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Meg Rowley FanGraphs Chat - 1/7/2020
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Meg Rowley
2:00
Hello and welcome to the chat!
Also, Happy New Year!
Couple of things to highlight today.
2:01
Our prospect lists keep humming along. The Astros dropped today: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-40-prospects-houston-astros/
Next up will be Cardinals and Mets in some order.
Jay continues his HOF coverage with the fourth set of one-and-dones: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2020-hall-of-fame-ballot-one-...
2:02
I really like these - I think it's nice to recall careers like this, and give them their due, even if Brad Penny and Josh Beckett and dudes like them don't have a shot of getting in.
2:03
And of course, our transaction coverage continues. Just from today, you have Dan on a pair of Nats signings: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/nats-sail-on-the-hudson-punt-on-the-thames...
Peter
2:04
Hi Meg! If Rich Hill is healthy through the season, do you think the Twins will use him as a starter? Or what is the best strategy for Hill in the upcoming year?
Meg Rowley
2:04
Yes, I imagine so. I think it is fair to be skeptical of how many innings he ends up throwing, but even if it is toward the back of their rotation, it's an upgrade.
Not Jerry Dipoto
2:05
How different do you feel about this bad Mariners team than those of years prior? This is their first true rebuild in maybe ever.
Meg Rowley
2:07
Not really their first one, but I like this group of prospects. It never feels great for fans when they're told to be more excited about the group in Triple-A than the one in the big league park, and I remain curious (a generous word) about whether the team will commit payroll to free agents (and who those dudes might be) when the young core is ready, but we like the system a lot.
hurtado
2:07
Dropping a Malcom Gladwell shade insult greatest thing I've heard on EW.
Meg Rowley
2:08
I think rigor is good, and something Gladwell appears toxically allergic to is all. I do regret any actual comp to Sam, who is very good at his job, and a dear friend.
Jon G
2:08
My team's ownership is making me sad. In this sure to be frustrating year, what suggestions would you, in general, give for maximizing one's baseball enjoyment? This can include fun teams to watch, places/events to visit/attend, etc.
Meg Rowley
2:09
I think to the extent you can, go watch some minor league ball. It's less expensive, which automatically lowers the stakes on your enjoyment, it'll make you appreciate big league ball more, and the vibe can be really fun.
2:10
Apart from that, make use of your MLB TV sub. Good baseball teams do exist, even if they aren't your favorite team.
Happy White Sox fan
2:10
Meg! The White Sox keep spending and add Cishek! I am suddenly way too optimistic. Are.....they actually going to be a fun baseball team?
Meg Rowley
2:12
I think they will be fun. How fun is going to depend at least some on the pitchers coming back from injury, but I like this thing they're doing where they are clearly trying to win. I wish that the pre-debut extension to guarantee a spot on the Opening Day roster would go away, but they're going to be pretty good and fun, and have more help coming.
2:13
It's pretty neat to look at the Central and not feel completely awful anymore.
JKD
2:13
I don't really have a question, I just want to say that as a Nats fan, I strongly approve of their "sign a bunch of old guys who are still good at baseball" offseason program. Maybe it won't work, but they did just win the World Series! And old baseball guys can be fun to root for.
Meg Rowley
2:14
They can be - clearly they are a much better team if they manage to snag Donaldson, but should they not, this approach ain't a bad one.
David
2:15
How much does signing Cishek benefit the sox?
Meg Rowley
2:15
Not a ton, I'd imagine (the projections are skeptical and so am I) but bullpen depth is never, ever a bad idea
just never bad to have
Baseball Guy
2:16
Any chance we'll ever find out who exactly cheated in the sign-gate thing, and how much it affected their stats? Another asterisk coming?
Meg Rowley
2:18
It sounds like when MLB announces their punishment we'll actually get a fair amount of detail, but I'd imagine it'll focus more on the front office personnel and field staff who planned it rather than the players - most of the work on how much this benefited the team (including Jake Mailhot's analysis for us) suggested that while the team benefited in aggregate, the individual effects were much smaller: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/which-players-might-have-benefited-from-th...
2:19
And it is tricky with guys like Bregman. How much is sign stealing vs. natural adjustment in a young player? No one is saying these dudes aren't already super talented.
2:20
Which isn't to excuse the scheme. I think a lot of people were surprised that there wasn't a larger observable effect on the individual player level, but I think Jake put it well when he said that "when you have an organizational culture that values the cumulative effects of many marginal improvements, implementing a sign-stealing system to help your batters gain an edge, even a small one, might be just what you’re looking for."
Me Growley
2:20
So now the Sox got nabbed for cheating in 2018.  How many more teams will get nabbed before a blanket rule is implemented?
Meg Rowley
2:21
I think we'll see clear and specific rule stuff no matter what. But I also would caution any fan base from crowing too much - I think the idea that this was contained to teams with Astros DNA is pretty naive.
Ben
2:21
Do you have an estimate as to when Steamer projections and player pages might be available for Shogo Akiyama, Yoshi Tsutsugo, Kwang-hyun Kim, and Shun Yamaguchi?
Meg Rowley
2:22
Takes a little doing for guys who don't have MLB playing time, but it is being worked on. No, I did not give you a specific estimate. Aren't I a scamp?
(we're working on it, promise promise)
The write ups on those transactions do have ZiPS projections, if you want something to hold you over.
Guest
2:23
If you had $5 mil to spend to improve the Blue Jays, what would you do with it?
Meg Rowley
2:24
On a marketing campaign to convince the team to spend more than $5 million? There are marginal improvements to be made, and I do like what they have done to improve the rotation, though.
lee
2:25
Happy New Year, Meg! Do you think, given the new revelations from The Athletic today, that when it's over, we'll see significant penalties against FO/Ownership rather than players (and how significant? loss of draft picks, int'l $, suspensions/bans)? Thanks :)
Meg Rowley
2:27
I think both to deter future infractions (and not complicate the discipline with the CBA) it'll focus on front office folks and field staff, with some hefty fines thrown in for good measure. I would be surprised if there are lifetime bans, but I think loss of draft picks and pool space, as well as suspensions and individual fines in addition to org ones are on the table.
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