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Meg Rowley FanGraphs Chat - 1/13/2020
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Meg Rowley
4:01
Hey pals, will get started here in a moment - just wrapping up a call!
Desperate for a chat
4:08
Hurry up, Meg
Scotty
4:08
Meg, hello
Meg Rowley
4:08
Hello am here!
4:09
Sorry about that, everyone. Had to chat with Appelman. Let us chat!
E.L.
4:09
If you're the Giants would you rather have as little money committed to 2022 as possible or would you spend a little now so your lineup isn't full of holes in a year?
Meg Rowley
4:14
I don't think those are mutually exclusive options, though I imagine the club will hue somewhat closely to their very-under-the-luxury-tax-threshold number. I think if there are free agents who they view as can't miss, the fact that they aren't quite at the threshold of their next competitive threshold shouldn't stop them. San Diego wasn't quite ready when they signed Manny Machado, but you don't get the chance to sign a Manny Machado every winter. Manny Machados are rare! And the Padres are sure glad to have him now. That said, I think the most important thing the Giants can do is see what they have in the still youngish guys on their roster. As we've seen, they're willing to cycle guys through to try to unearth some valuable players. Keep doing that, keep developing, win and profit, etc etc.
Guest
4:14
So the NL Playoff teams for the next 2-3 yrs are LAD, SDP, NYM, ATL, and whichever team is least mediocre in the central? I'm not sure "parity" should be a goal, but are there are good reasons to believe that other teams can dislodge the frontrunners?
Meg Rowley
4:18
They aren't in the same tier of farm system quality that San Diego was, but Miami has a lot of high upside, super high variance dudes in their system, which seems to be intentional, and also fairly savvy to me. If a few of those guys hit, you're in good shape! Arizona will always be in a tough spot because of the Dodgers and now the Padres, and their system is a little less deep after 2020 graduations, but they could be a Wild Card contender too.
4:19
And if Cincinnati has a better revenue year, they've shown a desire to win, even if they are shedding payroll now.
It isn't great, but there are a few options.
JJ
4:19
When do you think baseball went wrong in conflating cheap with smart?
Meg Rowley
4:22
This is a big question, and this answer won't get to all of it, but a big part of it is when being cheap wasn't as big a deal in being profitable or not. Clubs have a lot of non-baseball revenue streams now, and once you start decoupling profit from winning, you're in a bad way. I don't want to lend the impression that owners have always or even often been enthusiastic spenders, or that analytics, which has assisted in the optimization of rosters, didn't play its role, but that's part of it. When the Cubs are enthusiastic about real estate, something is amiss.
Myfanwy N.
4:22
Hi meg! Weird question: I read an article the other day about how people who grow up in SE Asia develop a "natural squat" due to the prevalence of squat toilets. Do you think a person with that kind of background who became a catcher would be less susceptible to knee injuries down the road? Would it give them a competitive advantage?
Meg Rowley
4:25
I don't know the article you're referencing, but I struggle to believe in the squattest of squatty pottys would prepare a person for the rigors of catching. Squatting assisted (what am I even talking about?!) is so different from unsupported squatting for three hours every day, and knees aren't the only catcher issue. They just really get the shit kicked out of them back there.
Interesting idea though
toshi
4:26
When do you think will be the earliest to see Kelenic and J Rod in the same outfield for the Ms? And who is the most likely 3rd outfielder then? Lewis, Trammell, or somebody else?  Thanks.
Meg Rowley
4:30
2022 -- I think we see Kelenic in 2021, but J Rod isn't ready just. Small sample, and I don't know how much of it is the wrist, but his LIDOM stint wasn't great, and it seemed like his breaking ball recognition could use some work. I think he'll be good, but a full minor league season would be very helpful. And by then, Lewis and probably Trammel, though some of that answer depends on what the deal is with Haniger is and whether Lewis sustains and stays healthy. Pretty sure Trammel has to get added to the 40-man this year, so that'll factor, too.
Concerned Citizen
4:30
Meg, it feels like your chats seem to overlap with political instability in the US. Any chance you move the chat to Thursday for a week to see if it is causal or just correlated? At this rate, your chats will coincide with Martian invasion.
Meg Rowley
4:30
Hey I had a really good track record before last week!
Derek
4:30
How many playoff teams will there be and also is there a universal DH for the season whose spring training starts in less than one month?
Meg Rowley
4:31
I'm going to say we revert to the prior Wild Card format and that we don't have a DH.
Excited to be very wrong!
Pared Jorter
4:32
Do you think Kluber or Paxton will have a higher WAR in 2021?
Meg Rowley
4:32
Paxton - the velo isn't what it was, at least not right now (he was up to 94 when he threw for teams a few weeks ago), but he has more wiggle room to work with.
Mike Rizzo
4:32
Do you like the Schwarber signing for the Nats?
Meg Rowley
4:34
You have to work really hard to pen a bad one-year deal, but yeah, I like this one. I think the bat is better than what he showed in 2020, the Nats need a boost to their outfield production away from Soto, and he's a natural option if I'm wrong about the DH and they find themselves needing one.
Guest
4:35
Hello! I don't have any questions. I just want to remind everyone that Francisco Lindor is now a New York Metropolitan.
Meg Rowley
4:35
I actually appreciate this reminder because what is time?
4:36
The Snell and Darvish deals? Those were just two weeks ago!
Cito's Mustache
4:36
What's your confidence level in the league pulling off a full 162 game season?
Meg Rowley
4:36
50/50, but my confidence they play at least 120 is very high?
Tom
4:36
Looking to deal Lamet and willing to move down the SP rankings. Who are good options to target?
Meg Rowley
4:36
It would be a good option to target this question at one of our fantasy writers!
4:37
(good luck, though!)
Rodney
4:37
Do you think the Pacific Northwest could support more major league baseball? Portland seems obvious, but the Greater Vancouver Area has 2.5 million people and wildly supported it's short-season team. Perhaps the jump to A-ball this year will help the case...
Meg Rowley
4:39
I assume the market research is pretty compelling or they wouldn't have entertained it to the degree they did (it being Portland). I think they could support a team. I don't know that they are the most starved for in-person access to baseball, so maybe that should sway things, but yeah, it would be a fun rivalry.
bighen
4:40
Better player over the next 5 years - Springer or Conforto ?  Basically if Mets need to allocate funds to one, which one should they prioritize ?  Don't cop out and say they don't need to allocate, they do.   Cohen is not going to set money on fire, he's just not.
Meg Rowley
4:44
I'd extend Conforto if I had to pick one. A lot of the injury stuff seems fluky, I think his bat is probably a wash, and while he's in left for a reason, he's also younger, and you figure Springer will move outta center in the course of a deal anyhow.
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