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March30 2020 Chat
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Brent Hershey
12:04
Good day, all ... In an alternate universe, we'd be freaking out about Aaron Nola's opening-day debacle or something. Instead, far more weighty measures are on our minds. Best of health and smarts to all those out there fighting COVID-19, and the rest of us trying to keep sane during these uncertain times.
12:06
But let's instead talk some baseball (or whatever you want), even if for just a little, for some respite. Several questions in the queue, but I'll hang here for as long as need be....
Guest
12:12
If MLB chooses DOUBLEHEADERS with 2 back-to back SEVEN inning games to play catch up......is there a way for a fantasy league to adjust the Quality Start.category to make it work?
Brent Hershey
12:12
Yeah, this was my first thought when the 7-inning game idea was floated. Several things come to mind ... first is it depends on the flexibility of your stats service. Do they have the ability for you to create custom categories? I'd think that if we assume we get back to the season this year, that EVERYONE involved in the fantasy industry will be extra flexible in meeting customers' needs/requests. But still the volume of the ask and technical hurdles for something like that will dictate if it's available. But of course the question remains how do you score 9-inning games vs 7-inning ones? IOW, not ALL the games will be 7 innings. And then you'll need to decide as a league how to handle. IF they go to a lot of 7-inning DHs, would create some interesting scenarios for sure.
Really good question that we just don't have an answer for right now.
Bob
12:17
One silver lining to this mess is that we all have the opportunity to build a unique "short season" roster. It will require a differennt strategy than any of us have used in previous "regular season" years. Data aside (for a brief moment), what's your gut telling you about loading up on pitching vs. loading up on offensive players, in a short season? You touched on this briefly last week and I wanted to know if you additional thoughts. Thx
Brent Hershey
12:17
Good way to look at it ... not sure I have any big revelations, though if anything I'd probably lean towards investing in known hitters a bit more, b/c of 1) projections seem more stable yr over yr; 2) I do wonder about pitchers being a bit more injury prone with the start / stop / start of the season. Hope we get to that point.
Rich
12:22
Hi Brent.  For my last 3 SP in a 12-team H2H, I'm deciding among Mikolas, Archer, Happ, and Josh James (I also have Kershaw, Giolito, Gray, and Lynn).  Who's the odd man out?  I'm leaning toward James, as he could lose the 5th starter spot to Pruitt, but I'm tempted by his upside.  I could also roster all four and cut Willie Calhoun. . . .
Brent Hershey
12:22
I would probably cut Happ in favor of keeping James even though his role is still inquisition. JA's age and declining skills make him least likely for me to regret cutting loose (even with the Yanks). That's a lot of pitchers, and your first four are very solid. I'd hang onto Calhoun over those guys for sure.
PAUL.NUGENT
12:25
Can Eflin stay in starting rotation all year?
Brent Hershey
12:25
Yeah, I think he can, though will he? Interested to see how new pitching coach Bryan Price deals with him; Eflin went back to a more pitch-to-contact guy late in the season with some success. If he sticks with that approach, prob fantasy appeal takes a bit of a hit, but could be an innings-eating, back of rotation type. Spencer Howard to come at some point, though he's more likely to replace Velasquez/Pivetta 5th starter type.
Spin
12:28
There has been a lot of talk about how a late start to the season will affect projections of playing time and player value, like injured pitchers back before losing any previously projected PT. But, how would MLB expanding rosters to squeeze in more games (double-headers and playing on what would have been non-travel days off) affect PT, i.e., reducing the PT of platoon players, and reducing the overall innings of younger pitching staffs or teams using openers?
Brent Hershey
12:28
I think that absolutely will be a consideration— bigger rosters and trying to cram as many games in as possible will muss with PT for some. Few days off to recover and a bigger bench will prob lead to more players getting smaller amounts of PT. I know for us at BHQ, we'll have to have that discussion about assigning PT if this comes about. A discussion of course which I'd MUCH rather prefer than the alternative (IE, no season at all).
Brent Hershey
12:29
I am appreciating the optimism here, though, where shortened season >>>>>>>>>>>> the alternative.
Mike
12:34
Hey Brent!  What one starting pitching prospect do you think has the best chance to break camp with their team due to the delayed season? Thanks for all your great work at HQ!
Brent Hershey
12:34
Thanks for the props; appreciate it. In some ways this would be much like the "when does prospect X get called up?" questions during a normal season. Best we can do is try to eval who the MLB team thinks is 'ready' -- but reality is that there's so many factors to consider, and if often comes down to an injury, or unexpected poor performance. But that's not your question. :-)
I do think there might be something to the Spencer Howard (PHI) rumbles. He's on an innings limit, the Phils are a team who maybe could benefit from a shortened season (as far as making a playoff push); so far in the minors he's blazed through. Nate Pearson has a lot of similar characteristics, I think. he'd be another to watch.
jackb
12:40
In a keeper league, players will have 40 dollar values on your team for this.  What about the players drafted this year, who will have much smaller values.  How do you think this will turn out since we will have players with small values, because of the short year, and , and the larger values?
Brent Hershey
12:40
If I'm understanding your question correctly -- yes, keeper league salaries are likely to be affected for those leagues who haven't drafted yet due to the shortened season. Assuming those parameters, there will be some gems in there for sure. Will be an interesting choice for those owners to possibly make that this year or future years decision earlier ... or at the draft table. Again, see what we have to work with for sure.
Maurice
12:42
Hi Brent! I'm thinking about trading Judge in a points league, my team is competing but I always keep an eye on talent acquisition when possible. Is Luzardo and Luciano enough of a return? Thanks for doing this!
Brent Hershey
12:42
As long as you realize that Lucianco is far away, this seems like a good deal given Judge's injury history. Big Luzardo fan (even as a pitcher) and this is increasing your talent base (if your roster can backfill for Judge, obviously).
Retros
12:44
Baseball Reference is simulating the season, have you considered a simulated fantasy league based of some simulation tool?
Brent Hershey
12:44
We have considered this and have begun to explore. Would be great to have this to fill the time. Obviously if the sooner the better to start it up; but no firm commitment yet.
Mike
12:44
Funny, I grabbed Pearson as a last round flyer in two of my leagues...we will see!  Thanks Brent!
Brent Hershey
12:44
Yes, stashes like these could be fortuitous! Thanks for the question.
Rich
12:47
Thanks, Brent.  That makes sense (James over Happ), except that Happ claims to have adjusted his delivery, and the spring results were stellar (13 innings, 7 hits, 1 walk, 16 strikeouts, 2er, 1 homer).  Still think I should drop him for James?  Happ was great in 2018 before a bad 2019. . . .
Brent Hershey
12:47
Yeah, I'm interested in that tweak, but find it difficult to trust half a spring training stat line like that (small sample; uneven competition, etc). I mean, it's close, and you can make the case for Happ over James. I would just rather roll the dice on JJ's skills.
JT
12:50
Is the Miguel Andujar stash gambit dead?
Brent Hershey
12:50
No, I don't think so ... I assume you're referring to some of the Yankees getting healthy? There are a lot of guys who have gotten nicked up often on that team, and the fact that they're moving Andujar around some bodes well for him being that "next" guy. I guess if you've not drafted yet, you can see what happens when we get back ... but if you have already, I wouldn't rush out to drop him I don't think.
Guest
12:55
Hey Brent our mutual friend in Oakland says hello - missing baseball very much. I need to decide on how much to go in on for a 2B in a league, and deciding between Biggio or Villar for around $10 -$12. OBP not AVG - which would you rather have?
Brent Hershey
12:55
Well, give my best to our mutual friend (and I think I know to whom you refer!). In an OBP league, I definitely prefer Biggio, although he's much more risky in a BA league. Excellent walk rates throughout his minors career makes his 2019 MLB rate and OBP more believable to me. (And money where my mouth is:  ROTISSERIE: 2020 Tout Wars Mixed Auction — Taking it online ). Had Villar a couple places last year and rode it happily, but year over year volatility has me a bit wary of his 2020.
Brent Hershey
12:56
Queue is dry; but happy to hang for a couple more minutes should anything strike ...
Gage
1:02
Opinion of how keep leagues should handle a short season?  We are considering not advancing contracts unless we play at least 100 games.
Brent Hershey
1:02
Yeah, just the MLB service-time issue, this one will come up in keeper leagues w/ salaries. I believe the best course of action on this is to discuss/decide/vote on it NOW in your leagues, and I like the stipulation above, as far as making it clear-cut. Assuming you're going to address it, so important to make those decisions now, when everything is still in limbo. Situation changes drastically once we have a start date, etc. Good issue to bring up.
Fred
1:06
What happens to the loser of the OAK 2b battle?  And who do you think it will be?
Brent Hershey
1:06
In normal times, I think the loser ends up on a different org (Barreto, Mateo, Kemp out of options). But ... expanded rosters, do the A's just keep the loser? My guess right now is Mateo is the odd man out, but that could change of course.
Brent Hershey
1:08
Thanks, all ... great questions and again, appreciate the optimism! We need that right about now. Like I said last week, plan to be back next Monday at this point. Follow me on Twitter @BrentHQ; also our BHQ site coverage has been reduced, but we have a fun series starting tomorrow if you're so inclined. Thanks and stay healthy, all! Talk soon ...
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