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May17 2021 Chat
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Brent Hershey
12:02
Hey-o! Happy Monday ... and if YOU'RE not on the IL, consider yourself lucky. Buncha goodies on tap already ... if you're just joining, remember that supplying a brief context (lg size, player pool, keeper/one year, etc) helps me out with an answer. Let's go!
Ron
12:06
Hi Brent, playing the deep league wire. What are odds of K. Allard and/or Kaprielian making a meaningful rotation impact (a string of 5 IP starts) and Heredia playing everyday productive role in ATL?
Brent Hershey
12:06
Feeling here is that between the pitchers, Kap a better bet to succeed as a starter than Allard for this year. The Allard story has just come out of nowhere, given his pre-2021 struggles. Just wonder if TEX keeps him in the pen now that he's found success. And I was also intrigued by Heredia there before he got hurt. I'd give him another week if poss to see how much ATL plans to play him ... but I know in deep lgs, you need to take the plunge early. Prob worse specs out there.
Greg
12:07
Time to dump Castillo?
Brent Hershey
12:07
Maybe I'm stubborn, but not me yet. And I get the pain he's inflicted; track record is just too good and likely your investment too high for it to make sense now.
Buff
12:11
Deep NL only keeper league, 5 man reserve, do you see any reason to hold on to the following: Moniak, Kingery, Brinson?
Brent Hershey
12:11
With that short of a bench, I'd likely just pick out one, and that one at this point would be Brinson. Guess you could stretch it to include Moniak, who at least showed a bit something in spring and in his brief and could squeeze into a role longer timer. Kingery just looks lost up there now, and could well go down as one of the biggest 'misses' of my prospecting career. Safe to cut for the time being.
Zarco
12:16
Hey Brent, could you give me how expendable my bottom 5 players are? 1 of Carlson, Bader and Ian Happ is my UTIL and the other 2 are McClanahan and Montas. It's a daily12 tm mixed h2h 6 cats standard 5+obp. For some context, if for e.g. Votto/Kelly comes back from IL scorching or maybe Clint Frazier/Dalbec starts breaking out. How soon should I be jumping the gun? I know it's not specific who vs who but would love to know about your thought process. There's a lot of fomo and managers are pretty quick on the next potential big players so I've been feeling pressure to churn more too.
Brent Hershey
12:16
Think that last phrase is important ... don't feel pressured into churning if that's not what you feel good at, or the need to. I know he's started well, but have questions on whether Bader is helpful in a lg like yours; Carlson >> Happ at this point, also. I'd prob also be careful with McClanahan in a shallower lg like this; has already shown he gives up runs even though the stuff is super, and will likely always come with that "will he pitch 5 inn" question for this season. Of course wish Montas was more consistent; don't think he's an auto play every start at all in your lg. Good luck!
Cindy L.
12:19
Hello! I love Brad Kullman's Market Pulse columns. This week, he mentioned Harrison Bader as a possible target of interest. I know that Bader has 1st down pedigree and  strong contact skills. What are your thoughts?

Thank you for taking the time today :-)
Brent Hershey
12:19
Though just knocked off Bader in the prev question, he is someone of interest in more standard leagues (not sure your context). But ... is some of his early returns of better contact stick, the HR/SB numbers are likely to go up, just from having better AB and being on base more. That's what I'd be monitoring, as previous to this year, was K-ing at a rate that held his other stats back substantially. Young enough to improve.
Rock
12:23
With reports indicating Michael Conforto may be heading to the IL soon, I will need to pick up an OF. Rank these available options for an OBP roto league: Schwarber, Beaty, A. Garcia.
Brent Hershey
12:23
I rostered Beaty in several places this weekend -- yes, it's LA, and they move guys around a lot, but it's also LA, where these Muncy/Chris Taylor/McKinstry types seem to grow on trees. A lot of positive metrics early on for Beaty if he plays. Might be safer to go Garcia (improved bb% these past 2 years) slightly over Schwarber, though.
Bobby
12:27
Happy Spring time! Brent, I hope you're well!

This isn't the case for the Dodgers, unfortunately. So many injuries!! But they keep rolling out replacements. The latest is Matt Beaty, who looks great swinging the stick. Worth a flier?

Thank u!!!
Brent Hershey
12:27
Addressed above ... but yes, I'm interested esp in deep leagues, on the short look so far.
Luke S.
12:29
Big KC fan! Excited about the future of the Royals' pitching, with Lacy, Lynch, and Kowar. Brent, who do you like best right now?

Have a great week, everyone!
Brent Hershey
12:29
Despite getting hit hard in his 3-start shot, I still like Lynch the best, though Lacy is a close 2nd. Have seen Lynch in the minors and like his combo of velocity/arsenal/command from the left side. Think he'll figure it out and be a #3 with some #2 potential. Kowar is 3d on this list, but should pitch in the rotation for a while, too. KC could be fun to watch in several years.
Beano
12:31
Will Daza continue to get regular PT in Colorado? Is he a worthy FAAB target?
Brent Hershey
12:31
Really can't sit him after the week he's had. Wonder a bit about how much secondary skills (HR, SB) are there, but he should be on our radar, if only for a short-term commitment to see if we can learn more.
Guest
12:31
hi NL only. any of these free agent hitters have short term or long term upside:
12:33
young, connor joe , farmer, b miller, pillar, herrera or lee.  sorry i pressed ruturn too fast before.
Brent Hershey
12:33
Short-term, Herrera is worth a shot, and Pillar maybe a tick behind also. If Lee is Khalil, then he's probably the best chance for long-term upside .. but still a good bit of polish to be had at AAA.
Olson
12:38
I've been crushing the ball this year - my statcast page is basically all bright red. I've cut my strikeout rate by 10%. Current babip, ba and xba in line at around 270 but my projection still says I'm the same old 250/330. Does it not look like a I'm finally taking that next big step?
Brent Hershey
12:38
Love love love that you're making better contact even beyond your pre-2020 level, and that obv will be the key to unlocking the next level for both BA and power. Our projection system takes care not to overreact to 130 AB, though it's something we constantly monitor. Thanks for justifying our optimism in the Baseball Forecaster...
Stubborn Ross
12:43
Long-term keeper question. Need help settling a discussion!

We have two roster decisions to make soon. We're trying to decide between Jose Berrios and Ian Anderson for SP and between Logan Gilbert and Jordan Groshans for prospects. With the next 5 seasons in mind, which two should we keep?

I'm thinking Anderson/Gilbert, but my partner thinks Berrios/Groshans are better investments.

Who's right?! :-)
Brent Hershey
12:43
Ooooo, put me smack in the middle, eh??? I'm going Anderson/Groshans, and not just b/c that's a cop-out w/r/t your "discussion." The SP one is close; I think at this point in their careers, though, Anderson has a tinge more of a ceiling than Berrios given age, skill set, etc. Like them both a lot, though. The prospect one isn't that close ... give me the bat over arm in most cases, including this one. Again, Gilbert is a great keeper in general, but the hit rate on a bat-first MIF who might move to a corner is better than a starting pitcher with 4 MLB innings under his belt.
Ron
12:45
Hi Brent, in a power-centric points league, who has more value ROS, Trevino or Higashioka?
Brent Hershey
12:45
I'd go with Trevino, even though he won't match Higa's power. I think in a points league, Trev's superior hit tool makes up for it.
Buff
12:49
I need a tutorial on how what to look for on the Statcast pages of Baseball Savant and Brooks Baseball. Where should I go?
Brent Hershey
12:49
Great question. Look up Alex Fast on Twitter (you should be able to do that through the web even if you don't have a twitter account). At some point he put out some Savant tutorials that were helpful at different points. Searching Alex's name and Baseball Savant tutorial also might bring it up.  Think there's also a Savant tutorial Twitter feed that might have some things. Down the road, you could also come or register for one of BaseballHQ's First Pitch Forum events (Arizona in fall; Florida in teh spring). We often run a session that gives some simple tutorials for these online tools. Good luck!
Rich
12:51
Hi Brent.  Who do you think is the primary closer going forward in SF:  Tyler Rogers or Jake McGee?  Same question in Cleveland:  Emmanuel Clase or James Karinchak?  Thanks for your help, as always!
Brent Hershey
12:51
Clase for sure in CLE; and still feel like McGee in SF, though Kapler is likely to shift this one back and forth some. His early-season usage of McGee was heavy, and I think that's the reason Rogers is getting some more opps there.
Jerry
12:52
Thoughts on Eovaldi ROS? The xERA seems encouraging...
Brent Hershey
12:52
Health still his biggest obstacle, but yes, skills-based ERA is nearly a run better than current ERA. Ride it.
Chaz
12:53
Is Dominic Smith showing signs of turning it around? Posted a .400/.438/.467 slash over the past seven days but most of that came against Baltimore.
Brent Hershey
12:53
I always prefer to take it out to 14 days when I can ... but yes, nothing too drastic that I see on Dom's slow start. Meaning: I expect his play to get better here soon.
Patrick
12:57
Do you think that Joe Musgrove's last start vs STL can serve as a springboard back to what he was doing before the no-hiitter? It's been a bumpy ride since then.
Brent Hershey
12:57
Def been inconsistent since the no-no. Walks still concern me a bit (4 in 5 IP vs STL). Looking at the game logs, have to wonder if the "elevated" pitch count — in terms of how different that one game (112) sticks out with the rest (avg 87 pitches) afterwards is playing a role. Not getting blasted, YTD skills at a career high level ... think he'll be fine.
Buff
12:59
Is Corey Dickerson no longer more than empty average and some runs scored?
Brent Hershey
12:59
Power def taken a hit; low FB% and HR/F contributed. Should bounce back some, but yes, it's mostly a BA profile at this point.
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