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Mar14_2025 BHQ Chat
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Ray Murphy
12:02
Hi everyone? Drafting this weekend? Sure seems like a bunch of you are... got a queue full of questions, let's dive right in...
Alfresco
12:04
Hi Ray,

Much like the Yankees, my AL-only Scoresheet rotation took a gut-punch with the loss of both Cole and Gil.  I'm in desperation mode as I attempt to cobble together some semblance of a competitive pitching staff.  Presently on my roster are S Gray, Ober, Crochet, Bassitt, Arrighetti, Soriano.  Is this enough in a 10 team league?

Do any of these guys move the needle for you:
Bido
Fitts
Wesneski
Lively
Mitch Spence
Sean Burke

Appreciate your advice.  Have a great weekend.
Ray Murphy
12:04
Tough blows for sure, but what you have left still seems pretty good. Need more depth for sure, but "desperate" seems a bit harsh.

Fitts seems like he's going to open in the Boston rotation, with some spring buzz to go along with the opportunity... velo bump, etc. I'd probably have him at top of this list, even if he is just buying you coverage until the first supp draft.
Buff
12:08
What’s your take on Brett Baty? Is this the year he finally takes his opportunity and becomes a major leaguer?
Ray Murphy
12:08
Opportunity is the key question there, and I'm still not sure I see one for him. I know there's some buzz about him getting a 2B shot with McNeil out, so maybe that's really a thing. I sort of assumed they would go to Acuna given how he finished last year, but I'll admit that's one I'm not following that closely. In general, I like Baty's pedigree enough that he could still seize that gig if he gets that post-McNeil shot.
Alfresco
12:11
Will Cam Smith surprise us this season?
Ray Murphy
12:11
Putting aside the fact that the Astros seem to be making all of this up as they go along, from moving Altuve to LF to now trying Smith in RF... yeah, it does seem like this could work. All the usual caveats apply... Smith's had just a cup of coffee in Double-A, so all of the usual questions about how he'll transition to MLB.
sp
12:13
Hi Ray, thank you for taking my question. Can you rank the following SP (usual 5 categories) for their performance in 2025: Fried Woo Ober Bibbee Webb P-Lopez H-Brown Gallen McClanahan Alcantara Strider?
Ray Murphy
12:13
That's a lot of guys, but I'd have Ober/Bibee/Lopez/Webb/Brown/Fried in that order. Bunch of health questions at the end, one or more may come back and make that top tier, but anybody who tells you they know which one(s) is lying.
Zack
12:16
HQ’s projections for Arraez are very similar to other sites yet HQ’s rankings are MUCH higher for him than those other sites using similar projections.  HQ has him as the #5 1B while most other sites have him 13-15.  Any idea why HQ would be the exception?   Since projections are similar I would think rankings would be similar.
Ray Murphy
12:16
I tend not to pay too much attention to other sites projections, instead focus on making ours the best they can be. What you're describing sounds like a difference in methodology of converting the category projections into a dollar value. There can be some nuance in that for a rate stat like BA, room for different valuation methods to handle it differently.

On our side, if you're seeing that and thinking "Arraez is too high", you can use the Custom Draft Guide and knock the weighting of the BA category to 0.9 or 0.8, that will devalue Arraez's contribution. Personally, I don't mind seeing high-BA guy like him bubble to the top of my list mid-draft, I can decide based on how my build is going whether or not I want to target him at that point.
DrDave
12:19
I surmise that Brent is high on Ryan Weathers.  Do you have the same take?
Ray Murphy
12:19
You surmise correctly. Not getting super carried away with it because of the lousy team context, but I do have a bunch of cheap shares of him. Start with the Forecaster UP: comment, add in the good reports about his velocity/stuff this preseason, revamped Marlins staff/org seems to be doing some good things with pitching in general. Great end-game target.
Tom Tresh
12:20
I have lost one of my 6 keepers, George Kirby going on the IR with shoulder inflammation. My remaining 5 keepers in a 12 team mixed 5x5 league are Witt, Carroll , Olson, Chourio, Caminero. I have three choices to replace him: Helsley, Glasnow and Holliday. I think Holliday I can get back later in the draft. Helsley will get dealt and may not end up closing if so. Glasnow is another injury risk. Who would you choose? I know starting pitching is very deep this year so do I risk Helsley or since it’s a keeper league do I keep Holliday?
Ray Murphy
12:20
In general I think worrying about trade risk this early is being too cute by half. I'd probably keep Helsley, but I'm also pretty low on Glasnow I think. I just never end up taking that particular risk.
Dave
12:21
Hi Ray, thanks for taking the time during this busy and fun time of year. How would you rate these 1B guys in a $75 cap, 5x5 roto: C. Walker 4.84, J. Naylor 1.09 and R. Hoskins 2.20.
Ray Murphy
12:21
It is both busy and fun!

Naylor, Walker, Hoskins.
Broken bat
12:25
Ray, my almost final RedSox question… 1. What is the state of Liam Hendrix? Reported 96 mph, is good sign, but what do the eyeballs in Florida say?
Ray Murphy
12:25
I wish I had eyeballs in Florida! My belief is that a) Cora really wants Hendriks to be his closer, and b) Hendriks knows how to ramp up, and c) as long as he hangs a couple of good outings in the last week of camp, he'll get the first shot.
Vinny
12:25
Happy Friday, Ray! Today is draft day for me!

I’m preparing for my late-draft SP targeting and have identified the following gentlemen:

Nick Pivetta, Drew Rasmussen, Mike Soroka, Sean Burke, Ryan Weathers, Clay Holmes, Kris Bubic, David Festa, DJ Herz, Reid Detmers, and Quinn Matthews.

Got any favorites among this group? I love low WHIP upside ..

Bonus question: Are you a Chandler Simpson believer?

Thank you!
Ray Murphy
12:25
I'm generally not a big "spring helium" guy, but I'm fully buying Clay Holmes as an SP. Mentioned Weathers earlier. Love what we're hearing about Soroka. Still believe in Detmers' stuff. Can't quit Pivetta. Those are my faves there.

SImpson: we added a projection for him this week. I don't think he's a break-the-scale SB impact, but wouldn't mind throwing a buck or reserve pick at the idea that I'm wrong about that.
Broken bat
12:26
Curious why did SFG just drop Estrada last year, and get nothing back when many of this year’s spring write ups have him in top 12 2nd baseman? I get he was injured, but NOTHING back, an outright cut?
Ray Murphy
12:26
New org there now, so it's kind of moot. The projections are of course influenced by the SF-to-COL move. I've drafted him a couple of times, tho not 100% convinced it will work out.
Peter
12:29
Thanks, Ray. 15 team, 6x6, mixed auction. Trying to focus on reliability. 2 questions; 1). Pick 2 of I Happ, N Castellanos, N Jones, L Gurriel or N. Jones; & 2). Thoughts on N Jones having a bounce back? Thanks. Peter
Ray Murphy
12:29
If you're focused on Rel, then Happ and Gurriel have to bubble up.

Nolan rebound? So hard to say, 2023 was so out of nowhere and disappeared as quickly as it appeared. I don't mind speculating on a good rebound, just be prepared to get away from it early if it isn't happening.
buffy, the umpire slayer
12:31
What are the IL ranges for each of the five Health grades? Do you still go back 5-years? If so, it seems to me that 3-years would be better or has that change ever been considered?
Ray Murphy
12:31
They are three years. Off the top of my head, I think the ranges are 30-60-90-120 days.
buffy, the umpire slayer
12:34
Isn't xERA (and FP, xFIP, Sierra, etc.) all pretty much meaningless for pre-season projections? I thought they were designed to let a fantasy managers see what an ERA could be by comparing actual in-season numbers with what a pitchers skills should have - essentially what to expect and not what has actually happened. One would think that projected ERA and xERA should be fairly close prior to the season's start.
Ray Murphy
12:34
Mostly but not completely true. I like to use the two of them as a range, the gap between them can give a nod to a pitcher who has demonstrated an ability to outpitch his skills/do something that the xERA formula doesn't fully account for/pitches in a particularly good or bad park/has a particularly good or bad defense.... all that said, if you see really big gaps between pERA and pxERA on our site, something is likely wrong with the projection.
Dynasty Addict
12:35
H2H QS $500 cap 35 man roster dynasty.  Drop Grayson R.($18) for pitcher Ohtani ($21)?  What to expect from both this year and next three?
Ray Murphy
12:35
I don't know what to expect from either this year, so those prices seem too rich for me. And if I can't answer the question for this year, I really can't answer it for next three.
Dynasty Addict
12:36
H2H QS Dynasty Salary Cap ($260). Have B. Woodruff for $5, G. Rodriquez for $9 and D. May for $3.  Ohtani the pitcher ($11) was just dropped in this league but won't be eligible for IL all season. Is his value for the playoffs and future worth dropping any of these guys?
Ray Murphy
12:36
No. I don't love the price on Grayson right now, and I need to see more from Woodruff before committing... so May might be my favorite here.
Dynasty Addict
12:37
H2H, QS, K/9, required 6-9 starts each week, 35 roster. SP staff is Gallen, Bibee, Glasnow, Webb, G. Rodriquez, Gray, Manaea, S. Gray, May, Steele, Woodruff, Weathers. We have unlimited IL but FA is slim pickings and a large staff is usually needed for the full season.  However on FA is Efflin, Springs, Soriano, Ohtani (P), Festa, Z. Matthews, and Mahle.  Make any moves? I feel I can absorb injuries this year but not positive.  Not sure about future years.  Any suggested moves?
Ray Murphy
12:37
You've got a ton of pitching, I wouldn't drop anyone you hold for any of those FAs.
Dynasty Addict
12:38
In H2H QS K/9 dynasty.  Rank for next three years Z. Matthews, Weathers, Festa, E. Cabrera, D. Thorpe, Shane Smith.
Ray Murphy
12:38
Way too many unknowns to rank these guys for three years, sorry. I'll take Zebby as my favorite tho.
TxWingman
12:39
Ray,
Thank you for taking our questions!!
11 team, Roto 5x5, auction, $260, NL only, Keeper, K-BB, OBP instead of BA.
1.      Next closer ranking. Please list in the order you think could get the closing job first:
·       Kerkering
·       R. Fernandez
·       D. Santana
·       J. Adams
·       J. Estrada
·       Halverson
·       Ferrer
2.      Please rank in the order you would draft these SP’s:
·       Burnes
·       Glassnow
·       Pivetta
·       Gallen
·       Nola
These chats really help my draft prep!!!
Ray Murphy
12:39
OK, lets try someone else...

  1. 1. Adam top of that list, tough to order the rest. Kerkering could have a share right away.
  2. Burnes, Nola, Glasnow, Gallen, Pivetta
Beano
12:41
Thanks for the time Ray!
I have toppers on EDC in my NL 10 team 5x5. Toppers means I can top his auction price for $1 & he's mine.
I had a trade set up to move him but it fell through.
Last year, Acuna went for $61 in our league and I fear EDC will go for $50-$55.
I dislike paying that much for one guy. An injury ruins your year.
At what price point do you say "Enough! If I top the price, I will have a team of $1 platoon bats"?
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