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March17 2020 Chat
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Brent Hershey
12:01
Welp; we're back ... Little did any of us know just how different the world would be when we signed off last week. Most importantly, I hope all of you are safe and taking the best precautions out there. We'll get through this disruption together ... and one of the ways is distracting ourselves with some baseball talk.
12:03
Feel free to fire away with questions on keepers, prospects, 2020 player outlooks, last weekend's ToutWars drafts (I participated in the MixedAuction), whatever's on your mind. But no, I don't have any insight on when this all might get back to 'normal.' We'll just assume it will at some point. Until then ...
Guest
12:09
What about Tyler Mahle?  Ha him as a sleeper pick but probably won't be in the rotation to start the season whenever that is.  Thanks.  I'll hang up and listen.
Brent Hershey
12:09
Think Mahle is a great 6th starter pick if you have the roster room. Some good signs in both traditional metrics as well as the Statcast info that he could be trending upwards. The Driveline influence there in CIN pitchers has to be an intangible plus also. Yes, he needs an injury or poor performance to get his short, but a definite skills-over-roles play at the moment.
Rick
12:10
I try to take potential upside plays late in my keeper league draft, usually pitchers, around picks 250-300. Who is someone you'd be targeting in that area as a dart throw?
Brent Hershey
12:15
Depends on availability - in redrafts I'm drawn to youngsters like Kopech, Dustin May, Whitley, but in a keeper league I assume those guys are off the board. So my next tier is youngish pitchers who maybe haven't got the full opportunity yet or have some positive past skills history ... guys like Mahle, for instance. Other way to go is bullpen skills w/ shaky closer in front ... I've got some shares of Hunter Harvey this spring that I'm happy with. Scott Oberg in this situation, too.
Old Tom
12:18
12 team mixed where we can keep a player in the round previously drafted, so everyone who normally would be a 1st or 2d round selection will be protected. For my final keeper, leaning towards Eloy Jimenez in the 6th round over Mike Soroka in the 23rd round, despite the difference in rounds. (Eloy would probably go in the first or second rounds.)
Brent Hershey
12:18
Yeah, I'd probably lean Eloy in this format, too ... though fully realizing Soroka is a steal in the 23d, even if I feel like he was way over his head last year. I'd consider your other keepers, too ... how deep is your SP, for instance, what's the shape of that (ace or not; mid-tier guys or not, etc.) But think Eloy could be a HR anchor this year with what he produced in 2019.
Dusty
12:21
Thoughts on Wander Javier and what's his upside?
Brent Hershey
12:21
Heh. Upside has taken a hit with terrible 2019 in Lo-A, but also working his way back from nasty injury. OTOH, it's an injury that could affect him long-term (shoulder injury; see Profar, Jurickson). No longer a top-100 guy, and the next season we play will be a big one for him.
sowell
12:24
Which players are you now more interested in now that the season is delayed a month or more? Any guys stand out more than others? Obv there are some SPs who certainly stand to benefit
Brent Hershey
12:24
Yep, the SP injury deluge group will get a bump up with the layoff for sure, and we had an article for subscribers about this exact subject today. Verlander, Clevinger, Scherzer should benefit; as well as Judge/Stanton (though both of their overall injury history still should provide some caution).
nb
12:31
Brett - So who plays a game first, the Phillies or Eagles?  But seriously, how do you think a short/condensed schedule will impact the valuation of injury-prone players, especially pitchers?  For instance, a guy like Kershaw will usually go for a slight discount because you know he's not going 200 innings (say maybe 140).  Now, there are less innings to be pitched anyway.  Thanks!
Brent Hershey
12:31
Phillies. Have to hope for that. But the second question is certainly valid, and it's an internal discussion we're having in terms of our projections (which are built on trying to accurately playing time). I feel like in a case like Kershaw or any other injury-prone player (however you wish to categorize that), they are not going to be "more" healthy (or, in other terms, less of a injury risk) just b/c the season is shortened. They still carry that with them. So I don't think we'll be projecting more % of IP / AB for players who get dinged for that due to an overall health grade (which is based on history). It's tricky ... and really unknown until we have some sense of what the schedule (and how many games in days) looks like.
Phantic
12:35
Hey Brent! What’s the best advice for adjusting rankings for a shortened season? Does anyone jump out to you as this benefiting? Like McCullers?
Brent Hershey
12:35
Thanks for joining! See some of the above; McCullers is certainly in a similar boat as Kershaw in terms of reliability. BUT ... big difference here is McCullers coming back from a specific injury in the past. On the one hand, you could say he gets helped by the delay (more time to recover). On the other, he's not getting game-reps that perhaps TJS guys need to get their feel of control/command back.
And as far as adjusting rankings ... for us I know, that's not going to happen until we have some sort of resolution as far as a re-start date. Then, that will be the relevant question for the whole industry (that projects/ranks players). If we only could get to that point, right ? ...
Ryan spain
12:39
Oscar Mercado or mark canha ops average hr runs rbi sb league 14 team mixed roto keeper league for one year. Who would I keep
Brent Hershey
12:39
I'd lean Mercado, even though Canha is almost guaranteed better HR/OPS marks. Mercado is likely to amass more AB than Canha at this point, which may not be as big of a deal in a vacuum, but 1) AB difference IS important in a league setups as yours and 2) the SB potential for Mercado is important in these SB-dry times. If I knew their AB total would be equal, might see Canha, but Mercado the choice right now.
Brent Hershey
12:40
Just one more question in the queue; don't hold back in asking if you'd like to keep going ...
Guest
12:47
Who wins the Braves' 3rd job?
Brent Hershey
12:47
Right now, would seem like Riley's in the lead, as he hit   up through the shutdown: 10-for-28 with 2 HR. Word of some mechanical adjustments are also positive in this case, especially after the up-and-down rookie season. He would SEEM to be the long-term answer there (read: probably the Braves will give him every chance to win that job). And he should provide moderate power and counting stats for fantasy purposes. Camargo has been fine, but nothing special this spring; he feels like a player who's most valuable to the Braves coming off the bench or filling in at multiple positions. So I think that Riley has the better shot; but if he tanks once we get back, the Braves have a decent option in Camargo.
Brent Hershey
12:49
Well, folks, that looks like a wrap ... you can always find me on Twitter @BrentHQ; happy to answer questions there. Here's hoping that they can be baseball player-related sooner rather than later ... but hunker down with loved ones, and stay safe during this time. We'll be back again soon!
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