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March 2026 Capitalist Times Live Chat
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AvatarElliott Gue
6:42
(I’d assume that VG won’t be as excited about signing new deals with Shell or BP, but who knows).
At any rate, I think VG has priced in some of the near-term improvement in their legal/arbitration risks and the potential for a stronger LNG export market, but I do think there’s longer term upside as their modular LNG export facilities are the fastest to market.
As for oil, the floating storage is being quickly absorbed. In fact the US is basically allowing them to just import a lot of those floating barrels directly now rather than doing the ridiculous dance of multiple ship-to-ship transfers, turning off transponders, etc. And no, even if there’s a quick resolution, I still think you are looking at some time to ramp up exports to full capacity. The better producers (Saudi, UAE, Kuwait) will be the fastest while others like Iraq will take more time.
And, even before the conflict, OPEC wasn’t meeting its production hike targets, so I think there’s a growing market realization that there’s (far) less spare capacity in the world than most people though at the end of 2025.
Dan N
6:43
Given the disruptions due to Epic Fury, have the odds of a Lake Charles LNG export facility improved?
AvatarRoger Conrad
6:43
Hi Dan. You'd have to be Kelcy Warren to know the answer to that one. When Energy Transfer made the decision to shelve the project, their reason made a lot of sense--there were multiple other opportunities to invest in projects that could be completed much faster and therefore generate income much faster, and with roughly equivalent returns. Avoiding multi-year energy infrastructure projects I think makes a lot of sense in the US--now that the Trump Administration has set a precedent for a future Democratic White House or Congress to challenge fully permitted energy projects. I also like the fact that ET projects like Hugh Brinson are in energy friendly states. They had to sweat out keeping DAPL open during the Biden years against a possible federal challenge that never happened. And they've learned.

I think Lake Charles could be revived if a suitable financial partner emerged. And I'm half expecting an announcement next month with Q1 results. But ET is also making plenty of money with less risk.
John P
6:50
Your Canadian recommendations in EIA such as PBA, TRP and SOBO have done well. Not much is mentioned about  Suncore and Enbridge. Will they benefit from the upcycle? Are they worth buying? Thank you guys.  JP
AvatarRoger Conrad
6:50
Hi John. Suncor as a Canadian integrated producer is a major potential beneficiary of the country's emerging energy export boom. The company recently announced a stepped up buyback--a good sign it's maintaining investment discipline. And free cash flow breakeven is now just $38/bbl on WTI. It's trading just above our buy price of 65.

We track Suncor in the Canada and Australia coverage universe, along with Canadian Natural Resources, Vermilion Energy and others--along with risk ratings and buy/hold/sell advice. These coverage universe tables are now posted at the end of every EIA pdf.

Enbridge like Pembina, TC Energy and South Bow is tracked in our MLPs and Midstream coverage universe. The driver of growth is investment. It's more liquids focused than TC. And it's a buy at 45 or less.
Dan N
6:55
Roger, thinking about how to brace for what looks like an increasing likelihood of recession, how recession-sensitive is a residential REIT like recommendation MAA?
AvatarRoger Conrad
6:55
Residential REIT rents and occupancy tend to be stickier in recessions. They were in 2020, when so much of the rest of the economy was shut down. And I expect they will be in a future recession.

The weakness in Mid-American, AvalonBay and others stems from overbuilding that occured just after the pandemic that has resulted in oversupply i multiple markets--especially the SunBelt where MAA is focused. But very little as been built the past few years. So as what's on the market now is absorbed, we're headed inexorably toward a shortage in coming years.

I think MAA and others are pretty much pricing in a recession at this point. But their dividend increases this year is a pretty strong vote of confidence that businesses and balance sheets are still solid. And I intend to stick with them.

I do cover MAA and 79 other REITs in the monthly REIT Sheet.
susan p
7:02
Lots of great energy-related info today--thanks again. Regarding Roger's REIT coverage, a new name caught my attention: Millrose Properties, Inc (MRP), a spin off from Lennar last year in February. Normally such a short track record would be a disqualifier, but it lived within Lennar for years and continues to have significant ties to that builder and others. The yield  hovers around 9% and they've bumped up the distribution every quarter since the spin off. Housing is still stagnant but eventually supply/demand balancing, along with acceptance of mortgage rates that are historically the norm, should help builders' interest in MRP's land acquisition and developments. Meanwhile, its high distribution is hard to ignore if healthy enough. You may not follow it but mentioning seemed worthwhile in case you had any thoughts on it now or in the future. Thanks much
AvatarRoger Conrad
7:02
Thank you for joining us today Susan. I will take a look at Millrose. I do already track ELS and SUI in REIT Sheet from the manufactured housing sector. And I like both of them.

The history of REIT and MLP spinoffs as you know is somewhat checkered. There have been notable successes. But in many cases, the sponsor has offered it to the public at a high price, only to reabsorb the assets at a lower price a few years later.

The fact Millrose' yield is so high relative to ELS and SUI makes me suspicious that they've set the payout at a high level to attract buyers and have put themselves in a box--where they have to keep raising. I will take a deeper look, as that is a very high yield.
susan p
7:07
Brookfield Renewal was mentioned earlier...wondering if Brookfield Infrastructure (BIPC) has ever had enough appeal to either of you to consider it? It's sold off this year and has had a bumpy ride higher since first trading in 2020. Thanks for your thumbs up or down. It has been a great chat -- as usual -- and hope you both can have reviving evenings.
AvatarRoger Conrad
7:07
the thing that's scared me off of Brookfield Infrastructure--which is the C-Corp option for Brookfield Infrastructure Partners (BIP)--is it's always seemed to be a collection of assets, rather than a focused company like Brookfield Renewable. BIP/BIPC's cash flow and dividend growth over time is impressive. And they seem to have no problem raising capital. But their success is far more leveraged to Brookfield Asset Management's ability to keep accessing low cost capital than BEP/BEPC's--which as a focused contract power producer with scale can increasingly operate on its own.

Thanks again for joining us today Susan and for all your questions. Please keep them coming on my Substack live chat, which for those who don't know I host 24-7 on the Substack application for Dividends Roundtable readers.
Frank
7:08
Forget about Epic Foul-Up, these chats are Epic. Thanks, you guys should go get a cold one!
AvatarRoger Conrad
7:08
Thank you very much Frank! I think I will.
Alex M.
7:12
Hi Roger.  Do you think the General Mills dividend is safe?  Are there any other names in the sector that you like at these depressed valuations (e.g., HRL, MDLZ, etc.)?  Thanks.
AvatarRoger Conrad
7:12
Hi Alex. I think there's a decent chance General Mills cuts. The most recent earnings did not cover the dividend. And there's every sign revenue is going to continue dropping next year, even as margins are pressured by higher commodity costs. They may hold the payout. But i would not call it safe.

I guess I'm also generally cautious of the rest of the processed food industry. I'm not sure how far Secretary Kennedy's "Eat Real Food" movement will  be allowed to go by the Trump Administration. But there's a case to be made the industry is facing a secular decline. And in any case, I'm not interested in companies for dividends that have falling revenue until they stabilize. There are enough companies that are actually growing to buy.
AvatarElliott Gue
7:14
Q: XOMO - I just discovered this one, I've never heard you mention it, can you talk about the risk/reward of this one?
A: XOMO is basically an ETF that uses call selling strategies – covered calls and call spreads – to generate additional premium income from Exxon Mobil. I am generally not a fan of covered call type strategies on stocks which I am bullish on because all of these strategies essentially give up upside potential in exchange for near-term income.
The only one I recommend is TLTW, a recommendation in my Smart Bonds service, because it’s generating income by selling calls on long-bonds (TLT ETF), which has been rangebound in recent years. Covered calls are a good strategy for stocks/assets in a trading range.
7:21
Q: About SLB, what drives an investor to buy a stock like this in days past at only ~3% dividend? Usually people will do that in exchange for growth, but this one has been no growth for 10 years or more. I would think this one would then trade with an 8% div to make up for that?
Gil E.
7:21
I'd appreciate your thoughts on Kimberly-Clark and Kenvue. The dividend yield is attractive for a stable business with a history of dividend increases.
AvatarRoger Conrad
7:21
Hi Gil. I think Kimberly Clark has been weak in part because of the Kenvue merger. And they're going to have to prove their case that this is a value adding deal. That said, operating results in 2025 were solid and in line with management guidance. And its core business has generally held up in all economic environments--guidance for 2026 is for revenue growth excluding asset purchases and sales. They also cut interest expense -6.3% during the year. Revenue was slightly lower but that was more than offset by a lower cost of products sold, so gross margin--the more important number--actually rose.

This is a stock I am looking at for potentially adding to Plus. Anyone interested in CUI Plus can contact Sherry 9-5 ET, Monday through Friday by calling 877-302-0749.
AvatarElliott Gue
7:21
A: SLB is definitely more on the growth side. They exited many of their onshore US businesses a few years ago to focus on their core competency (offshore and overseas), which carries better margins.
SLB is in a cyclical business but long-term returns have been outstanding. The stock is up about 290% since the cycle lows in 2020. And, generally, service firms outperform as the cycle matures since their revenue is essentially the CAPEX of producers like XOM, CVX and Saudi Aramco. Our view is that we’re in a nascent new exploration spending cycle and that plays right into SLB’s hands.
AvatarRoger Conrad
7:23
Well that looks like what we have in the queue and from the pre-chat questions. If for some reason we didn't fully answer your queries, please drop us a line at service@capitalisttimes.com and we'll get back to you as soon as we can comprehensively and concisely.
7:25
We'd like to wish everyone a great evening and a very Happy Easter weekend. We'll look forward to chatting with you next month, if not before. Also, looking forward to seeing some of you in Hollywood Florida at the MoneyShow April 10-11!
Thanks again everyone!
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