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March14 Chat
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Brent Hershey
12:06
Hey all! Great to be back here in the Monday noonET time slot. If you're so inclined, mark this down, as I'll be here every week to take us through the season. So much fun to have baseball back, and MLB transactions are not disappointing so far. Let's get started with the questions (reminder that context and specifics helps me give the best opinion/answer I can!)
Rick
12:09
How concerned should Texas be about Jung's future value after losing most of this season and last?
Brent Hershey
12:09
Long-term, I don't think it's too much of a concern -- though with two pretty major injuries in two seasons, I can see where the question comes from. I was among those excited to see Jung debut; the mix of data/work ethic/swing change/opportunity and readiness in TEX had me amped up to see him soon after Opening Day. Still Rangers 3B of the future ... but just might not be until 2023 that we see him in an MLB lineup.
Davidk
12:13
NL Only. Auction.  Jack Flaherty.  Any reason to expect more than 130 innings even if healthy?  Top price, $20?
Brent Hershey
12:13
Oh, yeah, I'd think IP more in the 160-175 range (at BHQ, we have him projected for 174). Health is among the concerns, but I think that's reflected on where he's going in drafts. The flashes have been very good. And it depends on auction dynamics in an NL-only,  of course, but he might get pushed into the low-20s. But 'all things equal', yes, $20 seems like a good cap.
Katman
12:16
Woohoo! I’ve got Corey Knebel. Oh wait, I don’t have Brad Hand or Jeurys Familia. What to do?
Brent Hershey
12:16
You'll be fine, as you've got the best of those three. Personally, not loving the Knebel support staff; add Alvarado to that mix and could be more Corey Cleanups in the 8th inning than we'd like. Will be about health w/ Knebel ... and if he goes down, at this point will be a mad scramble in Philly for saves.
Brent Hershey
12:17
Wow .. just saw the Tatis Jr news (fractured wrist). That will move some markets this time of year for sure.
nb
12:20
So...Odubal is back with the Phillies.  Any insight on the photos he has of the Phillies front office employees?
Brent Hershey
12:20
Mentioned on Twitter that I just don't understand this, on multiple levels. They can't run back the same team as last year, with all of their deficiencies. But for now, sure seems like that's what it will be.
Beano
12:27
Welcome back! I would like your thoughts on Tsutsugo, Alford, Beer, Barrero and H. Ynoa if you would be so kind...
Brent Hershey
12:27
Thanks, Beano; good to be here. Some quick thoughts on these
  • Tsutsugo - impressed with late gains in 2022; should have PT in PIT. OF/1B eligibility in fantasy works. Sneaky late pick
  • Alford - another Pirate with some intrigue, b/c of HR/SB combo. Younger than you might realize. If he wins a starting job in spring, I'm definitely interested
  • Beer - need to see him a back and reports on his shoulder. Obv helped by the DH and if healthy, some power upside there
  • Barrero - best of this lot; I know they just said the other day he'll be SS only, but played OF some last yr too and Senzel is starting out in CF. Big power/speed combo, good mix of opportunity in CIN and experience last yr. I'm in.
  • Ynoa - Wish he had a 3d pitch, but has two very good ones. Likely has a SP role. Enough upside there, tho prob a bit of innings cap. Also in at his current price
Guest
12:32
How do you build a pitching rotation in a 5x5 keeper NL-only league? I have a dynamite keeper hitting roster and 2 plausible closers, but my keeper starting pitching sucks.  Spend a lot on pitching, or load up on hitting and then trade for a starting pitcher?  Some of the top 20 starting pitchers will be kept by other teams.
Brent Hershey
12:32
Best thing I can say is Know Your League. If your keeper list is great (cheap) and the SP you need is likely to be available this year, then budgeting for and spending on it makes sense. If the SP crop is thin this year, then I'd start trading some of that hitting off to gain some more balance before the draft. And also figure in other teams' needs and the drafting history of the league -- as that will move the market, also.
But also remember that in a trading league, you don't need perfect balance coming out of the draft. take what draft gives you, THEN balance it out as season goes along. Easy to say / tough to execute sometimes, but just something to consider. Good luck!
Vince
12:40
  • We all know underlying stats for Aaron Nola were still elite in ‘21. However, could you rank Nola and the following: Ray, Lynn, Giolitta, Davish, Cease in 10-team Roto H2H category league?  Thanks!
Brent Hershey
12:40
I have questions about Nola also, but feel like I comfortably take him before every one of these pitchers, except Giolito. And even then, feel like that's pretty much a toss-up. Personally, I have a tough time trusting Ray given his erratic history and now that he's moved on from where he had his breakthrough. Could be wrong on that; just my perspective. Like the growth potential in Cease and bounce back possibility with Darvish, but am choosing Nola's track record over both this year. And Lynn's age and injury pushes him below Nola, also. Maybe I'm too high on Nola and that would cost me. But I'm still buying into the underlying skills.
Vince
12:43
One more ... how do you go about setting hitter/pitcher split for your auction values? I checked last year's draft $$s of our 10-team Roto H2H category league and it was 62/38. Do you like that ratio?
Brent Hershey
12:43
Yes, that's the best way to approach it; to find out what the league has done historically. You don't have to follow that, of course -- but knowing that split can help you make decisions on how to plan. (Zig when they zag, etc.) Traditionally a 65/35 split is a fair baseline, so yours doesn't look out of whack.
The Straw
12:48
Is either Jeffers or Sanchez worth rostering as a #1 or # 2 catcher in an AL auction 5x5 league?
Brent Hershey
12:48
Sanchez comes out ahead of Jeffers in general. Both have great power metrics, but way too much swing and miss, and thus are a BA liability. I'd much prefer to have either as my #2 rather than #1, though again Sanchez's power history tips the scale in his favor. Interesting to note, though, that Jeffers did NOT  strike out this much in the minors ... so perhaps there's still some minor contact upside for him than what we've seen. Might be squinting too hard ... but on the other hand, worth pointing out that he did not run 30%+ K rates coming up through the system.
Scottie
12:51
Is Albies worth it in the 2nd round? Was last year his peak or do you think he is still getting better?
Brent Hershey
12:51
Think he's absolutely worth it in the second round (both 12 and 15 teamers). Roster construction matters ... for instance if you didn't get steals in R1, he's a great complement to Trout / Freeman, even Vlad. He's still just 25, so could he make even more adjustments? I think so. At the very least feel like he's a great repeat candidate. Being in that lineup help the counting stats, too. No real red flags I see in his profile.
Jon
12:57
What are your thoughts on Mookie this year? Are you scared of the hip?
Brent Hershey
12:57
A bit, especially from a "how much will he run" perspective more than anything. But he's so talented with the bat in general, will be at the top of another elite lineup ... I've got no problem with him at the back of the first round. I'm just not counting on him to pad my SB total as he has in the past; he's more of a BA+power+runs guy for sure. If I draft him, I'm counting double-digit SBs as gravy and will draft the rest of my team accordingly. Maybe I'll be wrong; he is such a fun guy to watch.
Brent Hershey
12:59
Thanks, all ... was a quick hour! Appreciate you coming out. Again, will be here every Monday at noon as long as the questions keep flowing. We'll have some spring boxscores later this week, and I know I have a bunch of drafts upcoming. Best in your prep, and may your player stay healthy!
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