JotCast | Magpie Brûlé's Alberta Election Night Live Blog

Magpie Brûlé's Alberta Election Night Live Blog

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Cameron Holmstrom

11:03

Well everyone, I think I am going to pack it in for tonight. Thanks for following along and taking the time to join in. In the coming days I'll have some thoughts and reflections on this result at www.magpiebrule.ca . Have a good night and take care.

10:51

One of the wildcard seats that I have been interested in was Cardston-Siksika in rural southern Alberta. I was watching this one because of the riding redistribution; this riding was drawn to try to give more Indigenous representation in the province, as the Indigenous population makes up a large portion of the population. And so far, after three polls, the NDP candidate Kirby Smith is in the lead. It will be interesting if they can hold that, it would make a silver lining to a difficult night for the Orange Team

10:47

It's also interesting to look at the Calgary results; even though there are still many polls to count there, the NDP is only ahead in 2 seats. For the area that was supposed to be the make or break area, it has gone very strongly in the blue direction

10:44

One interesting point raised by the CBC panel about what this new legislature might look like; this will be the first time in generations in Alberta where the Official Opposition have actually been in government, with actual former ministers as critics, people who actually know how government works. That's a good point not to be lost or glossed over, because healthy democracies naturally have these things. This is what happens when you have single party rule for over four decades.

10:41

Tonight is a bad night for progressive parties across the country in my view. I'll have more to say on that tomorrow after getting some sleep and processing all of this. Having Jason Kenney at the Premiers table is just not good in many ways. But the people of Alberta seem to have spoken

10:39

that took less than forty minutes, that's quicker than I thought it might

And CBC has projected a majority UCP government

10:38

Looking at the overall popular vote, the NDP is in the ballpark from their result in 2015, only 5% below that result. So may tonight be more about the Conservatives getting their collective act together rather than a rejection of the Notley government? I think that might be the case

10:36

With more results starting to come in, it's looking more and more like Calgary is going blue, but it's still early. Almost all of the NDP seats so far are in Edmonton, with a smattering of seats in other places

10:31

So far the trend of results coming in from rural areas quicker continues, but that's not where this race will be won. A lot of polls in the big cities still to come

10:25

In my experience, these first minutes are always the worst, as you're trying to parse the results from 1 or 2 polls in a few random riding.... Hopefully the results start to roll in faster soon

10:22

NDP back on the board, this time in Edmonton in the former seat of former NDP leader Brian Mason, with a solid lead for Janis Irwin

10:21

So far 6 seats reporting, all six going UCP, but all are in the rural areas, where the UCP was expected to role. So now shocks yet.

10:15

Two more seats in, and now we're off.... hopefully this will start a bit of a flood of results *fingers crossed*

10:13

And we have the first polls getting counted on the board, and of course it's the riding of Conservative Mark Smith, one of the bozo eruptions from the campaign. No shock in the result so far, sadly

10:11

CBC is reporting that the Conservatives already have their big entrance planned for tonight, with Jason Kenney driving his blue truck into the Stampede Grounds where they are celebrating. Something tells me that "humble" isn't the word to describe what they have planned, but that isn't Jason Kenney either

10:00

An interesting stat from the CBC broadcast about the large early turn out: at 750,000, that is half of the total turn out in 2015. That will make tonight very interesting, to see what that all ends up meaning

9:54

So the polls close in 7 minutes.... we'll know more shortly

9:53

There are also a hand full of certain ridings I'll be following which could be wildcards in this race, especially if it ends up being tight

9:50

And finally i'll be watching Calgary; that is where this election will be won and that is where the story will be told. If the NDP does better than expected there, that's good news for holding on. If the UCP does well there, that should be the icing on the cake.

9:49

Two other things I'm going to be watching will be the effect of the smaller parties in this tight race. Only the NDP, the UCP and the Alberta Party are running candidates in all ridings. The Liberals and the FCP, where they can candidates, could draw some votes and have been pulling a few percent each in various polls. Does that help certain parties, or better yet, how will that affect the results where they are not on the ballot?

9:47

Another thing I am watching for is to see the rubber hit the road in the Conservative merger, especially given the bozo eruptions and scandals around candidates and their leadership race. Will people put that all aside and get behind Jason Kenney, or will people be too scare of him and these issues and decide to go in another way?

9:46

Another thing i'm looking to see is how each of the major parties pull their vote; the NDP won last time with much less money and volunteers. This time it was different, as the NDP organization is the strongest it's ever been in Alberta, as shown by these stats in this tweet from the party:

We've closed the gap with the UCP by running the biggest campaign in Alberta NDP history. More signs, more donations, more supporters identified, and soon: more votes than ever before.

Let's bring this home. Find your polling location here: myvoteplan.albertandp.ca

#ImWithRachel

9:44

firstly will be the turn out: over 750,000 people voted in advanced polls, decimating records. The question for me is where that vote is coming from and what is their motivation. Is it Conservatives pumped to vote out the NDP, or is it progressive and younger voters determined to get out?

Tonight here are a few things that I'm watching for once the polls close

9:43

The NDP have been closing the gap, but was it too little too late? We'll soon find out

The polls are saying that this should be a walkaway win for the United Conservatives, but those polls have been tightening right to the end

9:42

Well tonight is the night, the polls close in 20 minutes and soon we'll get an idea of what the political future of Alberta and Canada will look like

9:15

Sorry we're just having a short delay here. We will now be aiming to start at 9:40 pm EST

9:00

Thanks for joining us everyone. We'll be getting started in a few minutes

8:16

Welcome to the Magpie Brûlé Alberta Election Night Live Blog... we're trying something new so I hope this works and please bear with us. We'll get started at around 9 pm EST/7 pm MST

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