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March23 2020 Chat
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Brent Hershey
12:06
Howdy, folks! Quite frankly, impressed to see all the questions waiting for me here ... I'll continue to do these chats as long as there is demand. First off, health and safety to you all during this time of uncertainty and disruption. Second, we all need the diversion right now—and my guess is that's why you're here. I'll take some extra time to answer your questions thoroughly, and do my best to get through them all. Like you, I can't wait for things to get back to normal. But for now ... let's dive in!
Darren
12:12
What are the chances Hunter Harvey closes in Baltimore?
Brent Hershey
12:12
I've long been a Harvey fan, since I saw him live in short-season ball that year he was drafted in 2013. All the injuries questioned my confidence ... but wow, when I saw him live in Sarasota for an outing earlier this month (geez that feels like MONTHS ago), he looked poised, and stuff was great (FB/sharp CB). It was right around then when his name surfaced again as a poss closer. It's still a bit of a long-shot -- injury history and experience due to that  -- but if anywhere, could happen in BAL. Maybe a 33% play at some point this season (assuming one); but I'm all-in rooting for him.
Fred
12:15
Which top prospects would be your first pick for a dynasty league?
Brent Hershey
12:15
Pretty much what our HQ100 top prospect list is built for, BaseballHQ subscribers can find it on the site as well as in our Minor League Baseball Analyst. Wander Franco far and away at the top; other names in our Top 10 include Gore, Robert, Rutschman and Whitley.
Guest
12:21
Hi Brent! I'm in a 10 team NL-only dynasty league that allows 9 keepers each year. In general, is it a better strategy to go into the auction with the best talent at whatever price (Bellinger $30, deGrom $28, Castillo $17) or try to keep as many low priced keepers (Rosario $1, J. Bell $3) as possible? Additionally, what is your take on signing payers to contracts - avoid, trade or get at the best price possible?
Brent Hershey
12:21
Q1 ... It's a mix for me; best case you take some from both. Depends a bunch on how your league plays it. Qs to consider: 1) How much elite talent is in your auction every year? 2) Where do your competitors fall in this spectrum? 3) How much success have you had in the past in acquiring both high-priced and bargains in the draft? etc, etc. I will say that many years ago, Was a low-priced guy only ... but have been keeping higher priced talent more often recently.
Q2 ... I also generally avoid long-term contracts except for the most obvious cases. Always figure that $ is better spent in the current draft. Also avoid tying up LTC on closers given their volatility.
Katman
12:25
Ke'Bryan Hayes was sent down just as the suspension hit, but there were some rumors that Pittsburgh might sign him to a long term deal and bring him up to start the season. Clearly Colin Moran is no big obstacle.
Sorry -- question is what you see for Hayes in terms of 2020 playing time when play resumes. Seems to me he could benefit from some more AAA ABs.
Brent Hershey
12:25
I'm not as convinced that Hayes does need more AB in the minors -- had a full year in AAA last year, defense is pristine and ready and there are some foundational hitting skills present. So if it were me, I'd be inclined to bring him up sooner rather than later, and see if the power can develop while he's facing MLB pitching. I do feel for now at least he's a better real-life than fantasy player. Also if I were Pittsburgh, I wouldn't feel the need to rush to a LTC; I'm not convinced right now he's that type of foundation piece. Maybe he gets there, and then you do it. But why lock that up early?
gravy028
12:25
Thanks Brent for doing these!  Let’s talk baseball!
Brent Hershey
12:25
Of course!
Shawn
12:32
Hi, BHQ subscriber here drafting tonight. My 2 thoughts that projections may not be showing (playing time influence) is 1) a boost to thé Clevinger, Snell, Paxton type back from injury. 2) a boost to some elite prospects that could play right away (Adell, Pearson, Gore, Bohm type) and also no inning limits To Paddock, Pearson. On thé right track? Any other trends or tips that you reccomend? Keep up the great work and fingers crossed for some kind of baseball season this year!
Brent Hershey
12:32
First off, appreciate the patronage and the shout out. Like all, trying to do our best in uncertain times.
On your two thoughts: 1) Would agree, smaller injury type of players should not necessarily be discounted; those 3 are great examples of that. 2) I think the jury is still out on the prospects. Reason being let's assume we get rolling again at some point. I think as with all other aspects of team/roster mgmt, MLB squads will take different approaches from each other. In SD's case, sure, maybe Gore gets a shot earlier, given they made Tatis part of their lineup from Day1 in 2019. But will TOR and/or PHI take that same tact? So hard to know ... and SD might not even. So I think maybe take a few shots on guys like this if you feel inclined, but don't expect this implementation to be the same across the board.
Think that also goes for innings limits -- Pearson, Spencer Howard (PHI). Makes logical sense to have these guys up in a shortened season scenario to you and I, but how will club handle? Big questions
Rick
12:36
Hi Brent. My keeper league of 10 years is transitioning to Saves plus Holds this year. The price of closers in my league has always been high. Is it viable to get several hold guys late in the 25-round draft, or do you need a saves anchor? Who are some guys you'd recommend targeting?
Brent Hershey
12:36
Without knowing your league's "culture", I'd say that absolutely focusing on holds only could be a viable strategy -- but you still have to balance things correctly. I'd think this change would give you more confidence in picking up second-tier closers who might get bumped out of that chair, but remain setup guys and still have value. So, maybe Colome, pick-a-reliever from TAM, etc. They are all likely going to come cheaper than the high price of closers. Good luck!
Dr Dave
12:38
I'm just guessing, but if this delay lasts until July, a complete new schedule would have to be made to keep division teams playing each other.  Is that your take as well?
Brent Hershey
12:38
Yeah, one of the unknowns for sure, and right now, hard to figure where that falls on the priority list. But I too would probably lean towards them re-doing the schedule for the reasons you mention. Likely too depends on if they extend the regular season or not. If they are stopping at the "normal" time, then might not be worth the effort to just change from the simple "play out the original schedule" edict.
gravy028
12:41
What’s the status on Yasiel Puig?  Read the Giants May have interest, and there was an old article about the Marlins possibly being interested.  There were also rumors of the Rangers, though knowing how they operate, I will believe it when I see it.  Will he sign this month, as some reports suggest, despite MLB’s current (non-)operating status?
Brent Hershey
12:41
Like last year's late-signing debacle, I just don't have a good feel for this. Crazy to me that he hasn't found a job yet; is there anything that is happening now that would make teams (or him) negotiate terms more than three weeks ago? We can all point to a couple of teams where he would SEEM to be a great fit ... but here we are. From a fantasy perspective, do think it's worth a flyer at some point, even without a team. Too good of a player to just have in limbo.
Splash
12:46
Do projection models adequately account for pitcher pickoff moves? Take regression darling Zach Plesac - could he have outperformed his peripherals last year in part by shutting down the running game and ballooning his strand rate by keeping runners close? If so, maybe less of a regression candidate than meets the eye - what do you think?
Brent Hershey
12:46
Interesting question ... I don't believe our proj model accounts for this, and would be surprised if other models do (though maybe I'm wrong). It's a fair question, and hypothesis (maybe less regression than meets the eye), but my guess would be the affect would be minimal. On the other side of things, you have Thor's known inability to keep runners close. Extra bases via SB def hurts your run expectancy, etc. Actually might be an interesting research topic (if one has not been done already).
Jack
12:49
Thoughts on Michael Kopech as a post-hype sleeper heading into 2020?
Brent Hershey
12:49
That ST clip from a couple days before things shut down did nothing to dissuade me from this exact (perhaps unsubstantiated) viewpoint. But seriously, the fact that he was locating his stuff in that inning is consistent with the strides he had made in both AAA and MLB in the summer of 2018, right before the injury. Then the fact that his velocity was all the way back is exciting. Yes, risk there, but I'm happy with several of my Kopech shares already, and there may even be more once we get this season back on track.
Jordan Lyles
12:51
Is my curveball upgrade going to stick? Still looking like I might be a decent SP sleeper in AL only formats?
Brent Hershey
12:51
Yeah, worth considering in a AL-only format; though more as a league-average pitcher than a legit upside breakout candidate. Which is fine, especially if your competitors disregard him. He's made some nice strides.
John
12:55
I'm in a keeper league (keep six for this year). With a potentially shortened season, is it more valuable to have two aces (Gerrit Cole and Shane Bieber) or keep a player like Jose Ramirez, despite having Anthony Rendon at 3B? (We have two UTIL spots, no MI/CI).
Brent Hershey
12:55
Not exactly sure I see what the difference is w/ a shortened season, especially in this case (neither of Cole/Bieber has an injury history, etc). Yes, unless the league is really shallow, I'd keep those two horses as the leg up they give you is going to be more than trying to keep both Rendon and JRam. The K combination, and ERA/ratio anchors those two would provide give you LOTS of flexibility in filling out the rest of your roster (on both the hitting AND pitching sides)
Richard
12:56
Hi
Brent Hershey
12:56
Hi!

(Also using this as a one-question warning ... the queue is about empty.)
Richard
12:58
With a certain shortened season & Jays already saying no IP limit, does Nate Pearson start in the majors?
Brent Hershey
12:58
Touched on this earlier ... in theory, yes this makes sense. But it's really a wait-and-see for us, as we don't know all the factors that are really in play here. So does it make this a better chance than if we were on a "normal" schedule? Certainly ... but don't have enough info to say it will be so for sure.
Brent Hershey
1:01
Alright, folks ... great to chat with you for the past hour! And love the optimism here; we're all holding out (including yours truly) for a shortened season; continue to think that way! Again, I'll be here as long as there are questions next week; same day/time (Mondays/noon). Follow my work on Twitter @BrentHQ; consider a subscription to BaseballHQ.com, where we've got a treasure trove of spring preview content and some new "hiatus" projects we're working on to get you even better prepared for that shortened season to come. Right?!! Again, stay safe and be well. Thanks and see ya next Monday!
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