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Meg Rowley FanGraphs Chat - 11/12/19
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Big Fan
2:28
If MLB finds that the Astros were stealing signs, shouldn't the penalty be as drastic as what the Braves got for their international signings?
Meg Rowley
2:29
Seems premature to talk about punishments without knowing the extent of the offense, and as Fiers points out, this has an effect on players but these seem categorically distinct from one another.
Sirras
2:30
You actually misunderstand, the site melted down but I agree that the integrity and honesty of the writers is admirable. I'm just sad that I can't read it anymore!
Meg Rowley
2:30
Ah, my apologies. Yeah, it is a really bad development, for sports media, and media generally.
Derek Smalls
2:30
Hi Meg! It's been a long time since I've been to Cooperstown, but I want to say the museum DOES tell the story of the game, warts and all. IIRC, Pete Rose is all over the museum, but doesn't have a plaque in the Hall of Fame. Is that right?
Meg Rowley
2:32
Pretty weird to have Selig in there, but to exclude PED users -- I realize that is a recent development but that doesn't feel like an especially honest accounting of the game's recent history (as an example)
BPLee
2:32
also...kikuchi...you think he'll have a better sophomore season?
Meg Rowley
2:33
Would be hard for it to be much worse, and have him still be rosterable. Eric made a good point on FG Audio recently that because of his pitch mix, the changes to the ball might have hit him especially hard vs. what he was used to with the ball in Japan.
2:34
Seems possible. He doesn't have a good fastball, so the margin for error is just smaller to begin with.
Lebron James' Food truck guy
2:34
am i the only one that thinks the dodgers' predicament is a little more nerve racking than 7 straight division titles would care to predict? Rising padres & dbacks squads, significant bullpen questions and a thinning starting rotation for the boys in blue... just feels the media is penciling them in for an 8th straight in their tone and its just gonna be a different year next year... thoughts?
Meg Rowley
2:36
That it is November 12, so we aren't really penciling anyone in for anything yet? They have money, good prospects, and good player development, plus a big league roster that is already quite talented. That isn't to say the things you mentioned aren't possible issues, only that they are pretty well positioned to deal with those issues..
Billy Beane
2:37
Hey Meg, how's life?
Meg Rowley
2:37
Life is good, and returning to a more sustainable pace following the postseason.
StrongGlad
2:38
Are you saddened by the news of Kristopher Negrón's retirement?
Meg Rowley
2:38
He's very well-liked around the game - imagine if he wants to stay involved with baseball, he'll get the opportunity.
Chris
2:40
I know last year it was a bummer with guys like Keuchel getting signed late in the season. Do you think his performance encourages or discourages teams from the practice?
Meg Rowley
2:43
So, the guys who signed as late as he did were essentially him and Kimbrel. Kimbrel is locked up through 2021 and while in a similar contract situation going into the draft, isn't really a Keuchel comp. I don't think Keuchel's 2019 did a whole lot to change the likelihood of him getting a long term deal. He was largely the same guy, is now older, and I imagine will go in with diminished expectations of his market.
2:44
I think Kiley and Brendan's take in the Top 50 was right: that's he's probably going to post a couple more years of 2-point-something WAR as an innings-eating fourth starter for a contending club. That guy has value, just not the value Keuchel assumed last winter.
(reportedly)
2-D
2:44
Do you have any opinion either way on the increasing amount of states that have legalized sports betting? Is that an avenue that will affect FG coverage in the future?
Meg Rowley
2:46
That second thing is tbd. I do know that I will likely need to learn more about sports betting than I know now regardless and I am mad about it. It just isn't how I think about the sport or want to engage with it, but it looks like I'll need to.
E.L.
2:47
Who do you see as potentially nice buy-low candidates in free agency?
Meg Rowley
2:47
I'm going to sound like I am snarking and I only sort of am: pretty much everyone outside the top 15 relative to what they would have once commanded?
2:48
More seriously, seems like there's always a starter who flashes in a way his contract makes surprising.
2:49
So dunno, maybe Lyles, depending on what version of him is the real one?
Red Flags
2:49
Stras seems like a big injury risk. Most innings he has ever thrown in his career, has not been durable and is on the wrong side of 30. I think the only chance he gets big money is by tricking the Lerners. I can't see another team paying a lot of money for him
Meg Rowley
2:50
I don't think that is an accurate read of Stras' market.
Jeff
2:50
What gets Lindor to the Cubs?
Meg Rowley
2:51
Seriously doubt they have the prospect capital for that.
Jason N
2:51
I’m puzzled why the Padres aren’t being connected more with Ryu?  They need TOR pitching, he won’t command a lot of years, he’s already comfortable in SoCal, and Nomo in the front office can have a big recruiting role (like he did with Ohtani).
Meg Rowley
2:51
It's November 12. I'm not saying they're the leading candidates, but it is November 12.
v2micca
2:52
Question regarding the Bryant Grievance.  What is actually on the table?  If the Arbiter 100% sides with the Bryant camp (unlikely as that is) what is he actually empowered to award?  Could he theoretically declare Bryant a free agent effective immediately?
Meg Rowley
2:53
I don't believe so, but he could award him the service time he needs (which I think is literally a day) to be a free agent in 2021.
Astros
2:53
They seem like kind, ethical people.
Meg Rowley
2:56
Like any club, there are a lot of different sorts of folks who work for Houston. It's good to acknowledge there are good eggs there, if only to remind ourselves that they hardly have a monopoly on the Taubman's of the world. But that's why it is useful to understand this stuff in terms of culture. Are the good eggs sufficiently empowered? What is the team's institutional approach? The last couple of years haven't offered particularly inspiring answers to those questions, which is bad on its own, but also concerning given how keen other teams, faced with the Astros' success, seem to be to mimic the Astros.
Nicholas
2:57
If sign-stealing is as pervasive as implied by the recent news about the Astros, is it odd that MLB has the smallest home-field advantage of any sport?  Wouldn't home-park sign-stealing systems create a larger disadvantage for visitors?
Meg Rowley
2:58
That's hard to answer without knowing a lot of other things like how pervasive it actually is, how good or bad teams are at it, how much it is helping to elevate the performance of bad hitters vs. making already good hitters better, etc.
Reynolds
2:58
Do you think more players will elect to take their teams to arbitration in light of increased suspicion about owners' attempts to tamp down spending?
Meg Rowley
2:59
I think it depends on the player and the resources they have at their disposal to prep for arbitration, and how likely they think they are to succeed, which might very depending on how good they are, the position they play, etc. But I think you are right that we are likely to see the overall posture of players be more antagonistic the closer we get to the next CBA negotiation.
Jeff
3:00
What moves *can* the Cubs make? I ask because I keep hearing people tell me the Cubs say they're poor (they haven't), have no prospects (because listicles say so or something), and maybe should rebuild
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