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Meg Rowley FanGraphs Chat - 12/18/18
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Meg Rowley
2:00
Hello all!
And welcome to the chat. It is very nice to be back here with you after our jaunt to Vegas.
Dann
2:01
Why would anyone, let alone a contender like the Cubs, invest 2 years and $5m into Daniel Descalso, who can't play shortstop, when Ian Happ and David Bote each offer basically the same flexibility with considerably more upside at less cost?
Meg Rowley
2:01
Because he's made some adjustments that make him much more interesting, everyone needs a bench, and it isn't very much money.
pelkey
2:02
Since you're a Vegas expert now, what would you say the odds are haniger gets traded?
Meg Rowley
2:02
I'd still be surprised if they do it, but I think the odds are higher now than they were say, three weeks ago. That's less a Vegas thing than their plan coming into focus. But I think they'd need to be pretty well blown away.
Roma Condesa
2:02
Hi Meg.  Are you concerned that teams' increasingly sophisticated informational-gathering player development tools (like wearables, for example) violate player privacy, and do you think the Union will make this an issue during negotiations?
Meg Rowley
2:03
There are a couple different buckets of labor issues I'm worried about and in terms of "things that the Union should get out ahead of better than they have" this is at the top.
2:04
As Sheryl noted in her piece on the subject, other players' unions have taken proactive steps to hem in the possible uses of wearable tech, of which there are many, many of which are very useful to players.
But it also constitutes a changed condition in the relationship between ownership and the players.
hi
2:05
Are the mets one Harper/Machado away from being a legitimate WS contender?
Meg Rowley
2:06
It sure would help a lot! Probably more than that, but either of those guys would make me sit up and take notice.
Old Timer
2:06
If the A's settle this offseason for "leftovers," especially in pitching, can we expect serious 2019 regression and the high probability of a missed playoff opportunity?  The A's can't seriously be expecting rookies like Puk and Luzardo to be second half saviors, can they?
Meg Rowley
2:07
A lot comes down to pitching health. I doubt the offense will perform at quite the level it did last year, and they haven't brought back Laurie. They're an interesting team, but the rotation is problem.
Syndergaardians of the Galaxy
2:07
Now that the Mets have decided to keep Syndergaard, have signed an all-star catcher, and look like they'll have a bullpen that won't give me ulcers, I am SUO
Meg Rowley
2:08
I don't feel like there is a clear front runner in that division yet, but all it would take is one really big move to change my mind.
Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free
2:08
Keith Law said he ran into you during the winter meetings.  You two should do a podcast about things outside of baseball. Just an idea.
Meg Rowley
2:10
One of the best things about Winter Meetings, indeed the best thing, is getting to see friends who live far away, and also, meet people who you've interacted with online but never met in person. Really nice to finally meet Keith. We mostly talked about the food scene in Seattle, but that was nice!
hooha
2:10
With the pretty damning Marlins prospect list unveiled today, are you surprised the Marlins seem to be targeting major league ready talent for Realmuto?
Meg Rowley
2:12
It isn't a strong system. Great names, but not especially good players. I think they're looking at who is going to populate the next young core. That can be achieved in a variety of ways, but mostly, they have to stick the landing. This is their big move, and as Eric and Kiley noted, the org is in a much better position to make moves in terms of front office staff than they were a year ago.
Gotta get someone worthwhile.
carrotjuice
2:12
Do you think Descalso ends up hitting more like Steamer projects him (94 wRC+) or ZiPS (85 OPS+)? I guess an additional option could be "the swing change sticks and he's an above average hitter in 2019"?
Meg Rowley
2:14
I guess I'd land somewhere right around 100, with possible upside if the swing change sticks and helps. We've seen guys get temporary relief before only to have their numbers settle back closer to their historical averages.
Nick
2:15
Hi Meg! Here's a list of 2018 Indians who probably won't be back next season: Brantley, Donaldson, Rajai, Melky, Chinsenhall, Guyer, Gomes, Yonder, Encarnacion, Yandy, Allen, Miller!! :(

Do you think this means the front office will be able to invest in FA outfield help without trading Kluber/Bauer?  Any further purely cost-cutting measures are going to be really difficult to stomach.
Meg Rowley
2:15
What do I want them to do? Spend some money on the outfield and keep their pitchers. What do I think they'll do? Probably not that. As a fan, I would find this approach uniquely frustrating.
Red
2:16
Let's say Houston was able to land Nelson Cruz, play Brantley in the outfield, and use Tucker to acquire Realmuto. What's the over/under on how many games they lose this season, like, ten?
Meg Rowley
2:17
They were pretty incredible last year and still managed to lose more than that, but yeah, they're the class of that division for sure
2:18
Now, I thought they would snap up Cruz and they haven't, but I like the Brantley move very, very much.
Mike
2:18
You've been tapped to produce Lifetime's newest Christmas movie about Christmas and baseball. Is the main character A) An under-performing GM who's been given one last shot to improve his roster during the Winter Meetings B) A struggling veteran who heads to a Latin American Winter League to impress scouts, or C) A young Catcher who changes his off-season workout/diet routine to ensure a healthy, productive season?
Meg Rowley
2:19
All of the Lifetime Christmas movies feature romantic subplots so probably B or C, because they have more obvious non-work environments to be in?
Josh
2:20
Would a true salary cap, similar to the NFL, help or hurt baseball? What are the biggest impediments that prevent a salary cap?
Meg Rowley
2:20
I mean, the sport effectively has one now.
tb.25
2:20
With the NHL expansion, will we soon lose you to hockey graphs.com?
Meg Rowley
2:21
Nah. I love baseball more than some members of my family. Plus I don't know hockey nearly well enough to talk about it, or write about it.
Nick
2:21
I know it’s not super common, but why do players ever agree to deferred salary?
Meg Rowley
2:22
I'd imagine it's a matter of personal risk tolerance-- I imagine for a lot of them, the idea of guaranteed money long after they've played is a comfort. They lose out on the ability to invest that money now, of course, but they also are doing pretty well as it stands.
Guest
2:23
So the Astros could really use some starters right?
Meg Rowley
2:23
It wouldn't hurt!
As it stands, I imagine they'd stretch McHugh back out again, but there are definitely innings to go around.
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