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Meg Rowley FanGraphs Chat - 1/15/18
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Patrick
2:25
My dad and I are taking a trip to Spring Training in Arizona for the first time this year.  If you've been before, do you have any tips for our first Spring Training trip?
Meg Rowley
2:26
Definitely book accommodations now. For a city that is very budget-friendly every other time of the year, it gets wildly expensive down there in March and April.
Airport Banana
2:26
Which 5+ WAR player form 2018 has the highest chance of finishing below replacement level?
Meg Rowley
2:27
A moment to allow me to look at something, please.
2:29
I don't think he goes below replacement level, but I could see Matt Chapman being a little closer to mortal just because of the shoulder and how important defense is to the profile.
(he is very good, I am not saying he isn't good)
Michael J
2:31
With it looking less likely the Dodgers pony up and sign Harper, should they settle for Pollock? I think a Joc, Bellinger, Verdugo outfield vs righties is definitely good enough, but some combination of Taylor, Kiké, Bellinger, Verdugo vs lefties might be a bit risky, especially if Bellinger doesn’t start hitting lefties again.
Meg Rowley
2:31
Maybe, though truly, how is he not on Cleveland's roster right this minute.
Damian
2:32
Who are the best players that are going to get screwed on playing time this year?
Meg Rowley
2:32
[insert young Mets infielder name]
[you can one of several]
[there are several to choose from]
Casual fan
2:32
How much faith do you put into MLB the Show's predictions?
Meg Rowley
2:33
I don't play the Show, so very little, but only for not having seen them.
Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes
2:33
How much reason is there to be optimistic about the Rays getting 2017 Garcia?
Meg Rowley
2:33
Jeff is going to look at Garcia for FanGraphs dot com today!
DJ Tanner
2:34
For how many 10 year contracts that have gone bad, why are people upset that Harper and Machado aren't getting "paid"? 7-8 year deals seem like they should become the new norm. No one can predict health 10 years out, I can see large yearly salaries with less years. If Harper/Machado get 7 year deals AND stay healthy, they can still make good money in their age 33 contract year. Way less long term risk for clubs.
Meg Rowley
2:35
People are upset because teams are reticent to do $300 million contracts in 7-8 year chunks, and acknowledge that players also assume risk in every deal, and have (generally) been compensated at a discount in the years prior to 10-year, $300 million deals.
Jeff B
2:36
Thanks for chatting, Meg! Is Jesse Winker's defense bad enough that the Reds would do best by attempting to trade him to an AL team? And would AL teams value the kind of offensive approach that Winker employs at the DH position?
Meg Rowley
2:39
I will admit to the following-- I have watched precisely two innings of Jesse Winker defense in which I watched the defense closely. He wasn't great! But I don't know if it is irredeemably poor. As for DHing, he's a good hitter but the power hasn't been super consistent at the upper levels. Imagine he stays a Red.
Southerner
2:39
Vlad Goerrero or Alex Bregman?  Short term versus long term.
Meg Rowley
2:40
Woof hmmm.
2:41
I am going to say Bregman because the profile is more versatile but Vladito's bat make the convo closer than it has business being.
Guest
2:41
If Harper re-sign with the Nats, they will have 5 outfielders for 3 spots (Harper, Soto, Eaton, Robles, Michael Taylor). What do you foresee them doing in that scenario?
Meg Rowley
2:41
Not re-signing Bryce Harper, and I'm not just saying that because I turned in a BP Annual essay for the Nats predicated on that assumption.
2:44
But if they did, I imagine Harper, Soto, Eaton to start, with Robles up at a moment convenient to the team.
Baseball is a fun diversion
2:44
If you could turn into one Major League team's mascot for one year, what would it be?
Meg Rowley
2:45
Seems like being a tiger would be cool.
Seems like being the Phanatic would be terrifying.
tb.25
2:45
Me growley about the lack of moves being made
Meg Rowley
2:45
Same.
Airport Banana
2:46
As of today, what are the odds of a work stoppage at some point before the 2021 season?
Meg Rowley
2:47
I don't think we see one before this CBA runs out. I do think we get one before the next CBA goes into effect.
Patrick
2:48
Since 2013, Eric Hosmer has alternated between around a 0 WAR and a 3+ WAR (3.1, -0.2, 3.5, 0.2, 4.1, -0.1).  Which is more likely to happen: Hosmer puts up a 3+ WAR in 2019 or Khris Davis has a batting average of exactly 0.247 (which he has done every year since 2015)?
Meg Rowley
2:48
I'll take Hosmer and the WAR but I don't love it. I don't feel confident.
CamdenWarehouse
2:48
The Steve Stone Interview was awesome. I'd love more pieces like that.
Meg Rowley
2:49
David did a nice job with it.
He does a fair number of long Q&A's like that each year, so keep an eye out for them.
mike sixel
2:49
How bad is the next strike/CBA negotiation going to be? I mean, the money is just flowing to owners, and not players.
Meg Rowley
2:50
Going to be pretty bad! The power dynamic is pretty out of balance and the players have one big bit of leverage to try to get it back in balance.
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