season but predicting/ actually rostering who it will be is often a crapshoot. Especially in 14-team and deeper leagues.
But if Ragans is actually on the block for a closer-centered deal, I’d much rather pay up for him.
Bearded Hulk
11:05
Can Bradford of the Rangers keep it going?
Nicklaus Gaut
11:06
Doubtful. Stuff still looks like the 5+ ERA guy from last season. Still doesn’t miss many bats and running a .125 BABIP - not a good recipe. With that said, a matchup with Oakland next is certainly streamable.
Bearded Hulk
11:06
Will Pete Alonso rebound. His swing looks horrible.
Nicklaus Gaut
11:07
He’ll figure it out. I give a to-oon of leeway to proven hitters who struggle in April. Even ones who currently have garbage swings like Alonso right now lol
Bearded Hulk
11:07
Who is someone on most yahoo waiver wires that you would pick up.
Nicklaus Gaut
11:07
Hmm, let's see who we see...
11:08
Brenton Doyle, at least for their remaining homestand this week
Hader
11:09
Even in getting his save on Sunday, Josh Hader didn't look like he had much clue where the strike zone is. I've been offered Cleveland's Clase for him? Should I bite?
Nicklaus Gaut
11:09
I was already drafting Clase over Hader so that’s gonna be a yes for me dawg
11:10
Barring unforeseen injury, Clase is one of the surest things in fantasy
Infikelds out of bounds
11:10
Who's  the utility player who will be sent down or released first: Jon Berti (9 AB, 2 hits); Darrel Hernaiz (9 AB, 0 hits); or Nick Lofton (11 AB, 2 hits)? Please rank them in terms of this year's contributions.
Nicklaus Gaut
11:10
I think Hernaiz should get sent down first - It’s silly to let him struggle while only playing a game or two a week. Send him down and let him figure it out by playing every day. But he might be in a race against Loftin with Michael Massey on a rehab assignment.
RAGBRAI
11:10
I picked up B Alexander will he be fantasy relevant for a couple of months at least?
R
11:11
I keep hoping Andrew Vaughn will turn a corner, but he looks pretty lost. Was a highly rated prospect and is still young. Still hope to be a better than average 1B?
Nicklaus Gaut
11:11
Yeah, absolutely. Perdomo’s having surgery today so shortstop is going to be Blaze’s until May-ish. Well-rounded profile that’ll get on base with a good average and chip in a little pop and speed.
11:12
Oh baby, now we’re in my wheelhouse. Long-time Vaughn hater here and no, I don’t think he’ll ever be anything more than mid. In fact, in my waiver wire piece for Rotoballer yesterday, I believe I referred to him as the “mid-est of the mid”. To be fair, his profile is far more useful in the point leagues I was writing about but for roto the label remains a perfect fit. In 12-team leagues and below his mid-ing profile will mid himself to better than a replacement-level player most years via the power of compiling but to expect more is to court disappointment.
Cito's Mustache
11:12
Small sample, but Jackson Merrill is rocking a pretty sexy looking Baseball Savant profile. 91st percentile in Barrels, 81st in avg EV, 71st in sprint speed. The scouting grades on his game power and speed (merely average across the board) don't suggest a 25/25 threat. But at peak do you think he's capable of that? Trying to decide if he's a 'sell high' candidate in a dynasty points league or treat him as a potential core piece of my roster. Thanks, Nick!
Nicklaus Gaut
11:12
I’d be treating him as a core piece in a points league. Even if he doesn’t turn into a potential 25/25 guy, 20/20 is still well on the table and he doesn’t even need the extra pop/speed to be elite under most point-scoring systems. The eye is just so good that his contact rate will probably see him on base at a really high rate and that bodes really well for his long-term points value.
And you're welcome!
Dennis L
11:13
Are Brady Singer and Garrett Crochet for real or were their first 2 starts a fluke?
Nicklaus Gaut
11:13
I think Crochet is for real but I’m not trusting Singer quite yet. Definitely sitting him against HOU but another start against CHW after that should again be juicy.
DL2007
11:13
Who would you drop from Riley Greene, MJ Melendez, and Alex Kirilloff? (AL-only 5x5 League) Do you think these are viable fantasy players?
Nicklaus Gaut
11:14
I wouldn’t drop any of those guys in AL-only, even if it was only 8-teams. Hold, my friend.
Ron
11:14
Who are your best National league AA sp prospects that have a chance of being called up by June 1st?
Nicklaus Gaut
11:14
Cade Horton from the Cubs but I think June 1 might be pushing it. I’m also a big Hurston Waldrep guy but again 6/1 might be too soon - though the Strider injury certainly doesn’t hurt his chances.
Dan Grant
11:15
How early is too early to cut Lance Lynn and/or Kenta Maeda? I'm a dynasty where my pitching is hurt (Verlander, Buehler, E-Rod, Romano, Sewald) and while I've got both of them, I dont want to start them this week. My roster is pretty tight as I'm holding a few prospects, so I was thinking about cutting one for David Robertson or Tyler Anderson. Please help, it's a MASH unit over here. Josiah Gray, Kyle Hendricks, Paul Blackburn and Cody Bradford are also on the wire.
Nicklaus Gaut
11:16
Yo-ooo - sorry for losses, that’s a tough spot to be in, injury-wise. I hated Lynn going into the season and my feelings haven’t changed. I’d rather have either Robertson or Bradford. Even though I don't really believe in his long-term value, I'd lean Bradford just because of the upcoming OAK start.
D-back Hoarder
11:16
By draft happenstance, I’ve ended up with four D-backs (Carroll, Walker, Suarez, Moreno) in my lineup. Beyond the obvious (tough or short weeks for the team), is there downside risk in this that I’m overlooking? Should I be looking to unload for comparable value but with more team diversity?
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