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March21 Chat
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Brent Hershey
12:01
Hey all! Thanks for showing up; we're back at it. So fun to have spring games on the telly/devices. The queue is full, so off we go!
Bill
12:03
Hi Brent, always learn something helpful from your chats! I need help with two keepers: NL only, 11 teams, 5x5, standard Rotisserie, 7 keepers max. Pretty savvy owners. A $9 Carlos Carrasco and $11 Gallegos? My inclination is to throw Carrasco back and possibly (?) get him for less, but keep Gallegos, reasoning that even if they're coy with letting him have the 9th inning all to himself, his peripherals should get him near $11.
Brent Hershey
12:03
Thanks for the kind words, Bill! Would agree whole-heartedly with GG>CC, especially if you have no other saves options. And even if you do, GG seems like a great bet to return value there. Injury risk with Carrasco makes him dicey at a $9 keep. Good luck
Dave
12:07
With no notable bullpen signings by the Redbirds, and a delayed start due to shoulder issues, what are your thoughts on Giovanny Gallegos getting the closer job and then keeping it?
Brent Hershey
12:07
Despite my answer to Bill, I do still think STL Svs are TBD. Makes all the metrics/skills sense in the world to slot him in there and let him be ... but reality is that that hasn't been stated yet from the team as far as I know. Also, my understanding is that GG's delayed start was due to "personal" reasons and not an injury of any kind. So I'm not quite "all-in" on Gallegos just yet, though he's my preferred option if I'm taking that shot in STL
Greg
12:14
Morning Brent-I feel baseball in the air now that spring training games have begun. Two quick questions-1) Are you worried about Zac Gallen's shoulder heading into the season? What type of year do you think he has? Also one minor league question How do you rank the 3 minor leaguers for long-term career for fantasy (5x5 league) George Valera, Brayan Rocchio and Austin Martin? Thanks for your advice
Brent Hershey
12:14
Hey Greg ..
1) I'm not too worried at this point, as long as there's no further setbacks. Sometimes there's a tendency to overcompensate as far as reacting to 'news' at this point in spring. Maybe he misses first time through rotation to build up, but that's how I'm assessing it right now. I'm a big fan of his chances this year for the next step up, esp w/ new pitching coach Brent Strom, and have been drafting him as such during the lockout. But .. all bets off on both counts if there's further soreness news.
2) Have them ranked Valera/Martin/Rocchio; but all in the #25-#50 range. So, they're close in rankings.
Kasey
12:16
Is there any plan to show the individual writers Top 100 prospects (as has been done in the past).
Brent Hershey
12:16
Yes, BHQ subscribers can get the six writers' lists that were compiled into the HQ100 in one Excel file, linked off this article (2nd paragraph):
https://www.baseballhq.com/content/minors-2022-hq100-roundtable-part-2
Hallelujah
12:20
Hi Brent. Love these chats. I'm in AL-only league, and how would you rank these SP, all at the same price: McClanahan, F.Valdez, L.Gilbert, J.Montgomery, J.Ryan? And if Ryan is not last in this group, why? Thanks.
Brent Hershey
12:20
This is a nice group to pick from. My rank would be
McClan
Montgomery
Valdez
Gilbert
Ryan
I am, though, more interested in Ryan than some -- think the control and the Ks are for real b/c of his pitch shapes/metrics, even though it's mainly 2 pitches now. Catch me on another day, and I might go Ryan>Gilbert this year. Like Gilbert better long-term, but case to be made Ryan better in 2022. Good question.
WayOffBase
12:25
Will Nate Pearson be up opening day? and with the Jays financially committed to five starters for at least one more season, what are they going to do with him?
Brent Hershey
12:25
Yeah, tough one. My sense is that all (SP+Pearson) are healthy, Pearson starts with the club as a multi-inning reliever -- that on a stuff level, and the fact that many wonder if he won't end up in the bullpen anyway, maybe they just put him there for now. Seems to have the goods to try out his stuff against MLB hitters. But maybe they're more bullish on him remaining a starter, and will feel like doing that at AAA is best long-term. The injury/stamina history is not overly promising. Right now, that's my best guess ... though it's one thing I'm certainly seeking out info/perspective on as spring training goes on.
Kyle
12:31
Hi Brent,

My 5x5 keeper roto leagues are replacing wins and quality starts with innings pitched. Do you have any advice on how to tackle this change? More middle relievers?
Brent Hershey
12:31
These 'multi-inning guys' def get a bump in value. Watch for proclamations or examples of "bulk guys" who come in after an opener. Might be tough to discern here for another week or two in spring training, but early-season usage patterns will help. Cagey vets whose K skills have dropped off might gain a bit of value, too, especially on bad MLB teams. Greinke/ MadBum / Mike Minor / Quintana?? Obv can't ignore ratios OR get load up on these guys, but might be a small market inefficiency of you snag the right one. Love IP as a category, BTW
Billy
12:33
Picking between one of the following pitchers for my last keeper spot. How would you rank them? Bieber, Montas, Alcantara, Ray, Gausman.
Brent Hershey
12:33
Tough to know w/o league size/context, but sight unseen I'd go Alcantara / Montas / Bieber, realizing that if you wiped away my concerns w/ Bieber's health, he's an easy #1.
Jake
12:36
Hi Brent! Is Kyle tucker worth the late first round price tag? In my home league I could get him for $34, or Buxton for $19 + Seager for $15. Would you take the 2 bats or just Tucker? (5x5 redraft) Thanks!
Brent Hershey
12:36
I'd rather take those two, assuming that whatever $1 player you'd "pair" with Tucker in a roster-spot mindset, would not come close the stats that Buxton + Seager would give you. I mean, if we get a 600+ PA year from Buxton (a lot to ask, I realize), and he may well out-earn Tucker straight-up.
Pedro
12:40
I'm a little concerned about Alex Bregman - BF has been too the last couple years and the gap between his HR/xHR and injury issues are a little alarming. However ... is this someone you'd keep with how shallow 3B seems to be?
Brent Hershey
12:40
Yeah, and BF didn't know about Bregman's off-season wrist surgery. Obv, could say either 1) oh, that's the problem, now it's fixed; or 2) I ain't touching a guy coming off wrist surgery. Personally, I lean a bit more towards #2, but can't say that the positional depth doesn't also play a part. Though I'd probably rather throw him back, have a shot at re-acquiring if I needed to, than to hold him as a keeper. What you expect in terms of keepers from the OTHER teams at 3B should play a part, too. If he's the "best" 3B that is likely to be avail in the draft, then, yeah, maybe you hang onto him. Tough call, really.
Steve
12:44
Are you in love with Tesoscar Hernandez like it seems everyone else is? My only reservations are the .24 eye and the XPX that didn't line up with his PX (134/109). Am I overthinking it?
Brent Hershey
12:44
1) Yes.
2) Yes.
I wrote the Forecaster box on him, and was sold the more I dug in. The xHR/HR gap, the multi-year strides in ct%, Barrels, LD ... and that lineup around him (R/RBI). Not sure there's a NEXT step, but feel like a repeat is probable. Maybe I'll be wrong, but there's more positive metrics here than negative.
Corrado
12:48
Thoughts on Whit Merrifield this season? Seems like some are having ominous feelings over his lack of running in Sept
Brent Hershey
12:48
Love the durability and position flexibility. At SOME point, age is going to catchup w/ his SB, which is why there are times when I've passed on him this draft season. In spots where I draft him, I tend to think "downside" on the SB numbers ... IOW, treat him more as a 15-20 SB guy than a 30+ SB guy.
And not exactly the same, but have similar reservations about Starling Marte, too, re: age and SB. Just going conservative on some of the SB projections while I'm team-building.
Mike
12:54
Which players do you find yourself taking regularly after pick 200 and why?
Brent Hershey
12:54
Good question ... will give ya a couple
Bednar - ADP right around 200; trusting the skills here to close although not 100% locked down on that. Often a guy I've been targeting as 2nd saves source
Kiké Hernandez - love 2B/OF elig; think he'll still hit near top of BOS lineup, and power metrics are promising
Jeimer Candelario - often as a COR, but also fine w/ him as my starting 3B if you wait; being overlooked, chance w/ Báez and Tork/Greene later on that the lineup is improved. Really like his recent steps forward
Yazzman
12:57
Hello. I signed on to play in BBHQ subscriber auction draft. I'm interested in knowing the thought process regarding Sv/Hld category and is there an innings pitched limits? Thanks!
Brent Hershey
12:57
There is not an IP limit; Sv/Hld means setup guys (esp on good MLB teams) get a bit of a boost; and makes the committee situations more palatable in choosing. Also, take note during the season on holds trends ... these change from year to year. GL!
Brent Hershey
12:57
Whew ... still a pile in the queue ... will try to keep the next ones short!
Anthony
12:59
In leagues with saves plus holds (both counting for one point each) what qualities do you usually look for in relievers you roster?
Brent Hershey
12:59
See above; but all "named" committee members are a good place to start; plus Devin Williams, obv setup guys, are good ones.
Kayla W.
1:00
Baseball is back, baby! I've missed it ... as well as your chat, Brent. I hope that you're well!

Let's talk catchers. I'm in a keeper league that requires only 5 games to maintain catcher eligibility.

With that said, amongst Varsho, Stephenson, and Kirk, which ONE would you dangle in a trade?

Thanks, as always!
Brent Hershey
1:00
The hype seems biggest on Varsho, which says he'd be the one with the depth you have.
Jeff's Roommate
1:01
Brent! Happy Monday!

I have to make a trade, and I can't decide who to keep between Yoan Moncada and Ke'Bryan Hayes. Both are on cheap contracts for me. Who do you think provides the most value over the next 3 years?

Appreciate your feedback =)

Jeff's Roomie
Brent Hershey
1:01
I like both of these guys ... but seems the more "explosive" skill set AND the better surrounding team by far is Moncada. But not sure you can go wrong w/ info you have right now. Frankly I'd dangle both, take the best offer
Ronnie Bagadonuts
1:03
Let's talk baseball! Brent, I was able to get both Alex Kirilloff and Alec Bohm very late in my draft. How hard should I be patting myself on the back?
Brent Hershey
1:03
Like AK more than AB, though it's a nice combo if going the "rebound" route. And a built-in team name that includes "Alexcs" or somesuch
Pete
1:08
Hi Brent. Can you explain how Mookie Betts has a 7% barrel rate over the last two seasons, but his XPX in that time is 140 & 179. Shouldn't those numbers align more? If I go by HQ skills Mookie looks like a superstar, but his Statcast data tells a different story. I feel like these numbers usually line up, am I wrong?
Brent Hershey
1:08
Fair question ... this has to do with the fact that the hard-hit data we use for xPX pre-dates Statcast and is more subjective than Statcast. But, who is to say where the "cutoff" is for Statcast HH data? They use 95mph exit velo; so is a 94.5 EV not hard-hit? Not that either is wrong, just a diff way of evaluating. I wouldn't read too much into Mookie's discrepancy in this case.
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