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May2_2025 BHQ Chat
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Ray Murphy
12:01
Happy Friday, everyone! We've reached May... time to get a little less patient with underperformers, much like the Rangers are modeling with Jake Burger. Let's get into the queue....
Stratford Nicos
12:05
Guro Ray...Give me the lo-down on this dude. 2024 finish = .224/.278/.379 currently .183/.295/.327@ Chisox. Robert Jr. earns, no, is paid 8.3 Mil/yr thru 2027. Can't say the trade value has improved! He's 27 & appears healthy. He can't get much more low down. What & where do you see in his future?
Ray Murphy
12:05
You don't seem to appreciate the fact that he's returned $27 in value (AL-only) so far this year. That's actually a pretty neat trick while rocking a .183 BA. His ct% has been sketchy for a few years now, but he's walking more this year (or maybe getting pitched around), and 24% hit rate says there's bad luck involved. But still the xBA is .198. Bottom line: if he makes even a little more contact, he'll likely be just fine.
Don Dringus
12:08
Are we seeing a big step from Shea Langaliers? Increased contact, hard hit, tho there are more ground balls and power looks down because of it
Ray Murphy
12:08
Yeah, you summed it up nicely.... more contact is great to see, but so much of it being on the ground is preventing any gains. xBA is spiking (.282), though as a slow catcher he may have trouble living up to that. The ct% seems likely to stick at this point, could still have a big season if he gets the ball in the air some more.
Don Dringus
12:10
What is wrong with Riley Greene? It's early but the bb% is down and most of his other skills have regressed. His baseball savant page looks awful for 2025
Ray Murphy
12:10
DIdn't mention this with Robert, but this point applies to both: I tend to be more patient with slow-starting hitters who play in cold weather venues. Seems like every time I look at a DET game, the players are all wearing earmuffs and those fake collar/scarf things. Greene's been  hitting well over the last 10 days or so, it just takes a while for the cold start to wash out of his numbers. I think he's fine.
Dave
12:12
Hi Ray,                                              I am in a 14-team mixed rotisserie 6x6 league which awards waivers each week in inverse order of the standings.  I have been fairly fortunate so far due to some bold chances with young players (Wood, Crews, Dominguez, Kurtz, for example), but injuries and normal attrition are challenging basic replacements since I am generally last on the waiver wire.  So, I obviously have to be aggressive and try to be ahead of the others.
If I want to acquire the best options going forward, I can't wait for them to be called up.  I can sit for a little while without production, but when is it time to pull the trigger on guys like Roman Anthony or Jordan Lawler who seem to be the best bets to hit the ground running?  Or any other relatively "sure" shots"?
Ray Murphy
12:12
It's obviously situation specific, both on the individual player and your league rules/team needs. I think the time is about now for Anthony and, say, Bubba Chandler. Lawler is a much tougher call, just because I still can't figure out where he would fit in Arizona.
Alex
12:16
Hi, I’m in an NL-only dynasty league using unbalanced categories.  5 hitting categories but only 4 for pitching - wins, saves, ERA and strikeouts.  My question is what’s going on with Sandy Alcantara?  We only have a single reserve spot to use for pitchers and mine is taken up by Bubba Chandler right now.  Would you hang onto Alcantatra in the hopes he turns it around?  He could get traded to the AL anyway in a couple months.  I’ll have Michael Soroka coming back soon, and free agent options are usually pretty slim
Ray Murphy
12:16
I assume you're looking for a more descriptive answer than "he's a mess", but I am afraid I don't have one. I haven't delved into his individual pitch data, but even with our metrics you can see that the velocity is (pretty much) back, the GB% is there too, but the command just isn't. I'll also gently point out that his xERA is "only" 4.87. When your actual ERA starts with an 8, you've been both bad and unlucky. At least the luck should get better soon. I'm not certain how much better an option Soroka is, but once you have a better option I'd be willing to make a switch.
Jake
12:17
Good morning Ray! Thank you for these chats. Could you rank your 2 favorite short term cornerman replacement among m-vargas, wagaman, o-cabrera, tellez, l-urias, r-urias? Thank
Ray Murphy
12:17
Vargas is doing some really interesting things right now, he'd top this list for me. If you're really looking short-term, my other one is L. Urias... Gelof isn't that far away, but I wouldn't mind riding Urias for another week or two.
Jake
12:20
Good morning Ray! Thank you so much for these chats. For next week? 1. The 3 best? Roupp bibee schmidt gallen gonsolin 2. The best? Tinocco Vest Bender l-jackson 3. The 2 best? J-Sanchez Frelick Kepler Thank you
Ray Murphy
12:20
I'm not up on next week's schedules yet. 1. Use our SP Matchup Scores...2. Vest for sure, 3. Again, haven't checked schedules, but in a vacuum Frelick.
Buff
12:24
NL only 11 team 5x5 roto keeper, gotta drop 1 or 2: Javier Sanoja, Ryne Nelson, Kyle Leahy, Phil Maton, Brett Baty, Brady House (latter 2 stashed on reserve): Who would you drop?
Ray Murphy
12:24
I think you can get away from Baty at this point. And I like Nelson, but there's not much value there in his current role.
Broken Bat
12:27
Welcome back Ray. RedSox ? Right up your alley. Although staying close in standings, the Sox are IMO burning days with sitting on their current roster-entitlements. Hamilton is no where contributing like he did in ‘24. Rafaela basically does what Hammy does. Apparently, Casas is still looking bad. I know you have no clue when either Mayer or Anthony get a call, but shouldn’t they both be getting some 1b in AAA? Does Casas have trade value? Can Devers play 1st. Layers here…
Ray Murphy
12:27
I have more faith in Casas than most... he seems to be coming around. I do think that Anthony is coming soon, with Rafaela shifting into Hamilton's role. Mayer is a tougher call, at least while Story is healthy and somewhat productive.
John
12:36
Surprise!  Jake Burger demoted.  He has been a slow starter in the past.  Who replaces him in the Ranger line-up?  Thoughts on duration of the demotion ?
Ray Murphy
12:36
Seems like Blaine Crim gets a look (Callup Report is interesting). As for Burger's return, I assume he's back as soon as he gets his swing straight. Hopefully just a couple of weeks of teeing off on AAA pitching.
Sidd F
12:37
Hi Ray! Thanks for doing this.  10-team NL-only 4x4, and I have two hitters coming off the DL and need to drop two of the following:  Starling Marte, Caleb Durbin, Jordan Walker.  (That's in CDG order.)  HQ is very bullish on Marte but he hasn't played to that level.  Durbin and Walker aren't great either but they have upside.  How would you rank them?
Ray Murphy
12:37
Yeah, I don't see much from Marte or Walker. I might hang on to Durbin and see what you get from him for a little while longer.
Travis
12:38
HQ subscriber, 15 team mixed.  Must drop two pitchers.  Please rank:  Houck, Gonsolin, Bello, Shane Smith CWS.  Thank you
Ray Murphy
12:38
Gonsolin. Wouldn't drop any of the other three willingly, but Houck if you have to.
Broken Bat
12:40
What is going on with Crawford of Seattle? Has hits in like 9 of last 10 games.
Ray Murphy
12:40
xBA in the .230s says he is out over his skis, but he used to be a BA-first guy, maybe he's getting back to that. Ride it while you can.
Talisker
12:40
AL only, standard rotis with keepers. My squad is overwhelmed with injuries, (6 of my original 14 hitters remain from the draft). Throwing darts, picked up Javy Baez and looking at Michael Vargas due to his recent hot streak. Once a very touted prospect, do you believe? Thanks.
Ray Murphy
12:40
Mentioned above, but yes, very interested in Vargas right now.
David
12:40
10 team NL only, 5X5 keeper league, can only keep 1 of Luis Arraez ($20) or Noelvi Marte ($5) both in their 1st year of a 3 year deal; your thoughts?
Ray Murphy
12:40
Marte for sure.
Judley
12:42
Quick dynasty question! 6X6 -- AVG/OBP/SLG/R/RBI/SB

Who do you prefer long-term -- Neto or McLain?

And I'd love to know why! =)

Happy Friday, all!

Paul
Ray Murphy
12:42
Neither has really demonstrated the skill of health, but I'll take Neto I think.
Rich
12:43
Hi Ray. Ty France is off to a nice start with the Twins after a great spring training, but he may actually have been unlucky so far: his wOBA is a respectable .333, but his xwOBA is a stellar .399. What do you expect from France ROS? Do you expect more power as reflected in his xwOBA and xSLG (.544), or more of the guy who has been unrosterable in 12-teamers the past couple of years?
Ray Murphy
12:43
Making a ton of contact, but it's not really hard contact, and too much of it is on the ground. I haven't checked recently, but I also know he was a big loser in our QBaB snap check a couple of weeks ago. More down than up from here, I think.
Rich
12:44
Related question: would you prefer Ty France or Taylor Ward ROS in a 12-team, 5X5 OBP league?
Ray Murphy
12:44
Ward... tepidly.
Ron
12:46
Thanks for the Friday chat, Ray.  Two questions. In a 12 team mixed I am working on a trade for Contreras (MIL), who is projected to be a large upgrade over my Realmuto. Yet his power/Statcast numbers are terrible. Are you worried about a hidden injury?   Second, rest of season projections for Kirby look really robust. Do  I treat him as a SP1r as soon as he steps back in? would you rank him ahead of the likes of Pivetta?
Ray Murphy
12:46
WmContreras... GBs are still an issue, but rest of his profile looks ok. I'm not super worried there.

And yes, I'd treat Kirby as an SP1 immediately upon return. Above Pivetta, yes.
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