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Meg Rowley FanGraphs Chat - 1/14/2020
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Tino
2:13
How long will this Astros stuff distract us from the fact that we still haven’t been told much about how we’re going to fix the Rocket ball
Meg Rowley
2:13
Multiple things can require fixing at once.
Cove Dweller
2:14
Who is managing the Red Sox this season?
Meg Rowley
2:15
Wouldn't be surprised to see Ron Roenicke, at least on an interim basis. Normally falls to the bench coach.
2:16
I imagine baseball is going to take the decision out of Chaim Bloom and ownership's hands anyhow, but Cora isn't Chaim's guy, so I also wouldn't be surprised if we see a dismissal prior to the conclusion of the investigation.
2:17
And honestly, the Red Sox as an org are likely in for it, too - I'm sure there will be much pointing of fingers at Cora as someone who brought Astros DNA into the org, but they'll be repeat offenders.
Chris
2:18
Thoughts on Logan Morrison's statement?
Meg Rowley
2:18
That while I don't have special insight into those particular orgs that I would be shocked if this ends with Houston and Boston, and that fans of every team would be well served to avoid crowing too much lest they have to eat said crow.
Nick
2:19
Who manages the AL for the 2020 All-Star Game?  (For reference, the last time a pennant-winning manager had left baseball before the following season, it was Tony La Russa, who came out of retirement to coach the NL All Stars in 2012.  Somehow I doubt AJ Hinch will be doing something similar.)
Meg Rowley
2:20
Aaron Boone seems likely, right? Next winningest AL Manager.
I don't think the league would be grumpy about the Yankees' manager being on that broadcast a lot.
Who should be angriest?
2:22
The Dodgers? Kershaw specifically? The Yankees? Judge specifically (MVP)? General baseball fans because the sport is pretty bereft of integrity (especially with unpunished players)?
Meg Rowley
2:24
I think fringe pitching types whose careers were negatively impacted by their performance against Houston's hitters are first in line for me.
2:25
Kershaw and the Dodgers (we're assuming for these purposes they didn't get up to nonsense of their own) (me noting that assumption isn't meant to suggest they did get up to nonsense, simply that such nonsense would shift the calculus) (b a n g i n g s c h e m e) have their grievances to be sure, but he's still Clayton Kershaw. They're still a wildly successful franchise.
2:26
And I think fans should be mad. Baseball is made up. Not that it doesn't happen, but it happens the way it does because we say it does. It's not gravity. We need the way baseball is to feel like it works because it is so easy to remember that it is arbitrary and thus wonder if it matters. Whenever there's this sort of fraying of confidence, we risk making fans feel like they've wasted their time, and wonder if they shouldn't use that time for something else.
TKDC
2:27
Whose interests would be served by having a huge slew of MLB players suspended to start the season because they participated in sign stealing? Other than the AAAA players that would avoid the bus rides?
Meg Rowley
2:30
Baseball is a game that loves and is preoccupied with records. We like being able to say, this guy? He was this good. That instinct animates our entire site! And now we don't know. Or, we know mostly, but not all the way. I don't think suspensions for players are all that practical for the reasons Manfred laid out, and I imagine knowing they wouldn't get suspended improved the degree of candor present in their interviews, but there is something deeply unsatisfying about knowing that this central part of our interest in the game has been made a little less reliable. Who do we see about that?
Nolan
2:30
The Brewers have seen a tremendous amount of turnover this off season.  Overall, would you rather have the 2019 complement of Grandal, Moustakas, Thames, Grisham, Aguilar, and Shaw; or the projected 2020 complement of Sogard, Narvaez, Garcia, Urias, Smoak, and Gyorko?
Meg Rowley
2:30
The 2019 complement.
I'm not as down on Milwaukee as some, but 2019.
2:33
Just the drop from Grandal to Narvaez alone is... significant. Part of this is my distaste for bad framing. You know what sucks? That. Makes me sad.
Chuncey Wiggins
2:35
Is it just me or did the Braves receive a harsher punishment than the Astros?
Meg Rowley
2:36
It would appear that the org learned the cooperate with investigators lesson.
Also, neither of these situations is good, but, given the human impact of what Coppy got up to, it isn't surprising.
Jerome
2:37
Do you think the fallout from the Banging Scheme will have a material impact on the Astros 2020 performance? Are you now taking the under on their Steamer/ZIPS win projections because of this or no?
Meg Rowley
2:38
Organizational disruption can't be good for a baseball team, but the base talent is unchanged. I'm more concerned about the absence of Gerrit Cole than Jeff Luhnow, put it that way.
Sirras
2:40
I'm having trouble understanding why the Cardinals would be interested in trading for Arenado but weren't interested in bidding for Rendon. The dollar figures are similar but Arenado costs prospects while Rendon just cost cash. Any ideas?
Meg Rowley
2:41
Some of it might be where Rendon wanted to be. Teams are often weird or cheap, but we should remember that free agents have non-monetary preferences too.
Jason N
2:41
Is there a disincentive for players to act as whistleblowers on sign stealing?  As in... teams get fined millions of dollars.  Some of those teams may not choose to just absorb the cost and as a result spend less on the field product, leaving less money for the players?  Would the MLBPA ever counsel players to keep it quiet?
Meg Rowley
2:43
I don't want to speculate about the last one, but yes, I would imagine there is real risk there. I imagine Fiers' motivations were complex - some noble, some a touch petty - but there is no denying the risk involved. Teams are paranoid about non-banging scheme info leaking. Imagine how they feel about the potential for giving away the banging scheme store?
Roger
2:43
How would *you* answer Craig's question on trade value?
Meg Rowley
2:44
Lindor, Betts, Bryant, Arenado
TKDC
2:44
Crane owns the team. The fine and lost picks hurt the team and by extension they hurt Crane.
Meg Rowley
2:46
No one is saying they don't hurt. They're saying they don't hurt sufficiently, either as punishment for the Astros or as a deterrent for future bad behavior.
P
2:46
Say the Astros (or Sox) come back and win it all again this year. Do we view the penalties in a different light or does the story line become “maybe they really were good”?
Meg Rowley
2:47
No one thinks the Astros weren't good last year, and the Astros weren't, as far as the report concludes, doing this last year.
Nolan
2:47
between his handling of the Taubmann thing, his exit statement, and overall reputation, is Luhnow just a Bad Dude?
Meg Rowley
2:48
I don't know him, but if he isn't, he does one hell of an impression, and at some point, you just are what your record shows.
BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins
2:48
Would Greta Gerwig have got an Oscar nom if "Little Women" was titled "Banging Scheme"?
Meg Rowley
2:48
Not convinced you understood the plot of Little Women
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