JotCast | March 2026 Capitalist Times Live Chat

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March 2026 Capitalist Times Live Chat

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Roger Conrad

4:16

Hi Leilani. I remember those Great Lakes Hydro days--this company has come a very long way and I think still has a lot of room to grow.

I can tell you that there is no withholding tax on my BEPC shares. And I don't believe there is withholding at this point on the MLP units--though the taxation is obviously more complicated (and attractive at this point from a return standpoint).

The parent and prime mover in the Brookfield empire has always been Brookfield Asset Management, which is headquartered in New York, NY. And the NYSE listings for the parent and children are full, not ADRs.

One thing I've learned with non-US stocks is when in doubt brokers withhold more. But often a phone call with a real person can straighten things out.

Jim

4:24

DO you think Chevron is getting a little high and might be ripe for profit taking due to the war?

Roger Conrad

4:24

Hi Jim. I've always considered the super majors as being about as close to forever stocks as is possible. But I did very recently reduce my TotalEnergies position in CUI Plus slightly--on the basis that we've had a big run and it would likely give back some of its gains if for example peace breaks out suddenly in the Persian Gulf for whatever reason--or if spiking oil prices shock the global economy into recession and trigger a broad market selloff that takes everything down.

I've personally owned Chevron in a DRIP for several decades. The value of my position is about 44X what I initially entered and the annual dividends are roughly twice the initial investment. I would never say never to selling. But considering how I hold it, I'm willing to stick with it on a dip to 170 or so--given that we're in a long-term energy upcycle.

That said, if the stock has risen so far that it's badly overweighted in a portfolio, investors will probably want to take some of the profit--especially from a tax deferred account.

Frank

4:31

I've read that you like NEM in the gold mining space. Are there any gold royalty companies that you recommend?

Elliott Gue

4:31

I recommend Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) in my Creating Wealth/FMS model portfolio.

They're a precious metals royalty and streaming company. Streaming basically just means that they contract with large mining companies targeting base metals (copper, iron, etc) to buy the precious metals "stream" from them at a low price (sometimes just $400 or $600/oz) for gold.

WPM is a little above my buy under price right now and we did recommend selling some on that big spike earlier this year, but it's a quality name and I might look to add some back a the precious metals find a low.

Elliott Gue

4:32

Here's one from my e-mail queue: Q: Some time ago, Elliot posted a chart illustrating that the prices of agricultural commodities often tend to spike along with oil price spikes, although the timing is unpredictable. Currently, DBA appears to be in an uptrend of sorts. Do you have thoughts about this, or is it outside your bailiwick?
--JH

A: Thanks for the question. Yes, I am broadly bullish the agricultural commodities and we actually recommend DBA in one of our trading services, CT Trader. In Creating Wealth and The Free Market Speculator we’ve also been active in some of the fertilizer and seeds names over the past few years – CF Industries (CF) and Corteva (CTVA), for example. We took a nice profit in CTVA last summer, it pulled back sharply late last year; I do wish I’d recommended getting back in as that stock has been very strong again lately.
I also wish it were easier for investors to gain access to these markets via ETFs. DBA is pretty good – decent liquidity and some broad-based exposure to corn, cattle, soybeans, hogs, wheat and sugar. If there’s a general rise in all the Ags, DBA benefits.
There are also some commodity-specific ETFs like SOYB (beans), Corn (CORN) and Sugar (CANE) though liquidity does vary a bit and there are some distortions due to futures contract rolls.

It’s not something we recommend in any of our services; however, personally, I do trade the Ag markets using futures and I’ve followed these markets closely for 20+ years (actually my Dad was a commodities trader back in the 70’s and 80’s, so I’ve followed them to some extent for far longer than that). They’ve even listed some “micro” contracts in recent years that make it easier to trade with limited capital or to scale up or down your position size (they’re 1/10th the size of the big contracts).
One thing that’s compelling about the Ag commodities is that they’re largely uncorrelated to stocks (equities), and in commodity supercycles such as we’re I right now, I think strategies that track a wide variety of (uncorrelated) asset classes and commodities make sense.

4:33

The other thing is that I tend to regard the global investment landscape as a sort of puzzle of which equities are only one small-yet-important piece – so I follow, and trade, some of the other futures markets like Ags and currencies because it helps me keep a finger on the pulse of the market more effectively.
So, apologies for the long-winded answer. But, of our existing services I track the Agricultural commodities and related stocks most closely in my Substack, The Free Market Speculator. I generally don’t write about it as much as other groups because historically there hasn’t been as much interest in the Ags and individual currency markets from

readers. If you all want to read more about these markets, let me/us know and I’ll layer in some additional coverage.

4:36

Q: Thirdly, there was a time once when you were willing to entertain questions not directly connected to energy in these chats. Perhaps that no longer is the case. Nevertheless, I hope you might answer a question about ACN, which has gotten pounded along with many software-related and AI-integration stocks in the present fearful environment concerning AI disruption. If I remember correctly, Elliot did say something about ACN in regard a little while, although it may have been in reference to an advisory I do not subscribe to. (I only subscribe to three.). Anyway, I wonder if you might give me your opinion about ACN, which seemed to have a good earnings report recently. Its swoon reminds me of the deep drop that Major Integrated Oil Companies experienced several years ago on the fear of a huge oil glut. Maybe apples to oranges. Still, any comments?
--JH

4:37

Answer: I actually recommended ACN for a time, but it was a while ago (circa 2018 I think).
I agree that their last earnings release earlier this month was solid though the stock has given up much of its post-earnings pop higher since.
As you note in your question, the big issue here is the software/AI panic that’s underway right now. In ACN’s case, they generate considerable revenue from Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) and the fear is that some of these functions could be replaced with AI or, at a minimum, AI will reduce the amount of work and headcount needed to perform these tasks.
My general inclination is to fade “disruption” narratives like what we’re seeing in the software industry and in names like ACN right now. Markets have a tendency to overestimate disruption in the short to intermediate term.

Examples include the idea, very prevalent at the time, back in the late 90’s and early 2000s that online shopping would “kill” all the brick and mortar retailers. In contrast, what we’ve seen is that the better retailers have actually integrated online shopping and benefit from it.
Then, as you referenced, there was the idea that oil/natgas were going away because of the disruption of electric vehicles and alternative energy sources. Exactly the opposite happened within 2 years and we’re actually seeing that gas is now benefiting handsomely from new tech like AI.

I suspect something similar will happen in software. Some companies may be negatively impacted, but I suspect there will be other software companies that actually benefit by integrating AI tools into their existing applications. Further, the average large-cap software stock is down by over a third since last October/November. I know that Anthropic/Claude have released some interesting coding features since then, but I do find it hard to believe that the fundamentals have deteriorated to the degree that it would merit a 35% decline.
I will be watching these names closely as we enter earnings season next month and into May. So far, there’s been effectively no deterioration in fundamentals apparent in results, so what I am watching is how these stocks react to their releases.

4:38

Do they report strong results and sell off like last quarter or rally on their releases. If it’s the latter, I think that would be strong evidence that a near-term low is in for the group and the bears are leaning out a bit too far over their skis in names like this.

das

4:41

In view of the recent stress on transportation through the strait of Hormuz, and with this near closure perhaps pointing out to European and Asian purchasers the risks of satisfying their energy needs through the Strait via long term contracts, which US Midstreams are most likely to benefit with a shift toward purchasing US exports?

Roger Conrad

4:41

Thanks for that question--definitely a major theme we're addressing in Energy and Income Advisor now.

For anyone who doesn't currently subscribe, just a reminder we are offering a 30-day free trial to EIA--not sure we've done that before. But for all the success all of us have had with energy stocks since the upcycle began about six years ago--and the excitement around the Middle East war--we see the long term factors behind this thing as running for several years more. So there really is still time to build positions in the best in class of the energy sector.

Yes, midstream stocks aren't as cheap as they were in early 2020--at the end of a a seven year energy downcycle. But midstream does best in the latter years of an upcycle. And this sector is still about the most conservatively positioned as I've seen it in 30 years or so tracking it. It's consolidated from 100+ companies to less than a dozen companies that matter. Companies are still cutting debt and high grading assets. Yields are generous.

Roger Conrad

4:43

Continuing the midstream question--companies also have two unprecedented growth opportunities to expand infrastructure: Serving LNG exports and providing fuel to generate electricity to run data centers, power reshoring of manufacturing, run transportation and heavy industry as well as simply to accommodate population growth.

4:46

I think the best midstream stocks to buy now to capitalize on these trends are the larger MLPs. And specifically Energy Transfer and Plains GP are both still trading below our highest recommended entry points. Canadian midstream is also going to benefit from the LNG export boom, with companies like Pembina, Altagas and TC Energy all very well positioned.

James

4:47

I recently read an article that references widening credit spreads as a concerning indicator for a possible recession. I think Elliott monitors credit spreads as well, what do credit spreads tell you currently?

Elliott Gue

4:47

Credit spreads have actually been fairly benign. I watch the ICE BofA Options-Adjusted Spread, which was trading near multi year lows under 300 basis points (3%) back in late February and is hovering at 3.46% or so today. In contrast, we saw spikes over 4.5% during the tariff panic last spring and to near 4% in the summer of 2024 amid the carry trade collapse. In the Smart Bonds service the high-yield junk bond ETF we recommend is down a little under 1% year-to-date. So, my point is that there has been some deterioration, but it's not the sort of deterioration I'd expect if the market were worried about an imminent recession. I look at a rise of 50-75 basis points over 50 trading days as a sort of "yellow" light (we're in that range) but we're not really seeing all that much stress in spreads.

Roger Conrad

4:47

Again, this is a major ongoing theme in EIA. The best bargains are going to change as prices do. And we strongly recommend you observe those upward limits we advice when you take new positions.

lee

4:54

comment on vg for coming euro rebuild of nat gas

Roger Conrad

4:54

Hi Lee. Earlier in the chat I answered a question on Vermilion Energy, a Canada-based producer with natural gas operations in Europe. The stock has already been a direct beneficiary of Europe's search for locally produced natural gas. And I think it will continue to have opportunities there--as well as in Asia, as it has a large production operation in the Montney shale that's proximate to Canada's expanding LNG export infrastructure.

But local production won't be enough. And if we've learned anything from Venture's recent victories in court against European super majors it's that Europe really has no choice but to import a lot more nat gas from US producers. I think that means a lot more upside for the whole US natural gas sector--even as it capitalizes on rising demand for electricity generation. And it's bullish for Venture--I think they'll have all the new contracts they can build for in coming years.

James

4:58

CF has performed incredibly well but MOS has tanked. Can you explain what the two are diverging so drastically?

Elliott Gue

4:58

Two things. CF produces mainly nitrogen fertilizer, which is synthesized from natural gas in the US. Since US gas prices are very low, they have a huge advantage over foreign producers that use oil, coal or gas to produce nitrogen fertilizer. So, essentially, they are benefiting from the spike we're seeing in global natgas prices relative to prices here in the US. MOS is mainly a phosphate and potash producer, which don't benefit from the US-foreign natgas spread to the extent that nitrogen production does. There are also some differences between crop application requirements. Specifically, wheat and corn are grasses, so they require heavy nitrogen applications. And wheat is the dominant crop in the EU, for example. Soybeans actually are capable of fixing nitrogen from the air, but need phosphate/potash applications to thrive. SO, I think you also have the idea that Europe will need to import more US nitrogen for their wheat crop because they can't make nitrogen fertilizer cost effectively.

Don C.

5:00

Hi Roger—do you still like Canadian Telco Telus (TU). The mouth watering 9+% yield seems very attractive.

Roger Conrad

5:00

Hi Don. Telus got off to a promising start when I swapped BCE for it last year but has been largely disappointing since. I think that's in large part the result of management's decision to freeze the dividend at its current rate until 2028 in order to cut debt more aggressively. The payout was well covered in Q4 and there's every indication it will be in 2026 and beyond. It's true the Canadian dollar has weakened over the past month against the USD--so that's hurt our recent returns. And the Canadian telecom market is burdened with 4 national competitors rather than the ideal 3 that promotes stable margins and investment as in China and the US. Those are headwinds to the share price. But so long free cash flow is steady and supporting debt reduction, I'll likely stick with the stock. As you point out, it's pretty much trading at a deep value price.

Guest

5:09

Gents: Is there any logical reason why the DJIA went up 1,125 points today? Thanks. Barry

Elliott Gue

5:09

I don't know how logical it is, but there was some optimism today that the Iran conflict is nearing a conclusion. Specifically, some headlines around the idea that President Trump is willing to end the conflict even if the Strait of Hormuz remains troubled. Let's leave aside the headlines though -- i think the real reason is just positioning. Late last week the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq all broke down below some key technical support levels, including the 200-day simple moving average, which I actually wrote about in a piece on my Substack this morning. We're a little oversold right now. So, basically, the bears started to get a little too giddy on the downside and the headline was the catalyst for some short-covering.

From a shorter-term trading perspective, one pattern I like to watch is when a market, or a stock, breaks below a key, obvious technical support level and then reverses higher in a few trading days. These "failed breakdowns" often lead to at least sharp, short-term rallies in the opposite

Elliott Gue

5:09

direction. Th reason for that is that people start to pile on the short side, buying puts etc. on the breakdown and then get caught on the wrong side of the market when there's a reversal higher. Finally, I'd note that today is the last day of March AND of Q1 2026. So, you can see some month and quarter-end positioning moves as well. We have seen some "one-day wonder" rallies before this year, so we'll really need to see some follow through soon or today's rally will start to look like just noise.

Thomas C

5:11

Hi Elliot...do you know why DMLP hasn't been as responsive as many of your other recommendations? I believe it is 100% unhedged. Besides your model portfolio, which you do write ups on, how should I view the other exploration and production and Canada/Australia portfolio holdings? You don't comment on them so it is hard to know what to do. Also, when do you expect the producers to actually start drilling again and therefore further utilizing the stocks in OIH?

Roger Conrad

5:11

Hi Thomas. We do provide buy/hold/sell advice for all of the coverage universe companies. But we generally will feature in text and in the model portfolio the companies we see having the most upside at any given time.

DMLP is first of all up about 25% year to date--so not too bad. And it's up almost 40% since late 2025 when oil prices were lagging. Rather than follow oil prices directly, shares tend to track the distribution--which follows oil prices. That may seem like a distinction without a difference. But the effect is share price gains/losses tend to lag changes in commodity prices. The most recent dividend was up 2.3% from the year ago level, breaking a string of declines. I expect we'll see another boost announced in late April that will reflect rising energy prices. And that should lead to further gains in DMLP.

Thomas C

5:11

Thank you!

Roger Conrad

5:11

You're welcome. And thank you for joining us today!

Lee

5:12

what is your take profits number for PBF? Thanks

Elliott Gue

5:12

We only recommend PBF in our trading service (CT Trader), so we don't have an official take profit number. I'm eyeing the 2024 highs for a potential exit of at least part of the recommended position. PBF is basically a proxy for California refining margins; I think this summer could be horrendous for gasoline prices, and great for PBF margins, in the Golden State.

James

5:15

Hi, What is your price target for BTU? A price level where you would consider taking some off the table. Currently, the $40 level seem to have sellers.

Elliott Gue

5:15

BTU has been trading in a volatile range. On the downside I'm watching 31.50 or so. On the upside, as you alluded to, we'd need to see a close over $40 to signal more upside. It's a name we only recommend in the trading services so we'll also likely exit the trade if it can't break out above $40 soon.

Frank

5:30

What is your opinion on the Neos MLPI? Looks to have a very high yield. I guess using leverage?

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